Help!!! Do I Hedge???

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  • Lakers714
    SBR MVP
    • 06-17-09
    • 4671

    #1
    Help!!! Do I Hedge???
    Ok, so I rarely do parlays but I have one that comes down to the DAL +3.5. Original parlay is $90 to win around 2,300. Do I let it ride or hedge? I was thinking a $500-$700 hedge on ATL -3, buying it down. So if ATL wins by 3, I win 2,300 and push the hedge. Or win around $500 if ATL wins by more than 3. What the fuk would u guys do?
  • Lakers714
    SBR MVP
    • 06-17-09
    • 4671

    #2
    The gambler in me says let it ride but I think I should exercise some money management here. Thoughts???
    Comment
    • Frisco
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 02-27-12
      • 6138

      #3
      Dallas is a tough road dog to let ride imo. I would feel better too if you got them at +5 like it currently is. I'd hedge but gl
      Comment
      • p19101
        SBR MVP
        • 11-17-11
        • 1419

        #4
        Has something changed very drastically since you made the parlay?

        If the answer is no, then ask yourself why you put the game in the parlay in the first place. Because you'd been better off just leaving it out, hedging is a losing proposition in the long run.
        Comment
        • jscott1586
          SBR Sharp
          • 12-25-08
          • 257

          #5
          Take the guaranteed monies. BOL with whatever decision make
          Comment
          • nvrlose37
            SBR MVP
            • 06-01-12
            • 2730

            #6
            What I normally like doing is waiting til halftime and seeing how it goes. You may be able to make a hedge then and if Dallas is doing good at that point, you could have a good chance to win both bets.

            Or at that point you could easily let it ride. I myself like your bet as it is. Good luck.
            Comment
            • Lakers714
              SBR MVP
              • 06-17-09
              • 4671

              #7
              Like I said, I usually don't do parlays and did it this time because I was going to be busy today. I didn't think this shiet would come down to the last game. Investing $90 and the payout being 2,300, I'm tempted to stick, but shouldn't u take guaranteed money when u can?
              Comment
              • visualrealism
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 10-13-11
                • 880

                #8
                hedge. you can get 1000 profit of $90 is good.
                Comment
                • Lakers714
                  SBR MVP
                  • 06-17-09
                  • 4671

                  #9
                  Originally posted by nvrlose37
                  What I normally like doing is waiting til halftime and seeing how it goes. You may be able to make a hedge then and if Dallas is doing good at that point, you could have a good chance to win both bets.

                  Or at that point you could easily let it ride. I myself like your bet as it is. Good luck.
                  I was thinking about that but I might not be able to get a number that guarantees me money.
                  Comment
                  • Lakers714
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-17-09
                    • 4671

                    #10
                    Originally posted by visualrealism
                    hedge. you can get 1000 profit of $90 is good.
                    Lol, fuk, I know I should. My mind is telling me to take guaranteed money. The gambler in me is telling me to let it ride. Fuk me.
                    Comment
                    • Frisco
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 02-27-12
                      • 6138

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Lakers714
                      I was thinking about that but I might not be able to get a number that guarantees me money.
                      Exactly. If Dallas is getting smashed you won't be able to hedge at all. If you're using a book w/ live betting u might be able to catch a good line then.
                      Comment
                      • Frisco
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 02-27-12
                        • 6138

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Lakers714
                        Lol, fuk, I know I should. My mind is telling me to take guaranteed money. The gambler in me is telling me to let it ride. Fuk me.
                        Then hedge small so you profit either way but the gambler in you will be making more $$ if the Boys cover like you previously thought would happen. You're still gambling that way
                        Comment
                        • Pivotpoint
                          SBR MVP
                          • 08-02-06
                          • 1762

                          #13
                          Lots of variables.

                          Have you had a good day, weekend? Is the account flush?

                          If yes, let it ride, if you still like the cowboys. Sometimes I hedge, sometimes I don't.

                          I had huge momentum going into the Giants/ Steelers game. Had Steelers + 3 1/2 straight, last leg of a 7 team 6pt teaser and last leg of a 4 team 6 point teaser. $2372 in gross winnings and $500 riding.

                          I hit all my bets today and deceided to let it ride. Figured worse case, I had another chance to hedge on 2nd half, but passed on the pk spread posted 2nd half.

                          Consider live betting (if available) or 2nd half bet vs taking the other side.

                          I like the Falcons, but not laying 4 or 4 1/2.

                          I have Falcons TT OV 26 (-115) 2x

                          Two team parlay

                          Falcons ML -225
                          FALCONS / COWBOYS OV + 47 (-119)
                          2.36x = 3.91x

                          No way I trust $ to Romo. But they might back door in late and lose by 3?

