Hey everyone new to the forum saying hey. I bet exclusively boxing and mma because those are the only sports I watch. For the boxing and mma bettors I am curious about your results. I started betting about 7 months thinking that I am pretty good at predicting outcomes. If it comes down to just picking winners then I am very accurate but just betting on the favorites is obviously not a good strategy. Towards the beginning I bet on fights where I was sure of the winner and tried to find the best odds that I can. I would bet as much as 10% of my bankroll on picks. My success rate in picks were high but my betting results were volatile. In the long run my bankroll was going increasing but there was quite a bit of volatility. I then switched to a system where I pretty much only bet on even money fights and on underdogs where I feel the fighter has significantly better chances then the oddsmakers have them. This way I don't need to be anywhere near as accurate to make profit but it is more difficult. I make an average of about 5 bets per week, and have found that there is a lot less volatility with this strategy. I have been averaging an 1.5% increase every week in my bankroll. The largest drop I have had was 1.5% and the biggest increase for the week was about 7%. The average like I said right now is 1.5%. For those that bet in boxing and mma can you tell me how much you average per week to give me an idea of where I am at? Thanks
Newbie intro with question for boxing/mma bettors
Collapse
X
-
hubsterSBR Hustler
- 11-23-11
- 68
Tags: None -
TheCalculatorSBR MVP
- 10-10-11
- 1683
#2Welcome!
It sounds like you've got a solid strategy that's working for you. Thanks for sharing your thoughts!
Looking forward to hearing your picks, strategies and progress.Comment -
zonedaveSBR Rookie
- 11-09-11
- 19
#3this sounds interesting, keep us updated on you progressComment -
v1ySBR MVP
- 05-02-11
- 1138
#4i bet like a madman and experienced ridiculous growth.
#1 rule for betting: never bet against someone you've never seen fight.
#2 rule: if you're going to bet a -300 favourite or better, you better be damn sure you know what you're doing.Comment -
hubsterSBR Hustler
- 11-23-11
- 68
#5
Rule number 2 I totally agree but at this point I pretty much phased out those bets especially in mma fights which can end so easily with the small gloves and the cuts that can end fights easily.Comment -
GibletsSBR Hustler
- 09-10-11
- 78
#6I personally see almost no value in betting on favorites -400 or lower. I broke my rule when I bet on Jon Jones vs Rampage and I regretted it as soon as Jones started crawling around leaving his face exposed at the beginning of the fight. Fighters get sick or injured and don't call off the fight way too often. That and inconsistent judging keeps me away from heavy favorites.Comment -
jacktheknifeSBR MVP
- 09-25-10
- 1217
#7I personally see almost no value in betting on favorites -400 or lower. I broke my rule when I bet on Jon Jones vs Rampage and I regretted it as soon as Jones started crawling around leaving his face exposed at the beginning of the fight. Fighters get sick or injured and don't call off the fight way too often. That and inconsistent judging keeps me away from heavy favorites.Comment -
KaladarusSBR MVP
- 11-11-09
- 1876
#8Put some numbers together and do your research. You don't need to bet -150/+150 range only. This limits your opportunities to make money. Any line regardless of the number can hold value. -2000/+2000 lines can hold value. What you decide to do with those lines and what you can do based on your bankroll are separate things.Comment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
#9Put some numbers together and do your research. You don't need to bet -150/+150 range only. This limits your opportunities to make money. Any line regardless of the number can hold value. -2000/+2000 lines can hold value. What you decide to do with those lines and what you can do based on your bankroll are separate things.Comment -
GibletsSBR Hustler
- 09-10-11
- 78
#10I've made more money then I've lost parleying some heavy favorites. Last I checked, I believe favorites over -300 in the UFC were something like 26-5 for the first half of the year or so. I remember because one of those upsets was Tito over Bader, which this humble punter bet on, thank you very much.Comment -
hubsterSBR Hustler
- 11-23-11
- 68
#11Put some numbers together and do your research. You don't need to bet -150/+150 range only. This limits your opportunities to make money. Any line regardless of the number can hold value. -2000/+2000 lines can hold value. What you decide to do with those lines and what you can do based on your bankroll are separate things.Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#12I never bet straight up on a line worse than -225 unless I'm confident the fighter has an advantage in all areas - i.e Hominick against Leonard Garcia - but even then I won't bet on a fighter straight up at worse than -300 as I think there is always more value to be found in props - I.e taking Jon Jones Sub of the Night against Bader at +700 instead of Bones straight up at -350 or whatever it was.Comment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
#13I never bet a line worse than -300 unless I think the fighter wins more than 75% of the time. I never bet a line worse than -900 unless the fighter wins more than 90% of the time, I never bet a line worse than -1900 unless I think the fighter wins more than 95% of the time.Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#14I never bet a line worse than -300 unless I think the fighter wins more than 75% of the time. I never bet a line worse than -900 unless the fighter wins more than 90% of the time, I never bet a line worse than -1900 unless I think the fighter wins more than 95% of the time.Comment -
PunisherINDSBR MVP
- 02-24-11
- 4967
#15
uyenoyama over kid yamamoto
anthony perosh over diabate
bartimus over tyson griffin
lazuon over guillard
hunt over rothwell
justin edwards over jorge lopez
ludwig over sodallah
i was personally burned by griffin, guillard and sodallah (as well as bader earlier in the year). that said, i do think you can do quite well parlaying big favorites. i'm up about 70 units on the year strictly on parlays on big favs.Comment -
TheCalculatorSBR MVP
- 10-10-11
- 1683
#16
ha This is right in principle, but just because you think a fighter wins 75% doesn't mean you are necessarily right though does it? For you it might be okay because you know how to use Kelly criterion, an idea of bankroll management etc... but for a newbie who doesn't have a lot experience, doesn't use Kelly betting etc... I think it's safer to have certain parameters that they follow. How does one factor in potential for a dodgy decision? How do you factor in potential for somebody getting injured half way through the fight? How do you factor in the potential for Matt Lucas getting a point taken away for spitting out his mouth-guard?! What happens if a noob to MMA betting has a £100 to his name and thinks that Jon Jones beats Machida 95% of the time so throws all 100 on Jones at -450 then Jones gets disqualified for throwing 12to6 elbows?
