NFL Playoffs: Saturday wild card doubleheader preview
NFL Playoffs: Saturday wild card doubleheader preview
The most exciting time of the year, the NFL Playoffs, kicks off Saturday with a pair of wild card tilts. The matinee may lack marquee value, but the matchup between the Falcons and the Cards should be an exciting one. Atlanta won 11 games this season, as Mat Ryan is a better passer than Michael Vick ever was, while Kurt Warner will get some MVP votes. The big matchup is the night game, pitting the red-hot Colts and Chargers.
Happy New Year, and welcome to 2009. Will it be better than 2008? I like the odds. I also like the odds that we’re going to see some excellent football during the NFL Wild-Card Round. As you’re certainly aware by now, all four Wild Cards are small favorites this weekend. Let’s jump right in and take a gander at Saturday’s action.
Atlanta (-2) at Arizona
Offensive Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan (87.7 QB rating) is simply a better passer than Michael Vick (75.7 career rating), and while Vick’s running skills are undeniable, the Falcons already have that part of the game covered quite nicely. Atlanta was second in the NFL in rushing yardage (2,443) during the regular season, third in first downs (131) and eighth in yards per carry (4.4).
The Falcons running success was more about volume than efficiency. According to the advanced statmeisters at Football Outsiders, Michael Turner (376 carries, 1,699 yards) ranked sixth among tailbacks in total value, but was No. 19 in value per play. This suits the Falcons just fine.
Handing the ball off on a regular basis and playing behind a rebuilt offensive line limited Ryan’s exposure; he ate just 17 sacks this year (No. 5 in the NFL) and finished fourth in the league in value per play, ahead of his more famous counterpart on Saturday.
Arizona QB Kurt Warner (No. 6 in value per play) had the gaudier numbers during the regular season, including a 96.9 passer rating, but this was also partly due to volume. The Cardinals decided to bench RB Edgerrin James after Week 8 and anoint Tim Hightower the new starting tailback, but that didn’t work out too well – Hightower is a one-dimensional power runner and played like it with 2.8 yards per carry. So Warner ended up throwing 631 passes this year, second only to Drew Brees (647) in New Orleans. Ryan had 455 pass attempts.
The Cardinals may have figured out this problem by going back to James in Week 17; he ran for 100 yards against Seattle and has the inside “edge” on the starting assignment against the Falcons. WR Anquan Boldin (shoulder) is also expected to see his first action in two weeks, giving the Cards a puncher’s chance against an Atlanta defense that was ranked No. 23 in the league, two spots behind Arizona. Saturday’s total of 51 could be eclipsed in the first half.
Indianapolis (-1) at San Diego
Injuries have kept both of these teams from reaching their full potential. San Diego’s fall to 8-8 (7-8-1 ATS) can be pinned almost entirely on the loss of LB Shawne Merriman for the season; without him, the Bolts fell from No. 5 in the league in sacks with 42 to No. 22 with 28. Replacing defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell with Ron Rivera hasn’t made a dent in that category – the Chargers had just five sacks combined as they went 4-0 (3-1 ATS) to squeak into the playoffs. But Rivera’s 4-3 makes a lot more sense than Cottrell’s 3-4 when you’re missing arguably the best linebacker in the NFL.
The Colts had a barrage of injuries to begin the season, with the offensive line bearing the brunt of the damage. The starting five for Saturday, led by center Jeff Saturday, is relatively intact, and safety Bob Sanders is also believed to be ready for action after playing just six games due to various issues. However, the No. 1 health story in Indianapolis was QB Peyton Manning, who got off to a very slow start as he recuperated from offseason knee surgery.
Manning is getting the MVP buzz, and there is some merit to that. The Colts running game was a mess this year because of injuries to the O-line and to both Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes (each with just 3.5 yards per carry). Manning held things together and finished first in the NFL in value per play, but only a shade better than San Diego QB Philip Rivers at No. 2.
The Chargers running game also had a down year with LaDainian Tomlinson putting up just 3.8 yards per carry, but his ability to catch passes in the flat (52 receptions this year) and the rise of No. 2 tailback Darren Sproles (5.4 yards per carry) give San Diego the advantage here – and Sproles is also a far better returner than anything the Colts have to offer this year. San Diego has the best chance of any of the home dogs to beat the betting odds this weekend.