                          gl with your choice
                          Comment
                          • Jerm3085
                            SBR MVP
                            • 09-26-12
                            • 1539

                            #14
                            I'm in the same situation! I have Dallas +4 to close out a 7 team parlay. Considering a teaser of atl+2 over 40.5...I say take the guaranteed money! gL
                            Comment
                            • PD77
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-11-09
                              • 2380

                              #15
                              I have Dallas tonight but I've been beat down pretty hard today. If I were in your shoes (nice shoes by the way) I would hedge with ATL ML and risk $500. You could middle and really clean up. Good luck to both of us.
                              Comment
                              • Pivotpoint
                                SBR MVP
                                • 08-02-06
                                • 1762

                                #16
                                Is it me, or does it seem everyone is on the Boys tonite?
                                Comment
                                • Lakers714
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 06-17-09
                                  • 4671

                                  #17
                                  I forget, do these SNF games start exactly at 5:30?
                                  Comment
                                  • Mr. Green
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 02-01-11
                                    • 251

                                    #18
                                    Just curious...how many teams is your parlay?

                                    BOL!
                                    Comment
                                    • Lakers714
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 06-17-09
                                      • 4671

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Mr. Green
                                      Just curious...how many teams is your parlay?

                                      BOL!
                                      6 team parlay. I would post a screenshot but can't do that on my phone.
                                      Comment
                                      • Pivotpoint
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 08-02-06
                                        • 1762

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Lakers714
                                        I forget, do these SNF games start exactly at 5:30?

                                        My screen says 5:30 pst. Don't wait to the last second. Give yourself 5 minutes and either pull the trigger or let it ride.

                                        Falcon just dipped to 3 1/2 .
                                        Comment
                                        • Mr. Green
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 02-01-11
                                          • 251

                                          #21
                                          My book shows game start at 7:35 CST
                                          Comment
                                          • Lakers714
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 06-17-09
                                            • 4671

                                            #22
                                            Cool, thx for all the input guys. Either way, I'm not going to hedge half, $1000. It's gonna only be $500. Deciding now if I should buy down to ATL -3 so I can go for the middle.
                                            Comment
                                            • Lakers714
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 06-17-09
                                              • 4671

                                              #23
                                              I mean push the hedge bet and win the parlay.
                                              Comment
                                              • Lakers714
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 06-17-09
                                                • 4671

                                                #24
                                                Late money on the Cowboys...
                                                Comment
                                                • Pivotpoint
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 08-02-06
                                                  • 1762

                                                  #25
                                                  Buying to the 3 is - 140. Expensive. Moneyline getting pounded. Falcons -190 now.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Lakers714
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 06-17-09
                                                    • 4671

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Pivotpoint
                                                    Buying to the 3 is - 140. Expensive. Moneyline getting pounded. Falcons -190 now.
                                                    No, money coming in on the Cowboys. ML keeps dropping for the Falcons unless its RLm
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Pivotpoint
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 08-02-06
                                                      • 1762

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Lakers714
                                                      No, money coming in on the Cowboys. ML keeps dropping for the Falcons unless its RLm
                                                      Yes, money coming in on Cowboys. Talking from Falcon perspective. I have Falcons ML +225 and dipped to 190, my reference.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Lakers714
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 06-17-09
                                                        • 4671

                                                        #28
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                                                        • Lakers714
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 06-17-09
                                                          • 4671

                                                          #29
                                                          Just decided to hedge $300 on ATL -3.5. Hopefully Dallas jumps out to a lead so I can make a live bet on ATL and go for the middle. Only gonna hedge another $200, $500 total. Lets go Cowboys!!! Don't wanna see the bad Tony Romo tonight. Lets go boys!!!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Lakers714
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 06-17-09
                                                            • 4671

                                                            #30
                                                            Hoping Dallas score a TD here so I can take ATL + points live.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Deol
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 09-01-11
                                                              • 1340

                                                              #31
                                                              I love it when you see this in a thread "I rarely do parlays but ..." That basically means I do parlays every week and this week I actually have a chance of hitting. Anyays I hope ATL wins by 3 so we both win. GL!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Lakers714
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 06-17-09
                                                                • 4671

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Deol
                                                                I love it when you see this in a thread "I rarely do parlays but ..." That basically means I do parlays every week and this week I actually have a chance of hitting. Anyays I hope ATL wins by 3 so we both win. GL!
                                                                Dood, I've been around here for a long time and post plays. I RARELY play parlays. That's why I'm so excited about this one being the last leg of a 6 teamer.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Deol
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 09-01-11
                                                                  • 1340

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Lakers714
                                                                  Dood, I've been around here for a long time and post plays. I RARELY play parlays. That's why I'm so excited about this one being the last leg of a 6 teamer.
                                                                  Relax, I'm just playing. I really need ATL and NO to win by under 10.5 and this weekend will be pretty ridiculous (might actually hit a 14 game 7pt NFL teaser haha).
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Lakers714
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 06-17-09
                                                                    • 4671

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Deol
                                                                    Relax, I'm just playing. I really need ATL and NO to win by under 10.5 and this weekend will be pretty ridiculous (might actually hit a 14 game 7pt NFL teaser haha).
                                                                    Lol, good luck bro.
                                                                    Comment
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