| YARDS PER POINT / I see the math as -5.6 so what should the point spread be ? It seems as tho Tampa has the better numbers ie, lower on offence than NO and higher on defence than NO, shouldn't Tampa have the be favored ? I'm a little new to this and want to start bringing this (YPP) into my handicapping bag. Thank if you can help. |
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| TEAM | OFF | DEF | DIFF |
| New Orleans | 14.3 | 14.8 | -0.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 13.1 | 19.2 | -6.1 |
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If yards per point were the only metric being used, than you would be correct. I have a feeling the odds makers use more then YARDS PER POINT.Comment -
Well, yes they sure do..... I just have to keep at it, trying to figure the true line if there is such a thing. I have read that YYP can help with this determination.Comment -
Sadly, there is no true line. A lot of the models used rely on simulations that are then refined using a human element. If I were building a model, which I'm not, I would start with Average Starting Field Position for Opponent and build from there. I would also use a power rankings system to help weigh each team. Good luck and if I come across any articles that can help you, I will post them here.Comment -
Thank you !Comment -
you take the average yards allowed by the opposing team and divide by the yds per point number for the other team., do the same for both sides and you have a very basic score.Comment
