Washington -4

ManBearPig · 12-02-11, 04:44 AM

I'm a Nevada fan and I'll actually be at this game, I never bet on their games but I'm so tempted to take Washington here although this line is much smaller than I anticipated. You know the saying if it looks too good to be true...I just don't see how in the hell Nevada stays within 4. I know this team inside and out and nothing tells me they will contend in this one. Consistency and discipline are lacking severely here.

If the 3's aren't dropping it's over, that's the only thing that will keep them in it. They can get hot at home and if Story goes off it could be closer, but I just think Washington is better coached and has better athletes. They aren't hitting FT's and don't take care of the ball very well either. They may have some issues with our PG, who's a stud, but if he gets in foul trouble our backup would be better suited to serve gatorade.

I may be too close to the trees for this one, but it just seems like a gift IMO, I'm going to think about it though. I guess I can take solace in if I take WAS and don't win then it was a win or a closer competitive game than anyone thought. I can't see how this line stays under5 or or 6 so if you get can 4 get it now.

Inkwell77 · 12-02-11, 05:53 AM

3.5 pts now. wth am I missing?
I know UW is down, but come on....

KnowingNothing · 12-02-11, 05:55 AM

Same thoughts as you guys. When I saw the matchup, I was thinking near a double digit line. This is a big game for both teams, especially with NBA scouts that will be at the game.

Think the tempo, offense and athleticism will get the better of Nevada. They have some big games coming up and they can't afford to lose "easy" games like this, they also need to state their claim on the road.

Big play for me.

ksatch · 12-02-11, 07:40 AM

I have an idea what the bookmakers are seeing here. The St. Louis game was the only true road game that UW has had this season. The stats in that game were abysmal. Not saying this is an indicator as to what the rest of the season is going to look like, but it's probably what the books are using as a reference. All that being said, I like UW here as well.

leetreaper · 12-02-11, 08:08 AM

Already on it, gl.

pacocn · 12-02-11, 09:20 AM

Games in Nevada boyz, need
i say more.

lite1up · 12-02-11, 09:31 AM

I have an eerie feeling this game is going to end up burying the board just like Tennessee against Oakland.

Don't think I can bring myself to put money on Washington in this spot. These 4 point road favorites seem to be horrible at covering the spread

linehawk · 12-02-11, 12:07 PM

I took Nevada +4.5. I think the Huskies will be looking ahead to the Jimmy V Classic and getting Suggs back in the lineup.

RoadDog · 12-02-11, 12:32 PM

IC on Nevada +4.5

ManBearPig · 12-02-11, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by pacocn

Games in Nevada boyz, need
i say more.

I've been to every home game and watched them play with my eyes in almost every game this season...Longwood (yea who?) almost came back and won down from 15 and Missouri St win by 20+ pts in the 2H after a pretty competitive 1H...trust me home court is no advantage. The students/fans do not drive the team they expect the team to drive them and I surmise that we'll have a large Washington following tonight as their are quite a few fans in the area.

I do agree about the small road favorites...for some reason they are not very good at covering but I can't ignore what I've seen. So unless Washington just falls flat on their face or is looking ahead and displays little interest they should win this by at least 10. I'm off this but good luck to those who are.

grizzlies1 · 12-02-11, 01:08 PM

Haha when he said the games in Nevada I don't think he was talking about home court advantage!

zephyr · 12-02-11, 01:11 PM

Hammer Washington in this one. Nevada is down. Haven't got their footing since Fox left to Georgia. They've beat noone (Pacific and Bradley are not good this year, IMO; and Prairie View and Longwood ....). They are 253rd in the country in points scored per game (64.3) and 269th in field goal percentage (.404), and, other than UNLV, their schedule has not been much. The Huskies have some problems, but they are fast and athletic, they rebound very well, and they usually shoot pretty well from three. If Nevada is competitive in this one, my hat will be off to them. I don't see it.

RoadDog · 12-02-11, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by grizzlies1

Haha when he said the games in Nevada I don't think he was talking about home court advantage!

This game has a real Vegas rig-job feel to it. Last game of the night. Being played in Nevada. Fishy line. Take the points.

Untied · 12-02-11, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by ksatch

I have an idea what the bookmakers are seeing here. The St. Louis game was the only true road game that UW has had this season. The stats in that game were abysmal. Not saying this is an indicator as to what the rest of the season is going to look like, but it's probably what the books are using as a reference. All that being said, I like UW here as well.