The most exciting time of the year, the NFL Playoffs, kicks off Saturday with a pair of wild card tilts. The matinee may lack marquee value, but the matchup between the Falcons and the Cards should be an exciting one. Atlanta won 11 games this season, as Mat Ryan is a better passer than Michael Vick ever was, while Kurt Warner will get some MVP votes. The big matchup is the night game, pitting the red-hot Colts and Chargers.
Happy New Year, and welcome to 2009. Will it be better than 2008? I like the odds. I also like the odds that we’re going to see some excellent football during the NFL Wild-Card Round. As you’re certainly aware by now, all four Wild Cards are small favorites this weekend. Let’s jump right in and take a gander at Saturday’s action.
Atlanta (-2) at Arizona
Offensive Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan (87.7 QB rating) is simply a better passer than Michael Vick (75.7 career rating), and while Vick’s running skills are undeniable, the Falcons already have that part of the game covered quite nicely. Atlanta was second in the NFL in rushing yardage (2,443) during the regular season, third in first downs (131) and eighth in yards per carry (4.4).
The Falcons running success was more about volume than efficiency. According to the advanced statmeisters at Football Outsiders, Michael Turner (376 carries, 1,699 yards) ranked sixth among tailbacks in total value, but was No. 19 in value per play. This suits the Falcons just fine.
Handing the ball off on a regular basis and playing behind a rebuilt offensive line limited Ryan’s exposure; he ate just 17 sacks this year (No. 5 in the NFL) and finished fourth in the league in value per play, ahead of his more famous counterpart on Saturday.
Arizona QB Kurt Warner (No. 6 in value per play) had the gaudier numbers during the regular season, including a 96.9 passer rating, but this was also partly due to volume. The Cardinals decided to bench RB Edgerrin James after Week 8 and anoint Tim Hightower the new starting tailback, but that didn’t work out too well – Hightower is a one-dimensional power runner and played like it with 2.8 yards per carry. So Warner ended up throwing 631 passes this year, second only to Drew Brees (647) in New Orleans. Ryan had 455 pass attempts.
The Cardinals may have figured out this problem by going back to James in Week 17; he ran for 100 yards against Seattle and has the inside “edge” on the starting assignment against the Falcons. WR Anquan Boldin (shoulder) is also expected to see his first action in two weeks, giving the Cards a puncher’s chance against an Atlanta defense that was ranked No. 23 in the league, two spots behind Arizona. Saturday’s total of 51 could be eclipsed in the first half.
Indianapolis (-1) at San Diego
Injuries have kept both of these teams from reaching their full potential. San Diego’s fall to 8-8 (7-8-1 ATS) can be pinned almost entirely on the loss of LB Shawne Merriman for the season; without him, the Bolts fell from No. 5 in the league in sacks with 42 to No. 22 with 28. Replacing defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell with Ron Rivera hasn’t made a dent in that category – the Chargers had just five sacks combined as they went 4-0 (3-1 ATS) to squeak into the playoffs. But Rivera’s 4-3 makes a lot more sense than Cottrell’s 3-4 when you’re missing arguably the best linebacker in the NFL.
The Colts had a barrage of injuries to begin the season, with the offensive line bearing the brunt of the damage. The starting five for Saturday, led by center Jeff Saturday, is relatively intact, and safety Bob Sanders is also believed to be ready for action after playing just six games due to various issues. However, the No. 1 health story in Indianapolis was QB Peyton Manning, who got off to a very slow start as he recuperated from offseason knee surgery.
Manning is getting the MVP buzz, and there is some merit to that. The Colts running game was a mess this year because of injuries to the O-line and to both Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes (each with just 3.5 yards per carry). Manning held things together and finished first in the NFL in value per play, but only a shade better than San Diego QB Philip Rivers at No. 2.
The Chargers running game also had a down year with LaDainian Tomlinson putting up just 3.8 yards per carry, but his ability to catch passes in the flat (52 receptions this year) and the rise of No. 2 tailback Darren Sproles (5.4 yards per carry) give San Diego the advantage here – and Sproles is also a far better returner than anything the Colts have to offer this year. San Diego has the best chance of any of the home dogs to beat the betting odds this weekend.