We all do our best to factor those in -- but most of these elements are unknowable most of the time.Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#17thats about right for the first half of the year, but there have been more big upsets in the second half:
uyenoyama over kid yamamoto
anthony perosh over diabate
bartimus over tyson griffin
lazuon over guillard
hunt over rothwell
justin edwards over jorge lopez
ludwig over sodallah
i was personally burned by griffin, guillard and sodallah (as well as bader earlier in the year). that said, i do think you can do quite well parlaying big favorites. i'm up about 70 units on the year strictly on parlays on big favs.Comment -
hubsterSBR Hustler
- 11-23-11
- 68
#18What Vaughany is referring too is the UNPREDICTABLE NON-LINEAR nature of fighting, judging and life itself. When you look at heavier weight classes -- there's more KO-1-punch power elements to deal with. What if a guy is sick the day of the fight? Injured? Had a horrible weight cut? No longer motivated? Had a horrible camp? Personal problems? Bribed to lose?
We all do our best to factor those in -- but most of these elements are unknowable most of the time.Comment -
varkolekSBR High Roller
- 07-17-11
- 230
#19
Since the start of this year I've increased my bankroll by a bit more than 5X. At the start of the year I was doing a lot of dumb things like betting on fighters I hadn't seen footage of etc. Before August I think I went 3 months with a bankroll increase of only 50%.
At about August my download quota increased a lot so I could finally download footage of fighters as needed. In September I increased my banrkoll by about 50%. October I made nothing, lost about $5 or $10. October didn't have many events and I lost a stupid bet on Bellator. This month I'm up by about $400. I don't know what I make a week, for example, in October nothing or a negative amount.
I usually work more than 50 hours a week, so I don't get a chance to research every match I'd like or bet on most fights on the card. On average, I probably make less a week gambling than I do in 1 day of work. Work is guaranteed income, but next year if my average weekly profits are more than I make in a day's work, I may cut back to less than 40 hours a week so I can get a few more bets in. At the moment it's more productive to work than gamble, and I never turn down shifts because last year was very difficult for me financially.Comment -
hubsterSBR Hustler
- 11-23-11
- 68
#21So I listed my betting strategy and have been reading up on the Kelly Criterion lately. Anyone hear exclusively use kelly for boxing/mma picks and is it useful for those kinds of bets or is it better suited for other sports?Comment -
TheCalculatorSBR MVP
- 10-10-11
- 1683
#22Here's a whole thread about it:
Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.
I think NunyaBidness is one of the heaviest bettors here (in terms of sizes of bets and probably size of roll) and he uses it.
I also use it -- however I'm in your boat bro. Just getting started. And I've made mistakes (over estimating edge and going full kelly).Comment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
#23ha This is right in principle, but just because you think a fighter wins 75% doesn't mean you are necessarily right though does it? For you it might be okay because you know how to use Kelly criterion, an idea of bankroll management etc... but for a newbie who doesn't have a lot experience, doesn't use Kelly betting etc... I think it's safer to have certain parameters that they follow. How does one factor in potential for a dodgy decision? How do you factor in potential for somebody getting injured half way through the fight? How do you factor in the potential for Matt Lucas getting a point taken away for spitting out his mouth-guard?! What happens if a noob to MMA betting has a £100 to his name and thinks that Jon Jones beats Machida 95% of the time so throws all 100 on Jones at -450 then Jones gets disqualified for throwing 12to6 elbows?
No, estimations are wildly off, more often than not. I look over cards when I'm done and make a estimation of what the true line should have been.
But, you're off in both directions, so it tends to average out.
Once, you have a signifcant churn and your ROI has converged, AND you're beating closers regularly you can be certain that the trend will continue. Individual events don't matter very much.
