Not a big prop guy but found a GREAT PLAY!

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  • mwhelan11
    SBR Hustler
    • 03-24-11
    • 75

    #1
    Not a big prop guy but found a GREAT PLAY!
    longest field goal over 44.5 yards -110. Like stated above will be a field goal clinic and both kickers are very good. I see risk being taken with FG's bc points will be scarce.

    Akers has hit a 63 yarder this year. he has hit 10 from 40+.

    Gould has hit 6-7 from 40-50

    Both have hit 2+ from over 50.

    Weather will be around 50 degrees, partially cloudy but NO WIND or precipitation.

    NFL kickers convert 1 in 1.25 (80%) of their kicks overall and 1 in 1.43 (70%) kicks between 40-49 yards, but the latter part of that range begins to stretch their limits. At 50 yards or more NFL kickers are successful on 1 in 1.94 (52%) attempts.

    a 47-yard field goal—the actual data gives us 1 in 1.38 odds (72%); the smoothed line, 1 in 1.5.


    Also looking at first score not a TD for -110. 2 backup qb's with two unbelievable defenses. Only way this prop loses is if bears get pick 6 but both teams will be running ball. Good Luck.
  • p19101
    SBR MVP
    • 11-17-11
    • 1419

    #2
    I agree, sounds good.
    Comment
    • p19101
      SBR MVP
      • 11-17-11
      • 1419

      #3
      It's -105 now, someone must have thought the opposite
      Comment
      • ColdBeerHere
        SBR MVP
        • 03-25-11
        • 3626

        #4
        I never play props either but I found two for this game....neither team scores 3 straight times +115.....and I'm also on the first score not a td -110.
        Comment
        • mwhelan11
          SBR Hustler
          • 03-24-11
          • 75

          #5
          Originally posted by p19101
          It's -105 now, someone must have thought the opposite

          At 5dimes it went up to -115
          Comment
          • rumnblack
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 05-21-12
            • 876

            #6
            Three straight times occurs more than you'd ever think but if you were ever going to play it it's this game.
            Comment
            • p19101
              SBR MVP
              • 11-17-11
              • 1419

              #7
              Originally posted by mwhelan11
              At 5Dimes it went up to -115
              When I saw post I went there and it was -110, while checking other books it went to -105 which is what I got for my bet.

              EDIT : Nope, still -105 at 5dimes.
              Comment
              • mwhelan11
                SBR Hustler
                • 03-24-11
                • 75

                #8
                Originally posted by ColdBeerHere
                I never play props either but I found two for this game....neither team scores 3 straight times +115.....and I'm also on the first score not a td -110.
                Yea looking at 3 straight too and like first score not a TD.

                Love the FG over 44.5
                Comment
                • mwhelan11
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 03-24-11
                  • 75

                  #9
                  Originally posted by p19101
                  Must have been from my play then. When I saw post I went there and it was -110, while checking other books it went to -105 which is what I got for my bet.
                  rumnblack could not agree more.

                  P19101 ohhh gotcha
                  Comment
                  • mwhelan11
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 03-24-11
                    • 75

                    #10
                    Originally posted by p19101
                    When I saw post I went there and it was -110, while checking other books it went to -105 which is what I got for my bet.

                    EDIT : Nope, still -105 at 5dimes.
                    where are you seeing that? I am on my 5dimes acct looking at -115?
                    Comment
                    • amarius87
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-07-12
                      • 1117

                      #11
                      what about number of td? under 3.5? sounds like a pretty good prop bet to me ( 1.66 odds)
                      Comment
                      • p19101
                        SBR MVP
                        • 11-17-11
                        • 1419

                        #12
                        Originally posted by mwhelan11
                        where are you seeing that? I am on my 5dimes acct looking at -115?
                        Under the "props" section
                        Comment
                        • haserfauld
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 12-12-08
                          • 957

                          #13
                          Might there be more value in both teams making a 37.5+ FG @ +150?
                          Comment
                          • mwhelan11
                            SBR Hustler
                            • 03-24-11
                            • 75

                            #14
                            Originally posted by amarius87
                            what about number of td? under 3.5? sounds like a pretty good prop bet to me ( 1.66 odds)
                            3.5 is a tough call... that depends on defensive touchdowns/turnovers. either backup QB tries to be a hero and start throwing, I see alot of interceptions and mistakes. Defense will decide the touchdown margin. I think you can make a good argument for either side. Campbell has alot of experience and Kap is a tough kid, Kap wants to be starter he could have a great game. Now Im making no sense and will stop haha. GL
                            Comment
                            • mwhelan11
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 03-24-11
                              • 75

                              #15
                              Originally posted by haserfauld
                              Might there be more value in both teams making a 37.5+ FG @ +150?
                              Just saw that... It think it is a great play at that price.
                              Comment
                              • amarius87
                                SBR MVP
                                • 11-07-12
                                • 1117

                                #16
                                makes sense.. no arguments against that.. but the noth teams make a 37.5+ is solid prop i think. lots of mid-field possesions in this game or deep in own zone.. the way i see it.
                                Comment
                                • p19101
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 11-17-11
                                  • 1419

                                  #17
                                  What do you think of this one?

