3 Team 10 point parlay for tomorow

haserfauld · 12-08-12, 10:33 PM

I don't like any of those. 10 points, take SF -2, SEA -1.5, and PIT/SD over 30.

Washington is the best of those plays, IMO. DET/GB should go over, but it's going to be played in 2 inches of snow. Could go way over, but 36.5 is the much, much preferable number.

Lakers Dynasty · 12-08-12, 10:38 PM

I would take Baltimore plus 12.5 instead of the Skins.

wolvesguy89 · 12-08-12, 10:48 PM

I really don't see either the Bears or Redskins losing by anymore than a touchdown. Ravens play like shit on the road and the Redskins have been surging. The Bears arent a great play, AP should run for 100+ again, but believe me Ponder will not do shit against that great secondary (Im a vikings fan believe me)The way the Lions give up points 38 should be no problem. Packer D not great either. You know Stafford and Rodgers are gonna throw a ton. I don't see how this teaser will lose

JMUplayer · 12-08-12, 10:50 PM

teasing down to almost ML is the worst thing possible.

wolvesguy89 · 12-08-12, 10:54 PM

Why does it matter?

haserfauld · 12-08-12, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by JMUplayer

teasing down to almost ML is the worst thing possible.

Teasing through zero is generally a bad idea, but I don't possibly see how turning a 12.5pt favorite into a 2.5pt favorite is a bad idea. Teasers are about getting to the valuable number. Only time I'll tease through zero is if I have a team I'm pretty sure will win at -2.5 or -3 that teases to +7.5. Same with over/unders, I'll tease overs to the half point below key o/u numbers (31, 35, 38, 40, 45, etc).

wolvesguy89 · 12-08-12, 11:40 PM

Right, and I teased 2 games that should be close so that they go past a key number (+7) so I really don't see why teasing through 0 makes a difference when you're teasing to +7.5 or better

Slimpickens · 12-09-12, 12:00 AM

I like the teaser. Only way it loses IMO is if Minnesota wins a 23-13 type game.

wolvesguy89 · 12-09-12, 12:02 AM

Finally someone has my back, Thanks Slim

PAULYPOKER · 12-09-12, 12:08 AM

DET/GB O38

This one could easily trash your bet,

Never play totals on teasers cause there is no value.............

wolvesguy89 · 12-09-12, 12:13 AM

?? How is there no value in that? Is it harder for 2 teams to score 48, or 38? Just wondering

haserfauld · 12-09-12, 12:41 AM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Never play totals on teasers cause there is no value.............

I would very much disagree with this statement. While I don't often play totals in teasers, the last 3 straight weeks I've had a total pick teased down, it hit, and it wouldn't have without the teasing.

People misuse teasers all the time, I definitely agree there. I even think wolve's 38 is a good number, but I only advise against it because of the weather, not the pick.

wolvesguy89 · 12-09-12, 12:53 AM

Forecast for Green Bay calls for 1-3 inches during the day, and less than an inch at night. It may play a small factor, but an inch of snow is nothing. Besides, the Lions and Packers don't have much of a run game, so even if there was a blizzard they would still throw 65% of snaps, that's just the kind of teams they are

PAULYPOKER · 12-09-12, 12:56 AM

12/12/2010	GREEN BAY	3	-7	Under	0	13	29:12	20-66	22-37	192	1	2	3-20
	DETROIT	7	45.5	SU ATS	0	15	30:48	41-190	10-22	96	0	2	6-35

HoulihansTX · 12-09-12, 09:17 AM

Originally posted by wolvesguy89

WSH +8.5
CHI +7.5
DET/GB O38

Thoughts? Comments?

You did the fool here.

Cross zero

Tease totals

Use a ten point teaser, but fail to even get ten points in the tease

wolvesguy89 · 12-09-12, 09:59 AM

...K

killersweet · 12-09-12, 10:09 AM

I like this teaser. But don't mix totals with spreads. I would replace the total play with something else.

ndirishfan · 12-09-12, 10:16 AM

Like the cowboys +13.5

wolvesguy89 · 12-09-12, 10:29 AM

Yeah I was thinking about them

HoulihansTX · 12-09-12, 10:31 AM

Holy shit, there are two home dogs staring you in the face. Tease those up, all the time, every time. Minny +13, and Carolina +13. Then choose whateve, but those two teams will be teased by anyone with a clue today.

PAULYPOKER · 12-09-12, 10:33 AM

Balt/KC/Pitt............winner winner chicken dinner...............

SmittyZ28 · 12-09-12, 11:05 AM

Balt/Pitt Winners, really like the Browns getting it done at home. They are the best bad team in football, looking at the under for a strong play

wolvesguy89 · 12-09-12, 11:42 AM

We'll see what happens fellas

arpeggiomeister · 12-09-12, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by wolvesguy89

I really don't see either the Bears or Redskins losing by anymore than a touchdown. Ravens play like shit on the road and the Redskins have been surging. The Bears arent a great play, AP should run for 100+ again, but believe me Ponder will not do shit against that great secondary (Im a vikings fan believe me)The way the Lions give up points 38 should be no problem. Packer D not great either. You know Stafford and Rodgers are gonna throw a ton. I don't see how this teaser will lose

Let me tell you what I like about your choice. You have clearly thought about it. The quote above shows your logic. I am seeing a lot of bad and truly foolish advice in response to this. My intent is not to make personal attacks. I am sure the people who said these things have their reasons. I am attacking the advice itself for what I am seeing ranges from misguided to flat out wrong.