In regards to the noob with a tiny bankroll, well I would say good job getting that bet down. That line was well off, Jones should've been -1400 or worse. If you're bankroll is that small then its not really a bankroll because it's easily replaceable, and I would advising gambling hard to turn it into something meaningful, OR if it isn't easily replaceable your time would be better spent getting a second job, and starting with something significant. It's hard to turn $100 into $2000, but its easy to turn $2000 into $5000.Comment -
Mr HandicapableSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-23-07
- 6067
#24I'm no MMA expert and don't bet often due to the crazy lines but I guess some of the same principles from football betting would still apply. The public favorites always get overbet so there is some value going against them. I'm a Fedor fan and I saw how much he struggled with a tomato can like Brett Rogers so I figured Werdum or Bigfoot Silva were getting great value. Personally I've done well with small dogs....cashed nicely at +120 with Forrest Griffin over Rich Franklin a while back. Overall I would say the lines are so crazy that betting on MMA should be strictly recreational. For instance baseball has a dime line (-120 +110), football 20 cent line while MMA is always 30 or more?Comment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
#25I'm no MMA expert and don't bet often due to the crazy lines but I guess some of the same principles from football betting would still apply. The public favorites always get overbet so there is some value going against them. I'm a Fedor fan and I saw how much he struggled with a tomato can like Brett Rogers so I figured Werdum or Bigfoot Silva were getting great value. Personally I've done well with small dogs....cashed nicely at +120 with Forrest Griffin over Rich Franklin a while back. Overall I would say the lines are so crazy that betting on MMA should be strictly recreational. For instance baseball has a dime line (-120 +110), football 20 cent line while MMA is always 30 or more?
Betting is betting it doesn't matter what the sport is.
Public favorites being overvalued is an overvalued idea. In big market games there are people who understand the game and the math more than you and I and anyone we know. They have deep pockets, and if the value was there, they would have already beat the line back to fair.
Small markets always have more juice. Baseball can have a dimeline because it's a pretty well solved game.
There is less vig on a line of +1200/-2000 than there is on a -110/-110 line. The cents don't matter, the overround does.
If you think it should be strictly recreational then you're saying it's not beatable. If it's not beatable, why touch it at all?Comment -
hubsterSBR Hustler
- 11-23-11
- 68
#26I have been playing around with the sbr forum kelly tool. When calculating my win probability do I do that based on what I think the chances are on my pick to win or lets say the odds are -110 I look at my previous -110 bets and look what my percentage was on those bets and calculate based on that?
Also using that calculator how do I calculate a parlay bet?
ThanksComment -
Vulcan300SBR Wise Guy
- 02-11-11
- 806
#27i personally take insight from some of the reputable members on the forum and usually parlay 2-3 fights with a few straight wagers if my initial take on a fight matches up with a majority of others on here. bankroll management is the biggest aspect since my start, one of the books i used to use didn't offer parlays which imo is one of the better sports to utilize them in.Comment -
TheCalculatorSBR MVP
- 10-10-11
- 1683
#28I have been playing around with the sbr forum kelly tool. When calculating my win probability do I do that based on what I think the chances are on my pick to win or lets say the odds are -110 I look at my previous -110 bets and look what my percentage was on those bets and calculate based on that?
Also using that calculator how do I calculate a parlay bet?
ThanksComment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
#29Multiply your expected win % for each leg of the parlay, enter the result in win probability. Convert the payout to whichever odds your comfortable (decimal is easier here) with, enter your kelly multiplier, and click calculate.
If the numbers seem high you may be overestimating your edge on one or more fights.Comment -
hubsterSBR Hustler
- 11-23-11
- 68
#30Multiply your expected win % for each leg of the parlay, enter the result in win probability. Convert the payout to whichever odds your comfortable (decimal is easier here) with, enter your kelly multiplier, and click calculate.
If the numbers seem high you may be overestimating your edge on one or more fights.Comment -
hubsterSBR Hustler
- 11-23-11
- 68
#31Multiply your expected win % for each leg of the parlay, enter the result in win probability. Convert the payout to whichever odds your comfortable (decimal is easier here) with, enter your kelly multiplier, and click calculate.
If the numbers seem high you may be overestimating your edge on one or more fights.Comment -
bjpenn85SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-17-11
- 5059
#320.45 x 0.45 x 0.45 = 0.09 = 9%..wouldnt spend to much money on that parlayComment -
hubsterSBR Hustler
- 11-23-11
- 68
#33Oh, gotcha. Thanks everybody.Comment -
hubsterSBR Hustler
- 11-23-11
- 68
#34Another question about the SBR kelly calculator. What do I enter for US Odds if the odds are even money?Comment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
#35100Comment
SBR Contests
Collapse
Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
Collapse
#1 BetMGM
4.8/5 BetMGM Bonus Code
#2 FanDuel
4.8/5 FanDuel Promo Code
#3 Caesars
4.8/5 Caesars Promo Code
#4 DraftKings
4.7/5 DraftKings Promo Code
#5 Fanatics
#6 bet365
4.7/5 bet365 Bonus Code
#7 Hard Rock
4.1/5 Hard Rock Bet Promo Code
#8 BetRivers
4.1/5 BetRivers Bonus Code