Interesting read from KU - Oddsmakers on Allen Fieldhouse

[Basehorhonda]

http://www2.kusports.com/news/2012/jan/25/no-place-home-vegas-oddsmaker-talks-kus-advantage-/

[BettingWizard]

Kornegay dispelled a myth about the goal of line-setters, which we all always have been told is to draw equal money on both teams. By doing so, the house would always profit because for the one placing the wager, winning $100 requires betting $110. “Our goal is to win more than we lose,” Kornegay said. “That’s what we try to do. It’s rare that you have a game that you have equal action on both sides. Is that what the line’s supposed to do? Yeah. It rarely happens. I would say one out of 10 games we look at and say ‘It doesn’t matter who wins, we’re going to win (because there is roughly equal money on both sides).’”
The reaction to the seven-point spread didn’t surprise the oddsmakers.
“I would say most of the tickets were on Baylor, no doubt about it,” Kornegay said. “We heard them talking about it on the other side of the counter, and they were saying what we thought they would say, ‘Undefeated, ranked third. I can’t believe it. This doesn’t make sense.’”
The folks setting the lines have to take into consideration more than the average bettor’s anticipated reaction.
“We have to protect against the sharps,” Kornegay said.
The sharps?
“The professionals, the wise guys,” Kornegay said, meaning the hard-core, serious gamblers who come armed with research and a knack for picking games. “They have their opinions as well. Most of our lines are to keep those guys in check. Most of the money that comes in on a daily basis is from these types of players.”




Everybody should read that 10 times

[H1Cypher]

I've only been wagering for a couple months. Maybe it is the volume of my bets or the fact that I look for angles. But to me it is pretty apparent- they know what side people will be choosing... they anticipate this and they account for it.

I'm glad I seem to be on the right track of thinking =).

[Filmoz]

Lesson: If you see a line and the only reasons you can think of why a team should cover are the things that Joe Schmoe who is in Vegas for a convention is saying to himself when he looks up at the board, think harder. Or more simply put, if it looks to good to be true....

[No coincidences]

“We have to protect against the sharps,” Kornegay said.
The sharps?
“The professionals, the wise guys,” Kornegay said, meaning the hard-core, serious gamblers who come armed with research and a knack for picking games. “They have their opinions as well. Most of our lines are to keep those guys in check. Most of the money that comes in on a daily basis is from these types of players.”




Everybody should read that 10 times

Especially this part. You hear a lot of talk about fading the public and chasing steam or piggybacking "sharp" money, but it's entirely possible that lines are being shifted a certain way to protect against and try to confuse the whales vs. the smaller public bettors.

[No coincidences]

I'd be interested to hear what oddsmakers say about adjusting to the Internet. The free information available to your average gambler today vs. just a few years ago is staggering. How have they countered that?

[Inkwell77]

Kornegay dispelled a myth about the goal of line-setters, which we all always have been told is to draw equal money on both teams. By doing so, the house would always profit because for the one placing the wager, winning $100 requires betting $110. “Our goal is to win more than we lose,” Kornegay said. “That’s what we try to do. It’s rare that you have a game that you have equal action on both sides. Is that what the line’s supposed to do? Yeah. It rarely happens. I would say one out of 10 games we look at and say ‘It doesn’t matter who wins, we’re going to win (because there is roughly equal money on both sides).’”
The reaction to the seven-point spread didn’t surprise the oddsmakers.
“I would say most of the tickets were on Baylor, no doubt about it,” Kornegay said. “We heard them talking about it on the other side of the counter, and they were saying what we thought they would say, ‘Undefeated, ranked third. I can’t believe it. This doesn’t make sense.’”
The folks setting the lines have to take into consideration more than the average bettor’s anticipated reaction.
“We have to protect against the sharps,” Kornegay said.
The sharps?
“The professionals, the wise guys,” Kornegay said, meaning the hard-core, serious gamblers who come armed with research and a knack for picking games. “They have their opinions as well. Most of our lines are to keep those guys in check. Most of the money that comes in on a daily basis is from these types of players.”


Everybody should read that 10 times

[Inkwell77]

Especially this part. You hear a lot of talk about fading the public and chasing steam or piggybacking "sharp" money, but it's entirely possible that lines are being shifted a certain way to protect against and try to confuse the whales vs. the smaller public bettors.

I really would love to know this, but I never will.
My biggest concern is what is stopping a book from moving a line 2 points on air to incite steam chasers?
What is stopping a book from doing this?

[Coming Back!]

I have an idea, just pick who YOU think is going to win and call it a day. When you start psyching yourself out- you are done. Perfect example of a strange line is Heat -2 in Indiana, recently. It was obvious that the books loved Indy and expected to clean up. The game was over in the first qtr. It was like 25-9 Heat, before I blinked.