I will start with the misguided advice. There are a lot of math based handi-cappers out there that are way too in love with their formulas. I will not deny that those who a true masters at this form of handicapping produce results. In the end results are the only thing that matters. These gurus watch key numbers closely, such as 7 and 3. I'm telling you that you should take this advice with a grain of salt. Here is the truth. Every point you tease off from the spread increases your odds of covering.

I am not disrespecting the math wizards, but their approach is simply not practical for the average bettor. To say their is not value in shaving points off the spread is complete and total bullshit. Forget about the key numbers. Find the team you think can get the job done and think of the 10 extra points as insurance.

"Don't tease points and spreads in the same teaser", excuse me I am paraphrasing. BetDSI allows you to tease the total of one team in a 10 point teaser. If you are going to tease the points than this is the only option you have. As long as you have a solid reason for believing in your bet you should mix and match however you see fit.

Now for the advice that is flat out wrong. Who the hell is the idiot that came up with the idea that teasing through zero is a bad idea?

Week 12 Seahawks -3

Open Current Open Current

235 Seattle 21 -3 +105 -3 -130
38 -110 37½ -110

236 Miami 24 +3 -125 +3 +110
38 -110 37½ -110

Week 13 Jets -6.5 and Packers -9.5

Open Current Open Current

341 Minnesota 14 +9½ -110 +7 -115
47 -110 47 -110

342 Green Bay 23 -9½ -110 -7 -105
47 -110 47 -110

Open Current Open Current

345 Arizona 6 +3½ -110 +6½ -110
38 -110 37 -110

346 N.Y. Jets 7 -3½ -110 -6½ -110
38 -110 37 -110

Here are 3 examples of teams that lost ATS but covered if you teased them by 10 points. I teased them through the zero. You can't argue with money in the bank. "Don't tease through zero" is flat out bad advice.

Let me reiterate that I mean no disrespect to anyone. I am sure you have your reasons for saying these things.

My approach is to track bubble phenomenon psychology and exploit it when this mentality creates value. I threw the math book out the window. The math gurus have already done the math, all I need to do is interpret the psychology behind the numbers. I am making money with this approach. I could easily sit back and say that all of your modeling, binomial probablilities, poisson expectations, etc. are a complete and total waste of time. That would be ignorant on my part. The bottom line is that there is more than one way to skin a cat. Your method is not the only thing that works. Too many people on this site are far too eager to tell people why something is a bad idea without even considering the idea that was put out for consideration. That is what I am speaking out against. It's damn foolishness and I think you all know it.

Wolf, I like your teaser. Even if it fails that is okay. It is the thought behind it that I like. I am putting the finishing touches on a system. 10 point teasers are a crucial part of it. I would be happy to exchange ideas with you but not openly in the forum. I would prefer to have a conversation with someone interested exploring new ideas, not tearing them apart for the purpose of boosting one's own ego.

wolvesguy89 · 12-09-12, 02:00 PM

Arpeggiomeister, your logic is penetrating impeccable. I literally agree with every single thing you just said. And you're right about the people on here thinking they know everything. "Never tease through zero" is the biggest garbage statement I've ever heard, it literally makes no sense, and I'm glad you recognize this. I would love to share some ideas with you for the future

wolvesguy89 · 12-09-12, 02:01 PM

Penetrating? I said fukking

boss_of_um · 12-09-12, 02:13 PM

Not teasing totals is the stupidest remark in this thread

wolvesguy89 · 12-09-12, 02:17 PM

Agreed! Like I said, is it harder for two teams to score 38, or 48? You can't possibly tell me there is no value in teasing totals

wolvesguy89 · 12-09-12, 04:18 PM

Bears and Redskins cover. To those of you with that "Don't tease across zero" bullshat, slob my knob

arpeggiomeister · 12-09-12, 05:08 PM

Looking good brother. I think you'll be cashing in on this one. I just got screwed by ATL but I have another teaser. I am on SF -0.5 and the over for 28, and SEA pk.

Good luck to ya.

wolvesguy89 · 12-09-12, 05:34 PM

I'm pullin for ya! In reality you're probably the coolest dude on this forum I've met thus far

arpeggiomeister · 12-09-12, 05:56 PM

Thanks bro. I messaged you with a system I have been working on. I have been posting a chase experiement all season but my thread has been under the radar. Half way through the season I discovered the 10 point Teaser pattern and the results have been amazing. I am now attempting to see if i can make it work in the NBA.

Check it out and let me know your thoughts.

wolvesguy89 · 12-09-12, 06:13 PM

You're a field goal away from victory!

arpeggiomeister · 12-09-12, 06:57 PM

SF just gets a touchdown, looks good!!!