T-Wizz Tourney Plays

[t-wizzle]

Florida 2H +2.5 -107 (4x)


Should have gone with my gut and taken the Gators before tip. Louisville may make a couple runs but Florida should win this game by a comfortable margin.

[t-wizzle]

Kansas ML -125 (7x)

[t-wizzle]

Fought back hard after a rough start to the tourney. Final Four is going to be good.

[t-wizzle]

Kentucky -8.5 -101 (5x)


I wanted to grab the 8.5 now just in case it moves to 9 or higher. I will likely add to this play later in the week and could go as high as 15x.

[t-wizzle]

Adding:

Kentucky -8 - 109 (5x)


That's 10x total on the Wildcats.

[ridims]

tailing.

[t-wizzle]

tailing.

Let's get it

[ridims]

missed ft's cost us the $. I got the push. ending wasnt the greatest

whats your next play?

[t-wizzle]

Kansas +3 -108 (10x)

[t-wizzle]

missed ft's cost us the $. I got the push. ending wasnt the greatest

whats your next play?

I'm playing with house money ridims. you can take Kansas if you want but i don't suggest tailing.

[jdhender]

Good luck - on Kansas as well

[t-wizzle]

Kansas ML +145 (2.5x)

[Dexter]

just looked at your spreadsheet.....great basketball season bro

[ridims]

glad i tailed. never doubted your play on kansas. good call.

[t-wizzle]

just looked at your spreadsheet.....great basketb
all season bro

Thanks dex I'm on a good run right now but i need to sustain it

[t-wizzle]

glad i tailed. never doubted your play on kansas.
good call.

thanks pal I'm glad you won money it was a hell of a game

[t-wizzle]

Just tallied up the numbers...

For Tourney plays I am 15-19-1 and +10.41 Units. If you include the NIT plays I threw in I am 19-19 and +21.24 Units.

Just about every big play has hit. The only thing that hurt me was the first two days when I got absolutely hammered. I follow the college game pretty closely though so as the top teams have gone up against each other I've been pretty good with picking winners.

I want to take Kansas in the Final but I think Kentucky -6 is probably the play.

[Dexter]

Thanks dex I'm on a good run right now but i need to sustain it

what other sports do you play besides hoops?

press when you're hot man - thats my style and its netted me 140u in the past 12 months (thats with a 95u loss in college hoops). i play mlb, nfl, ncaaf, nba, ncaab. but besides pressing sometimes, my autoplays have a ton to do with my results....wish i had some for college hoops. just dont follow the sport enough.

[t-wizzle]

what other sports do you play besides hoops?

press when you're hot man - thats my style and its netted me 140u in the past 12 months (thats with a 95u loss in college hoops). i play mlb, nfl, ncaaf, nba, ncaab. but besides pressing sometimes, my autoplays have a ton to do with my results....wish i had some for college hoops. just dont follow the sport enough.

I'm big on basketball, both pros and college. I tend to do best late in the season/postseason for both because it always involves matchups of good teams and you don't get fukked over by shit teams.

I bet on football too but as you know the nfl is really tough. Not sure exactly how i did but I definitely lost money this year. I always do better when I limit my plays but it's hard when they are all loaded up on one day of the week. Had an awesome year in college football this past season.

I don't do too much baseball. Committed a lot of time to it in September and October last year and was extremely hot, on a run like I am on right now. I think I'd struggle over the course of a long season though.

I follow most sports closely and even though I make a lot of plays based on situations and line movement, I'd say the biggest factor is just my knowledge of the teams and the sports.

Definitely wouldn't call myself a winning gambler because I've lost plenty but when I stay true to my style I almost always have success.

[ridims]

[t-wizzle]

Still leaning Kentucky... I know a lot of really bad cappers are on them but sometimes the dopes win once in a while.

Let's not forget that the public was winning a lot this tourney before the books got some back in the last couple rounds.

If I have time I will give my breakdown of this game. I'll keep it as brief as possible.

[No coincidences]

I feel like if Kentucky were the play, the line would be at least 7 by now at the sharp books.

[t-wizzle]

I feel like if Kentucky were the play, the line would be at least 7 by now at the sharp books.

Why? Kansas is still a pretty damn good team, I doubt the books would want to expose themselves by moving any higher than where they are now.

[No coincidences]

Why? Kansas is still a pretty damn good team, I doubt the books would want to expose themselves by moving any higher than where they are now.

If sharp money were on Kentucky, the books would have no choice.

[t-wizzle]

If sharp money were on Kentucky, the books would have no choice.

They've already settled on their number. This isn't a line movement game. The only line movement worth watching would be late money but I don't even think that will give you anything worth while.

Kentucky is the play tonight but not a big one by any means. They should win this game by around 10 points or so but it's still a team loaded with freshmen and it's still the national championship.

[No coincidences]

They've already settled on their number. This isn't a line movement game. The only line movement worth watching would be late money but I don't even think that will give you anything worth while.

Kentucky is the play tonight but not a big one by any means. They should win this game by around 10 points or so but it's still a team loaded with freshmen and it's still the national championship.

Why should they win by around 10 points? I don't see any angle to playing Kentucky to be honest. I think you either take the points or lay off.

[t-wizzle]

Why should they win by around 10 points? I don't see any angle to playing Kentucky to be honest. I think you either take the points or lay off.