                                  Special teams or defensive score @ +130
                                  Comment
                                  • mwhelan11
                                    SBR Hustler
                                    • 03-24-11
                                    • 75

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by amarius87
                                    makes sense.. no arguments against that.. but the noth teams make a 37.5+ is solid prop i think. lots of mid-field possesions in this game or deep in own zone.. the way i see it.
                                    Absolutely!
                                    Comment
                                    • mwhelan11
                                      SBR Hustler
                                      • 03-24-11
                                      • 75

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by p19101
                                      What do you think of this one?

                                      Special teams or defensive score @ +130
                                      I know Bears Defense has been unreal with TD's but to me that line is really low... 49's not going to kick to Hester and both offenses will eliminate as much risk as possible.
                                      Comment
                                      • haserfauld
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 12-12-08
                                        • 957

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by p19101
                                        What do you think of this one?

                                        Special teams or defensive score @ +130
                                        You have weird lines.

                                        That's +160 at 5D. And even then, I wouldn't take it. Turnovers, sure, but not a Def TD at that price.
                                        Comment
                                        • Rangers901
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 01-09-12
                                          • 363

                                          #21
                                          I like the logic, and the play. May bite on this myself. Good luck
                                          Comment
                                          • p19101
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-17-11
                                            • 1419

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by haserfauld
                                            You have weird lines.

                                            That's +160 at 5D. And even then, I wouldn't take it. Turnovers, sure, but not a Def TD at that price.
                                            I can't see that one @ 5D, that was from bet365

                                            What number does it have at 5D?

                                            EDIT: found it and never mind
                                            Comment
                                            • Rangers901
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 01-09-12
                                              • 363

                                              #23
                                              I like the logic, and the play. May bite on this myself. Good luck.
                                              Comment
                                              • mwhelan11
                                                SBR Hustler
                                                • 03-24-11
                                                • 75

                                                #24
                                                Haserfauld agree.
                                                Comment
                                                • p19101
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-17-11
                                                  • 1419

                                                  #25
                                                  Yes you are probably right, it might not be high enough. But 2 good defenses against 2 backup QBs, not THAT unlikely.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mwhelan11
                                                    SBR Hustler
                                                    • 03-24-11
                                                    • 75

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by p19101
                                                    Yes you are probably right, it might not be high enough. But 2 good defenses against 2 backup QBs, not THAT unlikely.
                                                    Agreed but not at that price! also think about 49's O line, wide outs and Gore. If turnover does happen they will make the play on the ground to recover or run down and tackle to stop the 6, unless of course CB reads a quick slant or something and easy pick 6 and bears to be would be the one with the defensive td's.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • DonFilet59
                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                      • 01-26-12
                                                      • 55

                                                      #27
                                                      No td scored in game +1700, 1 unit
                                                      Comment
                                                      • k13
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 07-16-10
                                                        • 18104

                                                        #28
                                                        I need 8-9 FG's by Akers, what are the odds of that?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • haserfauld
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 12-12-08
                                                          • 957

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by DonFilet59
                                                          No td scored in game +1700, 1 unit
                                                          If you have 5D, go to the Futures section and pick Overtime/No TD scored at +2000. Better bet and higher payout
                                                          Comment
                                                          • mwhelan11
                                                            SBR Hustler
                                                            • 03-24-11
                                                            • 75

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by k13
                                                            I need 8-9 FG's by Akers, what are the odds of that?
                                                            Akers has the ability to make 8-9 in a game but will not get that many attempts. In 2011 San Fran actually led NFL in attempts but was only 3.1
                                                            Comment
                                                            • mwhelan11
                                                              SBR Hustler
                                                              • 03-24-11
                                                              • 75

                                                              #31
                                                              ....
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Deol
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 09-01-11
                                                                • 1340

                                                                #32
                                                                Bet365 has it at over 43.5 at -135, wish I could alternate spread the length of the FG to get better value. This probably is the best play for this game.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • mngambler
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 08-01-11
                                                                  • 2890

                                                                  #33
                                                                  what do you guys think about: total field goals over 3.5 @ -105 on youwager...seems like a good prop for half a unit
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Deol
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 09-01-11
                                                                    • 1340

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Incomplete Pass here and this should hit!!

                                                                    Guess not
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • w@lt
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 10-08-10
                                                                      • 2594

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by mwhelan11
                                                                      Just saw that... It think it is a great play at that price.
                                                                      One 37+ yarder on the board!
                                                                      Comment
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