Unique 350 experiment - 100 to 1000

pokerwhiz90 · 10-20-12, 03:35 PM

hey mcduggly any other games you looking at? maybe oregon state?

pokerwhiz90 · 10-20-12, 03:48 PM

i think oregon st wins for sure

nic9212 · 10-20-12, 05:54 PM

This is it, lets go BAMA we need this win!

FreddDS · 10-20-12, 07:35 PM

23-10, easy first half win for Alabama! 2-2! Let's go for 3!

nic9212 · 10-20-12, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by mcduggly

Attempt #2 - Bet #2 :
Alabama over Tennessee First Half @-600
Bet $121.05 to win $20.18

Obviously Alabama is the superior team here and the price isn't bad at all for the large discrepancy in talent. I can see the Tide up a couple scores at the end of the first half of this one. Good luck, guys.

went all in for a reason. Expect the line -800 to -1200. Congrats on the win

mcduggly · 10-20-12, 10:06 PM

#1. San Jose State over Texas San Antonio - $100 to win $21.05 - WIN
#2. Alabama over Tennessee First Half - $121.05 to win $20.18 - WIN

I didn't get to watch this game because I was at the casino near me playing some blackjack. From what it looks and sounds like, Alabama cruised in the first half as expected, and won by a reasonable margin. I actually did take Oregon State tonight, but since I did not post it on here, I will not count it towards this system. Sorry I wasn't around guys, but at least we ended on a couple wins. Tomorrow we have some NFL plays that look decent and I will post later what I'm liking after I look into them some more.

mcduggly · 10-20-12, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by nic9212

went all in for a reason. Expect the line -800 to -1200. Congrats on the win

What do you mean expect the line -800 to -1200?

mcduggly · 10-20-12, 11:11 PM

Attempt #2 - Bet #3 :
Houston Texans over Baltimore Ravens @-320
Bet $141.23 to win $44.13

The line for this game is a little lower than the targeted minimum line of -350 that I initially established, but this seems like a great bet for us. The Texans just got spanked by the Packers, so are trying to prove to everyone that they aren't pretenders in this game. The Ravens are also missing Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb, 2 of their best defensive players. That will help Arian Foster and Andre Johnson get their yards and scores throughout the game. Joe Flacco also blows on the road, especially this season, so that should help as well. I can see the Texans winning pretty handily if Schuab and Foster play to their level. Good luck, boys.

nic9212 · 10-21-12, 12:05 AM

Originally posted by mcduggly

What do you mean expect the line -800 to -1200?

What I mean is the price was cheap, and I expected more juice from a superior team than -600

pokerwhiz90 · 10-21-12, 04:10 AM

nice! we're rolling!

agendaman · 10-21-12, 04:38 AM

oregon bet ok your system is not why do you live in pipedreams iit wont fukin work

Erock87 · 10-21-12, 07:42 AM

GL with this one, Ravens history against Texans make me lay off, but I'll still be rooting for you!

utmoody10 · 10-21-12, 09:56 AM

mcduggly as you know I have been following this system the past few weeks and have done a bit of research for this years eligible college football games (full games). Here is a summary through week 8.

THROUGH WEEK 8
DOGS VS SPREAD		DOG COVER %
WINS	LOSSES
88	86	50.57%

MONEYLINE WINNERS		FAVORITE WINNING %
FAVORITES	DOGS
160	15	91.43%

HOME VS SPREAD
	WINS	LOSSES	WINNING %
FAVORITES	62	56	52.54%
UNDERDOGS	32	23	58.18%

MONEYLINE RECORDS
	WINS	LOSSES	WINNING %
-350 TO -500	35	7	83.33%
-501 TO -750	47	4	92.16%
-751 TO -1000	20	2	90.91%
-1000+	58	2	96.67%

As you can see eligible favorites are hitting at nearly a 92% clip. Wanted to see if there was any trend with dogs vs spread as well. All in all the numbers do not favor dog or favorite as a whole but it seems that home dog vs the spread in these scenarios are hitting at roughly 59%. Was curious to know if you would favor an addition to the system where you are betting a road favorite but then turn around and bet a portion of the payount on the spread of the home dog. This adds a small amount of hedging in case the dog wins outright and leaves a chance for a middle and hit both bets. In reality, the point of this system is to pick games that shouldnt be close however these double digit road favorites seem to leave themselves open to dogs covering. Interested in your thoughts.

AceKingHigh · 10-21-12, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by utmoody10

mcduggly as you know I have been following this system the past few weeks and have done a bit of research for this years eligible college football games (full games). Here is a summary through week 8.

THROUGH WEEK 8
DOGS VS SPREAD		DOG COVER %
WINS	LOSSES
87	85	50.58%

MONEYLINE WINNERS		FAVORITE WINNING %
FAVORITES	DOGS
161	15	91.48%

HOME VS SPREAD
	WINS	LOSSES	WINNING %
FAVORITES	63	56	52.94%
UNDERDOGS	32	20	61.54%

MONEYLINE RECORDS
	WINS	LOSSES	WINNING %
-350 TO -500	35	7	83.33%
-501 TO -750	47	4	92.16%
-751 TO -1000	17	2	89.47%
-1000+	59	2	96.72%

As you can see eligible favorites are hitting at nearly a 92% clip. Wanted to see if there was any trend with dogs vs spread as well. All in all the numbers do not favor dog or favorite as a whole but it seems that home dog vs the spread in these scenarios are hitting at nearly 62%. Was curious to know if you would favor an addition to the system where you are betting a road favorite but then turn around and bet a portion of the payount on the spread of the home dog. This adds a small amount of hedging in case the dog wins outright and leaves a chance for a middle and hit both bets. In reality, the point of this system is to pick games that shouldnt be close however these double digit road favorites seem to leave themselves open to dogs covering. Interested in your thoughts.

