My thoughts for the divisional round

[bystrow]

Baltimore Ravens (11-6 SU, 7-9-1 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS)

Manning did a gread job since taken over the Broncos and lead them with 4600 yards, 37 touchdowns and a 105.8 passer rating. Furthermore he has solid wide receivers featuring Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker (both over 1000 yards). The running game seems to get better, since McGahee was placed on IR. Although the offense has that much of attention the Defense did a nice job as well. They have with von Miller and Elvis Dumerville two really dominant defensive players and the backfield is with Bailey and Harris also pretty solid. The Ravens of course have a good team too, but the defense struggled against Andrew Luck and the young Colts offense. Although especially the RedZone Defense was pretty good, they gave up over 400 offensive yards, which is way too much and Peyton Manning should be able to make use of this. Additionally, the Ravens team is not like the Ravens Team of 2006 e.g. They always played defense first and were one the best defensive teams. But this Ravens defense is a defense in decline. They are #20 against the run, #17 against the pass and #17 in total defense. Moreover top CB Ladarius Webb is out for the season. Despite the recovery of Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis, they played a very average defense. Additionally, the Ravens come of a very emotional game - Ray Lewis last home game. They played 87 snaps in a hard-fought game while Denver had the first round bye. The Broncos are red-hot and on a winning streak of 11 games (7-1 at home). Peyton Manning is 9-0 (including 2-0 in the playoffs) in the last 9 games against Baltimore. 9.5 are a ton of points and the Ravens are well-respected, but at Mile High, Denver? No way in my opinion - take the Broncos and lay the points.

Denver Broncos -9.5 -$100 with 5/10 Units

The other games will be added soon ;D

[slacker00]

Good writeup, some interesting stats. But it seems like a lot of pts for a team a play away from the Super Bowl last year.

[bystrow]

Thats right, can't disprove that - but I think the last years Ravens team was better this years. At least the defense was. For example they allowed 5615 yards (350 ypg) and 21.5 ppg. Last year they only allowed 4622 yards (288 ypg) and 16.6 ppg. The offense was about the same, or is even slightly better this year. So I understand your point buddy, but I think they just can't handle the offensive pressure which the Broncos (hopefully ) are putting on them.

[slacker00]

Thats right, can't disprove that - but I think the last years Ravens team was better this years. At least the defense was. For example they allowed 5615 yards (350 ypg) and 21.5 ppg. Last year they only allowed 4622 yards (288 ypg) and 16.6 ppg. The offense was about the same, or is even slightly better this year. So I understand your point buddy, but I think they just can't handle the offensive pressure which the Broncos (hopefully ) are putting on them.

One thing about this year's stats, they were missing all kinds of players on defense. Now most of them are back.

[Aussiefalconfan]

Baltimore Ravens (11-6 SU, 7-9-1 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS)


Denver Broncos -9.5 -$100 with 5/10 Units

The other games will be added soon ;D

I guess its some american slang But what does that mean?
Also Agree 100% Over here denver is -11 ATM i got in while they were at -9.5

[bystrow]

I guess its some american slang But what does that mean?
Also Agree 100% Over here denver is -11 ATM i got in while they were at -9.5

That means, that you have to risk 100$ to win 100$. Equal to the decimal odd 2.0. The 4/10 is my stake, 4 out of 10 units

[2daBank]

One thing about this year's stats, they were missing all kinds of players on defense. Now most of them are back.

not the most important one tho..Webb....def better than right after the injury but still that a hard piece to replace, indy moved up and down the field on them while luck took a beating, den oline will keep peyton a lot cleaner and he will finish when in scoring range..

[slacker00]

not the most important one tho..Webb....def better than right after the injury but still that a hard piece to replace, indy moved up and down the field on them while luck took a beating, den oline will keep peyton a lot cleaner and he will finish when in scoring range..

Even with all the injuries, BAL is #2 in fewest passing TDs allowed.

In the DEN-BAL game, Peyton had 204 yards and 1 TD. It was the Flacco 98-yard pick-6 that blew that game apart.

For me, the story of this game is Flacco, if he sucks, BAL is cooked. But Flacco played great last week. Both playoff games last year, Flacco played well enough to win, it was the kicker that lost the AFC championship game against the Pats last year missing that 32 yarder. The Broncos are ranked #17 in passing TDs allowed, so if Flacco can exploit that, there's a path to victory for the Ravens.

[Big Bear]

One thing about this year's stats, they were missing all kinds of players on defense. Now most of them are back.

very true.

But were any of those players safetys or corners?

[slacker00]

very true.

But were any of those players safetys or corners?

Coverage is only as good as the pressure they can get on the QB. Ravens well bring more pressure than week 15.

[bystrow]

Green Bay Packers (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (11-4 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Expected the home Team to be a 3 Point Favorit. Think the running game of the Packers has improved well and although the 9ers have one of the best defenses in the country, it will take some pressure of Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is one of the top 3 Quarterbacks and always plays well in the Playoffs. Can't imagine that Justin Smith is at 100 %, and this will be a significant weakening for San Francisco, because his "brother" Aldon Smith plays much better with him, because he forces offensive lines to double team him. I don't think Kaepernick will burn the lights off in his first Playoff game and with Charles Woodson back I expect a better Packers defense. I see small advantages for the Packers. Think there should be a underdog in this game and therefore I gladly take the points and back the Packers.

Green Bay Packers +3 @ -$122 (1.84) pinnacle 2/10

Seattle Seahawks (12-5 SU, 12-5 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (13-3 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)


Think the Seahawks matchup very well against the Falcons. The big strength of the Falcons are their big and fast receivers and which two cornerbacks would match them better than Browner and Richard Sherman. In addition to that, they have with Chancellor and Thomas two outstanding safeties. Think Matt Ryans playoff record is well known and their defense as well as their running game seem very average. Sure, Clemons will miss tomorows game, but Bruce Irvin is a good replacement in my opinion. One weakness of Atlanta is the pressure through the middle over McClure and Konz and Seattles Pass Rush should be very strong. The Seahawks are red-hot, while the Falcons have peaked early in the season. Regular Season stats don't matter anymore - the Seahawks will stay very competitive and probably win this game straight up.

Seattle Seahawks +2.5 @ -$100 (2.0) Pinnacle 4/10

Houston Texans (13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)

Think the first game don't represent this matchup really well. The Texans are much better, than at the end of the season and Foster makes always good playoff games. This will set up good opportunities for some playaction passes and that's where Matt Schaub is at his best. Additionally it will keep Tom Brady off the field if Arian Foster can make a good game. In his 3 playoff starts he always tops the 100 yard mark. The Defense also looks better now and I totally expect them to step up and set good pressure to Tom Brady. Finally I think that the Houston Texans stand within the spread and give them a good chance to win the game. 9.5 points are way too much in my opinion, although the Patriots are one of the best teams and Houston clearly is not in the best shape. I'm betting Houston plus the points.

Houston +9.5 @ -$114 (1.93) Pinnacle 4/10 Units