None of us can predict the future. From what I saw here on the forum a lot of us thought this game was a coin flip yet the same people were on Atlanta! Some of us keep making the same mistakes over and over again and we don't even realize it. Last night while I was looking at the first game on the board (Pitt vs Minnesota) my original pick was Pitt. I thought the game was a toss up and my opinion was that Pittsburgh would win this toss up. I layed $75 to win $50 and I looked it again. I was shook. I thought, hey, I'm laying 3:2 on a game that I think is a toss up?? This doesn't seem right! So I did something I don't do with my bigger bets, I changed my pick. Money has a way of toying with the way you think. There is a very simple logic to this game: bet the side that will win more often than the odds say it should. If you can do that you will be a winner! If you put your entire bankroll on one game you may win. And congratulations to you if you do, but you're a favorite to be broke in the near future. You may lose having made the right pick. The point of this thread is not to lecture; most of you all know these things already. But very few of us have the balls to apply them when we see a situation that fits the criteria. A winner loses a lot of bets and losers win a lot too. We didn't necessarily do something right to win and we didn't necessarily do something wrong to lose.
-
-
Lol and had the steelers won.. You'd be kicking yourself over it . Go with the team you like regardless of the odds. Books want you to look at their odds and pick games off that (I.e Denver vs Philly) -10 you think Philly has a chance but not even close. Same thing next week Denver -3.5 bought down to -2.5 is a gift but if you bet using your theory off higher odds on a toss up is better you'll lose.Comment -
And now a message from our final Hero....
ILLOGICAL MAN
"Hi boys and girls, remember if your amazing logic leads you to believing a game is a coin flip bet the underdog. As this will give you a guaranteed win even with the vig. After all you are sure to know more about the chances of each team than the bookmakers"
Thanks Illogical manComment -
Buddy the bookmakers don't give a penetrate what the teams chances are.They make a premium from booking any bet winner or loser. The more bets they book the more money they make. If you have 5000 idiots betting on Pittsburgh and 1000 idiots betting on Minnesota the line is going to move but this won't change the outcome of the game. If it was a coin flip than you're better off taking the underdog in this spot regardless of who you like which is exactly what I did.Comment -
Tonight our hero's face their toughest challenge yet.... Monday Night Football [DUN DUN DUN]...
Capitan Obvious: "Ok super friends, tonight our goal is to make money on this football game. To do this we choose a winning team"
Hindsight Kid: "But captain the game is still hours away, I can't post my pick for the game until its over or at the very least a team has a multi score lead"
Illogical Man: "Don't worry friends, my trusty faulty science computer will help us pick the winner tonight"
Captain Obvious: "Fault science computer? What is this contraption"
Illogical Man: "It is my full proof betting system programmed into this Toshiba Handibook. It is based on flawed logic, gut feelings, 3 hour old line-up information which the books have already accounted for and most importantly random guesses"
Hindsight Kid: "Amazing Illogical man"
Illogical Man: "Now we simply put the ML and Spread information into the faulty science computer and our bet for the game will be produced"
.......Computing.........
Captain Obvious: "Ah ha, the faulty science computer says that The Saints have a 80% chance to win the game so given they are paying 1.33/-300 we should bet on them"
The Amazing- doesn't actually understand what the word 'juice' means - Man: "But Capitan -300 is so much juice why would we bet $100 to only win $33"
Illogical Man: "That's a good point super friend"
Hindsight Kid: "Wait super friends the Toshiba Handibook is calculating another meaningless prediction"
Captain Obvious: "Well look at this chums, the flawed science computer is now saying the Saints are a 55% favourite to cover the 7 point spread, but are paying $2/+100. So we should bet it"
Illogical Man: "Amazing Captain.... looks like another nationally televised football game has been solved, what do you think of our bet Hindsight Kid"
Hindsight Kid: "Ill let you know after the game"Comment -
Hey buddy I have a thread and I post all my picks with the amounts before the games.Comment -
Which part would you like to play Jikos? At first I had you pegged for either Capitan Obvious or Illogical man, but next time I think ill introduce a new character written just for you based on this post....
The trusty....
Only Bets Underdogs Dog
Every super bettors best friendComment -
Nope I was on Atlanta last night. Thanks for keeping my thread bumped.Comment -
Its my thread now....
Friends, Countrymen, SBRomans, stay tuned for the continuing adventures of...
The Super BettorsComment -
Alright buddy just tail me if you need winners. I'm here for you.Comment -
NFL point spread winners are pure guesses the Moneyline I would think it's not as much as I guess
Point spread outcomes of any sport are randomComment -
LOL Dude, don't know how you have so much time on your hands, but hats off you're making me laugh hahaha
Lets always play NFL Alternates lines - That's always about +200 odds...Comment