Because they don't have enough fire power to hang with Kentucky. I've always been a Jayhawks fan and as much as I'd love to see Kansas win this game I don't see any way in hell that they pull it off. Withey is the reason they've been so strong this year since around mid-January or so but his defense and rebounding will be neutralized big time by Davis. I don't really trust Taylor to have a big game but you never know what he's going to give you.


I'm likely taking Kentucky at either -6 or -6.5 for no more than 3 units.

[No coincidences]

Because they don't have enough fire power to hang with Kentucky. I've always been a Jayhawks fan and as much as I'd love to see Kansas win this game I don't see any way in hell that they pull it off. Withey is the reason they've been so strong this year since around mid-January or so but his defense and rebounding will be neutralized big time by Davis. I don't really trust Taylor to have a big game but you never know what he's going to give you.


I'm likely taking Kentucky at either -6 or -6.5 for no more than 3 units.

Louisville did? Kansas has more talent than Louisville.

[t-wizzle]

Louisville did? Kansas has more talent than Louisville.

What exactly is your comparison here? Louisville is a scrappy team and they did exactly what they've been doing for the past month. They still shouldn't have covered given the weird ending and all the missed free throws. Louisville doesn't have the talent but they were on a roll and their defensive style lends itself to hanging in games.

The transitive property doesn't work in college basketball, I'm surprised you tried to just use it. The Louisville/Kentucky game has absolutely nothing to do with tonight.

[No coincidences]

What exactly is your comparison here? Louisville is a scrappy team and they did exactly what they've been doing for the past month. They still shouldn't have covered given the weird ending and all the missed free throws. Louisville doesn't have the talent but they were on a roll and their defensive style lends itself to hanging in games.

The transitive property doesn't work in college basketball, I'm surprised you tried to just use it. The Louisville/Kentucky game has absolutely nothing to do with tonight.

I'm just saying that despite the fact that Kentucky is "better" on paper than Kansas -- the same way they were "better" on paper than Louisville -- they're still a bunch of really young kids and -6.5 is asking a lot in such a high-pressure game.

[t-wizzle]

I'm just saying that despite the fact that Kentucky is "better" on paper than Kansas -- the same way they were "better" on paper than Louisville -- they're still a bunch of really young kids and -6.5 is asking a lot in such a high-pressure game.

Why would Kansas be the play?

[No coincidences]

I'm trying to figure out, too, what you mean about Louisville's defense. Kansas doesn't have an elite defense?

[No coincidences]

Why would Kansas be the play?

Because they're getting the points, they have no pressure compared to Kentucky, they have a senior point guard who won't be harassed by a top defender and can neutralize Teague, they have bodies underneath to hang with Kentucky on the boards and they have an elite, Top-5 defense.

I would probably take Kentucky 1H if you want to bet Kentucky and see what happens from there. Kansas hasn't shown they can start quickly at all this entire tournament -- not sure why that would change tonight.

[t-wizzle]

I'm trying to figure out, too, what you mean about Louisville's defense. Kansas doesn't have an elite defense?

Seriously man? Now you're putting words in my mouth. I said Louisville's defensive style lends itself well to hanging in games. If you watched them at all this year you'd know use a lot of ball pressure and of course they full-court press all game.

[PAULYPOKER]

Pinny likes Kansas



Point spreads

time

kan

kenty

04/02 07:15 pm	+6½ -115	-6½ +104
04/02 07:05 pm	+6½ -114	-6½ +103
04/02 07:01 pm	+6½ -113	-6½ +102
04/02 07:00 pm	+6½ -110	-6½ +100
04/02 06:51 pm	+6 +102	-6 -113
04/02 06:37 pm	+6 +101	-6 -111
04/02 06:35 pm	+6 -101	-6 -109
04/02 06:26 pm	+6 +101	-6 -111
04/02 04:14 pm	+6 +100	-6 -110
04/02 04:12 pm	+6½ -114	-6½ +103
04/02 03:27 pm	+6 +100	-6 -110
04/02 03:26 pm	+6½ -113	-6½ +102
04/02 03:04 pm	+6½ -110	-6½ +100
04/02 02:01 pm	+6 +100	-6 -110
04/02 02:00 pm	+6½ -113	-6½ +102
04/02 02:00 pm	+6 +105	-6 -116
04/02 01:59 pm	+6 +102	-6 -113
04/02 01:50 pm	+6 +100	-6 -110
04/02 01:49 pm	+6 +102	-6 -113
04/02 01:46 pm	+6 +104	-6 -115
04/02 01:00 pm	+6 +100	-6 -110
04/02 01:00 pm	+6 +102	-6 -113
04/02 12:33 pm	+6½ -113	-6½ +102
04/02 12:27 pm	+6½ -110	-6½ +100
04/02 10:49 am	+6½ -113	-6½ +102
04/02 10:11 am	+6½ -110	-6½ +100
04/02 09:29 am	+6 +100	-6 -110
04/01 08:06 pm	+6 -102	-6 -108
04/01 10:44 am	+6 -103	-6 -107
04/01 08:56 am	+6 -105	-6 -105
04/01 08:22 am	+6 -107	-6 -103
04/01 03:48 am	+6½ -120	-6½ +109
04/01 01:10 am	+6½ -113	-6½ +102
04/01 12:40 am	+6½ -109	-6½ -101