NFL Betting Review: Dogs bark in Week 14
NFL Betting Review: Dogs bark in Week 14
Away favorites are still cashing at a very profitable 63.8% on the season, but home dogs bit back in week 14 going 3-0 against the numbers. The Detroit Lions (+10½) failed to pick up their first win of the season but did manage to cover the number vs. the Vikings. And the San Francisco 49ers (+4) covered the spread against Brett Favre and the Jets with a 24-14 straight up win.
The dogs finally had their day.
As if on cue, home underdogs started barking in Week 14, the first week of December games on the NFL schedule. They went 1-2 SU and a perfect 3-0 ATS, putting an abrupt end to a season of fun and profit for supporters of the away favorites. That’s still the biggest play of the year at 37-21-2 ATS (63.8 percent), but as in life, timing is everything.
The turnaround started in Detroit, where the Lions were 10½-point underdogs versus the Minnesota Vikings. The betting odds in this matchup were kept off the board in the early week because of the suspensions stemming from the StarCaps scandal. However, Vikings defensive ends Pat Williams and Kevin Williams got a court injunction and were able to play. They did their job as Minnesota held the Lions to 76 yards rushing, although a 20-16 Vikings win wasn’t nearly enough to cover the spread.
The San Francisco 49ers (+4) did Detroit one better by actually winning a game. Shaun Hill outplayed New York Jets QB Brett Favre in a 24-14 victory as New York lost its second in a row – both by upset – following a five-game winning streak that propelled the Jets to the top of the AFC East. Now it’s a three-way tie at 8-5 after key victories by both New England and Miami.
The Patriots were the other away faves from Week 15, and they had to mount a fourth-quarter comeback to down the Seattle Seahawks 24-21 at Qwest Field. Seneca Wallace played QB for the Seahawks; Matt Hasselbeck and his bad back could be shut down for the rest of Seattle’s lost season.
As for the Dolphins, they took advantage of the cozy confines of Rogers Centre in Toronto, beating the “home” Buffalo Bills 16-3 as 1-point puppies. The Bills started J.P. Losman at QB for the injured Trent Edwards (groin). Losman is as hated in Buffalo these days as Jim Kelly is beloved, and it showed in the way his teammates played on Sunday.
The same advantages that make home dogs so delicious at this time of year – accumulated frequent flyer mileage and lousy weather – are the same advantages home favorites get to enjoy. They went 10-4 last week to vault closer to the break-even point at 69-77-2.
The most notable exceptions were the Green Bay Packers, who got no bounce from the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field in their 24-21 loss to the Houston Texans (+7). Matt Schaub opened up for 414 yards passing to effectively ruin Green Bay’s season at 5-8 (7-6 ATS), even though the Packers have a +36 point differential, still the best in the NFC North. The New York Giants (-6½) were also losers at home, dropping a 20-14 decision to the enigmatic Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants clinched the division regardless at 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS.
That result leaves the Tennessee Titans all alone atop the league standings at 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS. The Titans weren’t given much of a test last week, facing the Cleveland Browns and third-string QB Ken Dorsey, who was 22-for-43 for just 150 yards and a pick in a 28-9 loss. The Browns were 14-point road dogs. Even three turnovers by the Titans (two INTs, one fumble) and 131 yards in penalties weren’t enough to keep Tennessee from reaching the pay window.
The other big play from Week 14 was the under at a marvelous 12-4. As further proof the books are on top of things, that leaves the over at an unprofitable 101-99 on the season. Even the blowout games were going under last week. Indianapolis (-13½) flattened Cincinnati 35-3 on a total of 41½, while Arizona (-14) put the kibosh on St. Louis 34-10 and skimmed below the total of 48½.
Although QB Kurt Warner put up a 95.4 passer rating against his old team, the Cards scored two majors on defense to earn yet another payday for Arizona at 8-5 SU and ATS – good enough to clinch the franchise’s first division title since 1975. The St. Louis Cardinals went 11-3 under coach Don “Air” Coryell that year to win the NFC East, but fell in the Divisional Round to none other than the Rams. Sometimes instant karma takes a while.
