College Hoops 2011-12

[alamo]

Hope you enjoyed the day away Biff. Good luck today. Will be with you.

[BiffTFinancial]

good luck today Biff. Any thoughts on NM/Air Force. I have been taking UNM and doing ok, but it looks like Air Force can keep the game close at home. I am thinking of taking AF first half, just wondering if this is a game you have or are going to look at?

i have not capped it, fly fisher, but took a look for a few minutes after seeing your question. i agree that AF has done a good job of keeping games tight at home, and their slow pace should help them do so again tonight. i do note that UNM got rolling in the 1H in its last two trips to AF. AF 1H has potential i think. BOL whatever you decide.

[BiffTFinancial]

Hope you enjoyed the day away Biff. Good luck today. Will be with you.

thanks, alamo. definitely good to clear my head and i was so busy that i honestly just didn't have much time, so was nice to take the day off. that said, can't wait for tonight.

[LockPickMaster]

any thoughts on MSU the line was -3.5 and now -1.5 on some books

[BiffTFinancial]

any thoughts on MSU the line was -3.5 and now -1.5 on some books

that game is a giant no-play for me (though i can't wait to watch). Sparty usually struggles in Champaign, and they have a big rivalry/revenge game on tap with UM. i don't care what the line movement says, no way would i back Illinois against Sparty as i think that Sparty is much better team, but line movement telling me no play. BOL whatever you decide.

[BiffTFinancial]

leans
Arky +2'
YSU +9
YSU/UWM over 127
Clemson/UVA over 110'

[No coincidences]

leans
Arky +2'
YSU +9
YSU/UWM over 127
Clemson/UVA over 110'

Any particular reason why Biff?

I just hammered the under 111.5 for 4U. I don't think this game sees more than 108.

[BiffTFinancial]

Any particular reason why Biff? I just hammered the under 111.5 for 4U. I don't think this game sees more than 108.

couple of things. from a very high level, i think that UVA gets 60+, so they'll have to hold Clemson to 50 or less to get the under. also, Clemson's pressure defense can result in a lot of fouls and FTs (though they've been better at controlling the fouls this season). also, i was very surprised by the early movement on the total. i opened just above the ken pom prediction of 107 and has risen steadily - i didn't expect that, which makes me think that there's something here to indicate an over that i'm simply missing (i know that the public is supposedly on the over, but honestly, how heavily was the public betting the over to cause it to rise 2 points overnight?). in the end, my impression of this game (without spending time to cap it) is that the line is probably about right and so we'll see a lot of FTs at the end to put the game over.

all that said, i wouldn't let my lean bother you much. after reading back through my reasoning, i'm clearly not all that confident in the over.

[BiffTFinancial]

leans Arky +2' YSU +9 YSU/UWM over 127 Clemson/UVA over 110'

having now spent time capping the game, scratch YSU +9 and Clemson/UVA over 110'

leans
Arky +2' and ML
YSU/UWM over 126'

would like to consider UNC/WF 1H under 71, but been having nightmares about UNC playing and scoring with two basketballs at a time since Sunday.

[No coincidences]

couple of things. from a very high level, i think that UVA gets 60+, so they'll have to hold Clemson to 50 or less to get the under. also, Clemson's pressure defense can result in a lot of fouls and FTs (though they've been better at controlling the fouls this season). also, i was very surprised by the early movement on the total. i opened just above the ken pom prediction of 107 and has risen steadily - i didn't expect that, which makes me think that there's something here to indicate an over that i'm simply missing (i know that the public is supposedly on the over, but honestly, how heavily was the public betting the over to cause it to rise 2 points overnight?). in the end, my impression of this game (without spending time to cap it) is that the line is probably about right and so we'll see a lot of FTs at the end to put the game over.

all that said, i wouldn't let my lean bother you much. after reading back through my reasoning, i'm clearly not all that confident in the over.

Not that BetOnline is overly reliable, but they do post the first lines of the day based on Glantz-Culver and the initial line did dip 1.5 points:

01/30 03:21 PM 107½ -110 107½ -110
01/30 11:19 AM 109 -110 109 -110

[BiffTFinancial]

Not that BetOnline is overly reliable, but they do post the first lines of the day based on Glantz-Culver and the initial line did dip 1.5 points: 01/30 03:21 PM 107½ -110 107½ -110 01/30 11:19 AM 109 -110 109 -110

hmmm, that is interesting, thank you for that. i always take note when the opener is significantly higher/lower than ken pom, particularly when it then moves further away.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

3* Arkansas +2' (-104)

Tuesday 1.31.2012
3* Kent State -5 (-105)
3* Wisconsin/Penn State over 111
3* Arkansas +2' (-104)

[BiffTFinancial]

really wanted to put a unit on Arky ML +130, but was unable to summon up the stones to do so.

[Madison]

Hey Biff,

Got some personal crap goin on and haven't been totally focused. Just took a quick look and was surprised Micn St/Ill was 130+. Did we miss an opp here?

