Allusions of Grandeur

[mebaran]

Let's play a game. I post my plays starting in the next couple of weeks, and you try to figure out how I'm picking them (patterns).

Tried this in other sports, to no avail. But one night I had an epiphany and the next morning I decided to tackle the worlds sharpest lines. Months later (now), I believe the fruit is hanging low enough for me to grab some edge. I'll post my plays here because what better way to test a strategy than to test it in a live market!?

Plays will start in the next two weeks and will pick up in volume as the season progresses. Good luck, me!

(As always, feel free to critique, contribute, berate, or follow.)

[mebaran]

Alright, so I'm going to release these early. There may be some more plays as the lines keep coming out too, so just watch for them.

The first 5-6 weeks of the season, I'm going to bet a little less than my normal unit size since there are small samples. Edge exists, but there is more risk, so adjust accordingly.

Plays for week 3:

TEN -3 (-120) to win 0.75 units
STL +3.5 to win 0.75 units
ARI +7.5 to win 0.75 units

Also leaning BAL +2.5, but this is assuming Ray Rice gets some touches this week. He doesn't haveto get 25+ touches for me to dislike +2.5....but he does have to play at a high level.

[mebaran]

Happy about the movement in the ARI line. Looks like it will settle on 7 barring anything crazy. STL line is hanging at 4, which I'm not happy about...but my model HATES the Cowboys right now. Going to keep an eye on that. TEN I paid extra juice on 3 when I probably could have been patient and got it for even vig. Oh well.

(For the record, if I don't post prices on the spreads, assume they're -110....I unfortunately don't have access to Pinny... =(

[Noleafclover]

There is no more apt place to say:

I do not think that word means what you think it means.

What does that have to do with the price of butter, you may ask?

To that I say- Wrong wrong wrong wrong, wrong wrong wrong wrong. You're wrong. You're wrong.

2 sbr points here for anyone who got all 3... erm... whatchamacallems.

[mebaran]

There is no more apt place to say:

I do not think that word means what you think it means.

What does that have to do with the price of butter, you may ask?

To that I say- Wrong wrong wrong wrong, wrong wrong wrong wrong. You're wrong. You're wrong.

2 sbr points here for anyone who got all 3... erm... whatchamacallems.

I'm sorry, I don't follow. Are you referring to line movement as not being an indicator anymore?

[Noleafclover]

Allusions are references, illusions are false presentations. Since no one played my game, the allusions were to Princess Bride, Kingkiller Chronicle books, and Scrubs.

Edit: You might say I was alluding to your vocabulary's eluding you and leaving you ill-used.

[mebaran]

...was wondering when I'd get someone to tell me "Dude....I think you mean DELUSIONS..."

[Noleafclover]

Thought you were going for this: http://gatherer.wizards.com/pages/Ca...verseid=159749

[mebaran]

Who DOESN'T want to gain +20 life ?

Illusion of Grandeur! (Erosions of vocabulary)

[mebaran]

0-2-1 this week, -1.65 units

[mebaran]

Early bet for next week:

DAL -2 to win 1 unit

[mebaran]

Early bet for next week:

DAL -2 to win 1 unit

and adding NYG +4 to win 1 unit

[mebaran]

adding:

IND -8 to win 1 unit
SEA -3 (+101) to win 1.01 units

[pulledclear]

Dead as a Hammer.

[mebaran]

Dead as a Hammer.

Pardon? You on a different side/sides?

[mebaran]

adding:

PIT PK
CHI +3

Saw the PIT line come up on Bookmaker at +1.5 and immediately clicked it to enter a bet, and when I entered it, it had already shot to PK....DAMN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mebaran]

Just cleaning up a bit and consolidating all plays for week 4 into one post:

DAL -2 to win 1 unit
NYG +4 to win 1 unit
IND -8 to win 1 unit
SEA -3 (+101) to win 1.01 units
PIT PK to win 1 unit
CHI +3 to win 1 unit

[mebaran]

This week: 1-4-1, -3.4 units
Overall: 1-6-2, -5.05 units

^^Fade material

[mebaran]

Plays for next week (please be 18):

BAL +3 to win 1 unit
NE +2 to win 1 unit
SEA -2.5 to win 1 unit
SD -4 to win 1 unit