THIS.

Washington is young and inconsistent. They were down 25 points @ the half to St. Louis in their only road game this year. They do have some talent, and should cover in this spot, but it's a no play for me.

zephyr · 12-02-11, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by RoadDog

This game has a real Vegas rig-job feel to it. Last game of the night. Being played in Nevada. Fishy line. Take the points.

Actually, I think Nevada is the last place you'd find a rig job. Gambling is legal in Nevada. It is regulated. There is a state agency in Nevada (Gaming Control Board, I think it's called) watching over it. There will probably be gambling regulators at the game. And everyone knows Nevada is synonymous with gambling. Why in the world would someone try something in Nevada? In my opinion, evildoers would be far better off rigging the Iona-Canisius game.

RoadDog · 12-02-11, 02:31 PM

lol thanks for all the sweet info, ace.

+Even · 12-02-11, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by somachino1

Thoughts?

Third in the nation in rebounding, averaging 83 points a game and only lost to Saint Louis who's ranked.

Nevada, 4-3, horrible offense and sure to get out-rebounded not a good combination. Played UNLV early on but nothing to write home about since.

I see Washington winning by about 15 but what do i know.

Thoughts?

My thoughts are that while they may have only lost to one team and it was on the road and Sain Louis is ranked, that doesnt mean jack squat. Who have they played and beaten outside of Saint Louis....and perhaps those stats you are sighting is a reflection of the competition? I could put together a group of friends and pile up sick stats on a junior high team and I have never played basketball.

+Even · 12-02-11, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by zephyr

Hammer Washington in this one. Nevada is down. Haven't got their footing since Fox left to Georgia. They've beat noone (Pacific and Bradley are not good this year, IMO; and Prairie View and Longwood ....). They are 253rd in the country in points scored per game (64.3) and 269th in field goal percentage (.404), and, other than UNLV, their schedule has not been much. The Huskies have some problems, but they are fast and athletic, they rebound very well, and they usually shoot pretty well from three. If Nevada is competitive in this one, my hat will be off to them. I don't see it.

This post is a classic example of how statistics are meaningless unless viewed in context. You went through all that trouble to point out how Nevada hasnt beaten anyone, and have played a bad schedule, as a reason why Washington is a good bet. But then inexplicably forget to look at or point out that Washington schedule has been this:

vs. Georgia St. 91-74W
vs. Fla. Atlantic 77-71W
vs. Portland 93-63W
@ Sain Louis 77-64L
vs. Houston Baptis 88-65W

When you compare that to Nevada's schedule I think you'll see that your point becomes useless. Gotta keep things in context

ctguy · 12-02-11, 04:25 PM

I just put a full max bet on Washington. Did I just make a mistake

zephyr · 12-02-11, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by +Even

This post is a classic example of how statistics are meaningless unless viewed in context. You went through all that trouble to point out how Nevada hasnt beaten anyone, and have played a bad schedule, as a reason why Washington is a good bet. But then inexplicably forget to look at or point out that Washington schedule has been this:

vs. Georgia St. 91-74W
vs. Fla. Atlantic 77-71W
vs. Portland 93-63W
@ Sain Louis 77-64L
vs. Houston Baptis 88-65W

When you compare that to Nevada's schedule I think you'll see that your point becomes useless. Gotta keep things in context

That's all fair enough. Washington's schedule has been weak, for sure. I suppose that when I see a WAC team against a PAC team, I figure that the difference between the progams, mostly with regard to $$$ and recruiting, is great enough, that, for the WAC team to be getting only a few baskets in the line, they must have shown something. Nevada hasn't. Washington will presumably have the better athletes on the floor in this one, they are hungry for some respect, Nevada's home court advantage is not all it's supposed to be, and I see no reason to believe that Washington will not win convincingly. But we'll see.

Warning: I've been colder than hell.

pacocn · 12-03-11, 12:40 AM

griz, good read, you are right i wasn't talking
about the noise level in Nevada

ManBearPig · 12-03-11, 02:28 AM

Well...I was wrong I'm eating crow and it feels good. Sure I'll have another....

ManBearPig · 12-03-11, 02:31 AM

Originally posted by grizzlies1

Haha when he said the games in Nevada I don't think he was talking about home court advantage!

oh right...because the game is in Nevada it's rigged...of course how could I be so lame. You all will never learn that this doesn't happen as often as you think. I just have to laugh when I read this.