[BiffTFinancial]

Hey Biff, Got some personal crap goin on and haven't been totally focused. Just took a quick look and was surprised Micn St/Ill was 130+. Did we miss an opp here?

clearly. both Big Ten games tonight have been real shitfests. hoping for triple OT in Happy Valley.

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Kent State -5 - WINNER

[alamo]

3* Kent State -5 - WINNER

Nice call on Kent Biff...

As for that other shit fest, there was as many points scored in the last 2mins as there was in the previous 38mins.

[alamo]

Arkansas win outright. Normal service resumed Biff with a winning night

[BiffTFinancial]

Nice call on Kent Biff... As for that other shit fest, there was as many points scored in the last 2mins as there was in the previous 38mins.

that game was a real affront to good taste and decency. 14 points before the first media time-out, 26 the next 16 minutes and 84 the rest of the game. bah.

[BiffTFinancial]

Arkansas win outright. Normal service resumed Biff with a winning night

woot! thanks, alamo.

[BiffTFinancial]

Tuesday 1.31.2012 final card
3* Kent State -5 (-105) - WINNER
3* Wisconsin/Penn State over 111 - LOSER
3* Arkansas +2' (-104) - WINNER

2-1 +2.7u on the night, 106-87-3 +32.73u season to date.

[BiffTFinancial]

Wednesday 2.1.2012
3* Xavier/GW over 132
3* Wichita State/Missouri State over 131'

[BiffTFinancial]

both Xavier/GW and Wichita St/Missouri St overs are keep-up games, and the only 4-10 point home dogs today without red flags. keep-up games were cold last week, but looked hard at both of these overs and like em.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

3* Michigan -3'

Wednesday 2.1.2012 updated card
3* Michigan -3'
3* Xavier/GW over 132
3* Wichita State/Missouri State over 131'

[Madison]

Tuesday 1.31.2012 final card 3* Kent State -5 (-105) - WINNER 3* Wisconsin/Penn State over 111 - LOSER 3* Arkansas +2' (-104) - WINNER 2-1 +2.7u on the night, 106-87-3 +32.73u season to date.

Swap out of Virg/Clem sure over for Wisky disaster or it's broom time. Kinda what I've been doing to much of lately.

[BiffTFinancial]

Swap out of Virg/Clem sure over for Wisky disaster or it's broom time. Kinda what I've been doing to much of lately.

yeah, no complaints from me to the gambling gods after a winning night, but was kicking myself for that Wisky/PSU over all night. got a good number and everything but it doesn't matter much when the better team goes 8 minutes without a field goal and there were almost not FTs in the 1H.

having hard time finding an under that i really like tonight. don't think i can pull the trigger on UGA/Auburn.

[ChipperDog]

Biff still like the x over even though the total is dropping?
What about uconn-gtown for a under? Uconns offense has been bad lately

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff still like the x over even though the total is dropping? What about uconn-gtown for a under? Uconns offense has been bad lately

i will admit that the XU/GW total dropping is bumming me out a little. i'm trying to tell myself it's because there's RLM on the dog. that said, whenever i don't beat the closer, i driving home from work starting to feel as if it's a loser. of course, last night, i beat the closer by 3 on the Wisky/PSU over and we all know how that ended up....

i would not even consider the UConn/Gtown under. the reason is that Calhoun is changing his line-up and wants to play a more up tempo pace. there are a number of articles out there on this the past day or two. now, it may not work the first game out against a deliberate offense like Gtown, but i don't want to be on the under in a UConn game until i can figure out how this style of play is going to pan out. in fact, i'll be looking to take UConn overs their next couple of games once i see how this change goes.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

3* Duquesne +4'

Wednesday 2.1.2012 updated card
3* Michigan -3'
3* Xavier/GW over 132
3* Duquesne +4'
3* Wichita State/Missouri State over 131'

[No coincidences]

Love Duquesne Biff.

[BiffTFinancial]

Love Duquesne Biff.

thanks, pal. the more i look at that game, the more i like it. i think that TJ McConnell is going to give Dillard some real problems, and Dayton has that trip to SLU on tap. BOL to you tonight, NC.

[No coincidences]

thanks, pal. the more i look at that game, the more i like it. i think that TJ McConnell is going to give Dillard some real problems, and Dayton has that trip to SLU on tap. BOL to you tonight, NC.

I'm thinking the same thing -- want to go big, but betting against Dayton in their house scares me a little. I think Duquesne is a better team overall.

[BiffTFinancial]

lean VCU 2H -5' and Duquesne 2H +4', but think i'm gonna pass. don't want to fade the Tribe while their NCAA tourney hopes are still alive.

[BiffTFinancial]

2* NC State/BC 2H under 71

[BiffTFinancial]

Wednesday 2.1.2012 final card
3* Michigan -3' - WINNER
3* Xavier/GW over 132 - LOSER
3* Duquesne +4' - WINNER
3* Wichita State/Missouri State over 131' - WINNER
2* NC State/BC 2H under 71 - WINNER

4-1 +7.7u, 110-88-3 +40.43u to date.