Away favorites are still cashing at a very profitable 63.8% on the season, but home dogs bit back in week 14 going 3-0 against the numbers. The Detroit Lions (+10½) failed to pick up their first win of the season but did manage to cover the number vs. the Vikings. And the San Francisco 49ers (+4) covered the spread against Brett Favre and the Jets with a 24-14 straight up win.
The dogs finally had their day.
As if on cue, home underdogs started barking in Week 14, the first week of December games on the NFL schedule. They went 1-2 SU and a perfect 3-0 ATS, putting an abrupt end to a season of fun and profit for supporters of the away favorites. That’s still the biggest play of the year at 37-21-2 ATS (63.8 percent), but as in life, timing is everything.
The turnaround started in Detroit, where the Lions were 10½-point underdogs versus the Minnesota Vikings. The betting odds in this matchup were kept off the board in the early week because of the suspensions stemming from the StarCaps scandal. However, Vikings defensive ends Pat Williams and Kevin Williams got a court injunction and were able to play. They did their job as Minnesota held the Lions to 76 yards rushing, although a 20-16 Vikings win wasn’t nearly enough to cover the spread.
The San Francisco 49ers (+4) did Detroit one better by actually winning a game. Shaun Hill outplayed New York Jets QB Brett Favre in a 24-14 victory as New York lost its second in a row – both by upset – following a five-game winning streak that propelled the Jets to the top of the AFC East. Now it’s a three-way tie at 8-5 after key victories by both New England and Miami.
The Patriots were the other away faves from Week 15, and they had to mount a fourth-quarter comeback to down the Seattle Seahawks 24-21 at Qwest Field. Seneca Wallace played QB for the Seahawks; Matt Hasselbeck and his bad back could be shut down for the rest of Seattle’s lost season.
As for the Dolphins, they took advantage of the cozy confines of Rogers Centre in Toronto, beating the “home” Buffalo Bills 16-3 as 1-point puppies. The Bills started J.P. Losman at QB for the injured Trent Edwards (groin). Losman is as hated in Buffalo these days as Jim Kelly is beloved, and it showed in the way his teammates played on Sunday.
The same advantages that make home dogs so delicious at this time of year – accumulated frequent flyer mileage and lousy weather – are the same advantages home favorites get to enjoy. They went 10-4 last week to vault closer to the break-even point at 69-77-2.
The most notable exceptions were the Green Bay Packers, who got no bounce from the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field in their 24-21 loss to the Houston Texans (+7). Matt Schaub opened up for 414 yards passing to effectively ruin Green Bay’s season at 5-8 (7-6 ATS), even though the Packers have a +36 point differential, still the best in the NFC North. The New York Giants (-6½) were also losers at home, dropping a 20-14 decision to the enigmatic Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants clinched the division regardless at 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS.
That result leaves the Tennessee Titans all alone atop the league standings at 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS. The Titans weren’t given much of a test last week, facing the Cleveland Browns and third-string QB Ken Dorsey, who was 22-for-43 for just 150 yards and a pick in a 28-9 loss. The Browns were 14-point road dogs. Even three turnovers by the Titans (two INTs, one fumble) and 131 yards in penalties weren’t enough to keep Tennessee from reaching the pay window.
The other big play from Week 14 was the under at a marvelous 12-4. As further proof the books are on top of things, that leaves the over at an unprofitable 101-99 on the season. Even the blowout games were going under last week. Indianapolis (-13½) flattened Cincinnati 35-3 on a total of 41½, while Arizona (-14) put the kibosh on St. Louis 34-10 and skimmed below the total of 48½.
Although QB Kurt Warner put up a 95.4 passer rating against his old team, the Cards scored two majors on defense to earn yet another payday for Arizona at 8-5 SU and ATS – good enough to clinch the franchise’s first division title since 1975. The St. Louis Cardinals went 11-3 under coach Don “Air” Coryell that year to win the NFC East, but fell in the Divisional Round to none other than the Rams. Sometimes instant karma takes a while.