good info, how did you get it? thx

House · 10-21-12, 10:04 AM

^^^^^^^^ Great work utmoody ......I like this guy

you have some good people around you mcduggly

love that info

utmoody10 · 10-21-12, 10:19 AM

Originally posted by AceKingHigh

good info, how did you get it? thx

These #s were based on info from wagertracker.com. They catalog their lines based on the closing Pinnacle odds. Basically went back since week 1 in the college football season and compiled a spreadsheet of each eligible game. It is up for a bit of interpretation as something that qualifies as a play on one book may not on another and also there was one -1000+ upset that was not included (Texas St over Houston) since it did not show a moneyline being offered. This is a good representation however of how the season has went thus far.

mcduggly · 10-21-12, 11:07 AM

The only thing I don't like about those numbers is that they include -1000 or higher favorites. If there was a way to break that down, that would be extremely beneficial.

House · 10-21-12, 11:57 AM

GL today mcduggly

FreddDS · 10-21-12, 03:06 PM

Houston rout! 3 for 3, mcduggly! Good job!

nic9212 · 10-21-12, 03:09 PM

Sharp pick on the texans mcduggly

mcduggly · 10-21-12, 03:17 PM

Hey guys, next pick is the Patriots so hurry up and get it! I'll write more, but wanted to let you know before the game started.

mcduggly · 10-21-12, 03:18 PM

Originally posted by FreddDS

Houston rout! 3 for 3, mcduggly! Good job!

Originally posted by nic9212

Sharp pick on the texans mcduggly

A4K · 10-21-12, 03:18 PM

Originally posted by mcduggly

Hey guys, next pick is the Patriots so hurry up and get it! I'll write more, but wanted to let you know before the game started.

Already on it! Get some!

mcduggly · 10-21-12, 03:26 PM

#1. San Jose State over Texas San Antonio - $100 to win $21.05 - WIN
#2. Alabama over Tennessee First Half - $121.05 to win $20.18 - WIN
#3. Houston Texans over Baltimore Ravens - $141.23 to win $44.13 - WIN

This was another blowout by the Texans, and there really isn't much else to say. The offense and defense seemed to be rolling on all cylinders today, which was good for us.

mcduggly · 10-21-12, 03:29 PM

Attempt #2 - Bet #3 :
New England Patriots over New York Jets First Half @-320
Bet $185.36 to win $57.93

I like the Patriots to come out and do work against the Jets without Revis. I can't see the Jets scoring many points, especially in the first half when they aren't getting garbage yards and scores. Good luck guys!

pokerwhiz90 · 10-21-12, 03:32 PM

Man couldn't get it in time... kinda hard tho when you posted lol

mcduggly · 10-21-12, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by pokerwhiz90

Man couldn't get it in time... kinda hard tho when you posted lol

All you have to do is come on when the current bet is finished. Not hard at all.

pokerwhiz90 · 10-21-12, 03:48 PM

lol i checked the page at 3:28, and than i checked at 3:30.... just my luck right? you posted at 3:29.... LOL

mcduggly · 10-21-12, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by pokerwhiz90

lol i checked the page at 3:28, and than i checked at 3:30.... just my luck right? you posted at 3:29.... LOL

Look at post #91. I posted it at 3:17.

mcduggly · 10-21-12, 05:04 PM

#1. San Jose State over Texas San Antonio - $100 to win $21.05 - WIN
#2. Alabama over Tennessee First Half - $121.05 to win $20.18 - WIN
#3. Houston Texans over Baltimore Ravens - $141.23 to win $44.13 - WIN
#4. New England Patriots over New York Jets First Half - $185.36 to win $57.93 - WIN

Tom Brady actually didn't much in the first half, but a kickoff return for a touchdown and a nice balanced drive was enough for the Patriots to win the half by 6. The Pats also had a safety. I like the Patriots second half moneyline bet, but the line is in the -200's, so it's a little low for this system. With that said, I think I might be done with this week's games, ending on a 4-game winning streak.

pokerwhiz90 · 10-21-12, 05:06 PM

congrats on your pick for 1st half.... yeah i glanced at it but wasn't sure - the jets actually have a chance to win... so im kinda glad i didnt take the entire game...

nic9212 · 10-21-12, 05:06 PM

congrats on first half, Im on New England for the game at -615. Looking good though

was a minute or two too late for first half

mcduggly · 10-21-12, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by pokerwhiz90

congrats on your pick for 1st half.... yeah i glanced at it but wasn't sure - the jets actually have a chance to win... so im kinda glad i didnt take the entire game...

I don't know, I think the Pats blow it open in the second half.

nvrlose37 · 10-21-12, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by mcduggly

#1. San Jose State over Texas San Antonio - $100 to win $21.05 - WIN
#2. Alabama over Tennessee First Half - $121.05 to win $20.18 - WIN
#3. Houston Texans over Baltimore Ravens - $141.23 to win $44.13 - WIN
#4. New England Patriots over New York Jets First Half - $185.36 to win $57.93 - WIN

Tom Brady actually didn't much in the first half, but a kickoff return for a touchdown and a nice balanced drive was enough for the Patriots to win the half by 6. The Pats also had a safety. I like the Patriots second half moneyline bet, but the line is in the -200's, so it's a little low for this system. With that said, I think I might be done with this week's games, ending on a 4-game winning streak.

You forgot to thank the Patriots MVP Mark Sanchez.

mcduggly · 10-21-12, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by nic9212

congrats on first half, Im on New England for the game at -615. Looking good though

was a minute or two too late for first half

Yea, sorry I didn't say first half in my initial post, but I was in a rush haha. Good luck! I just took Patriots winning the second half, so hopefully the end up winning by more than 6.