10 CBB Plays Wednesday

AlwaysDrawing · 02-15-12, 12:16 PM

USC is going to get smashed.

LT Profits · 02-15-12, 12:23 PM

Let them get smashed by 14

AlwaysDrawing · 02-15-12, 12:27 PM

LT, do you think that there is something structural which hurts handicappers during conference play?

It seems like my results are always worse after Jan 1 until the tournament, and while I may still have some value, it's tough to really believe that with RAS not even willing to play during conference play anymore.

There's less variability when you have so many data points against the same teams to analyze games, yet it seems like every "sharp" struggles just picking sides/totals this time of year. It's always tough to know what's variance on coin flips, and my results seem like just that--great weighted coin flips during the tournaments and non-conference early season play, and I may as well be flipping at -110s during conference play.

AlwaysDrawing · 02-15-12, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Let them get smashed by 14

If they can hit 3s they can keep it close, and the slow pace will help, but I'm on UCLA

HoulihansTX · 02-15-12, 12:50 PM

-15, and 115 total means a correlated parlay is in order.

chunk · 02-15-12, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by AlwaysDrawing

LT, do you think that there is something structural which hurts handicappers during conference play?

It seems like my results are always worse after Jan 1 until the tournament, and while I may still have some value, it's tough to really believe that with RAS not even willing to play during conference play anymore.

There's less variability when you have so many data points against the same teams to analyze games, yet it seems like every "sharp" struggles just picking sides/totals this time of year. It's always tough to know what's variance on coin flips, and my results seem like just that--great weighted coin flips during the tournaments and non-conference early season play, and I may as well be flipping at -110s during conference play.

I believe that the main reason it becomes more difficult to win is simply that the lines are sharper. No question that you have to shift gears more than once as the season progresses. You can win in the last couple of months, but margins are much more slim than before.

Tournaments are a completely different animal....very tough. I think that there is a window in all major markets when you better make it. Once that window closes, it's a grind to say the least.

dredmahawkus · 02-15-12, 04:36 PM

exactly! lines seem so sharp lately.....I have been thinking that all week and playing some plays I shouldnt because the lines are so sharp.

romoney · 02-15-12, 11:18 PM

LT..i just had a new baby..3 kids now...Are those your kids in that avatar?? ive been here a good while...did you ever think about putting updated pics of them in avatar..just saying..no way in hell being rude or mean..BOL to you...

MJT1212 · 02-16-12, 01:52 AM

Originally posted by romoney

LT..i just had a new baby..3 kids now...Are those your kids in that avatar?? ive been here a good while...did you ever think about putting updated pics of them in avatar..just saying..no way in hell being rude or mean..BOL to you...

I thought LT was the guy on the left side of his avatar?

Inkwell77 · 02-16-12, 02:02 AM

Rough day man. 2-8. Stay strong. You'll get these units back in cbb. Saturday could be a big day with bracketbusters.

drfunkmaster · 02-16-12, 02:24 AM

wow sorry bro.... tomorrow will be a strong day

dredmahawkus · 02-16-12, 05:50 AM

Wow LT me and you both killed this week! I am highly considering to take the opposite of everything I like today. This is insane! I lost half of the units I was up for the season in 3 days!

LT Profits · 02-16-12, 07:58 AM

Originally posted by MJT1212

I thought LT was the guy on the left side of his avatar?

No I am not quite that young.

LT Profits · 02-16-12, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by Inkwell77

Rough day man. 2-8. Stay strong. You'll get these units back in cbb. Saturday could be a big day with bracketbusters.

Originally posted by drfunkmaster

wow sorry bro.... tomorrow will be a strong day

Originally posted by dredmahawkus

Wow LT me and you both killed this week! I am highly considering to take the opposite of everything I like today. This is insane! I lost half of the units I was up for the season in 3 days!

Yeah 2-16 last two days.

Profit down to +1.36.

It will turn around though, it always does.