Dukebluejms 2010-2011 NCAAB thread

Dukebluejms · 11-15-10, 03:56 PM

My leans for tonight are:

1. Fairfield ML (+115) at Rutgers: This is not a play based on Rutgers loss to Princeton as many would think. I like Fairfield's toughness on the inside matched up against Rutgers lack of rebounding. Rutgers was outrebounded by Princeton, and have limited size and experience in the post. Fairfield returns 2 of its top 3 players while Rutgers lost many key pieces.

2. Alabama -20.5 (-110) vs. Rutgers. Bama lost its senior PG this year, but they return a great corps of bigs. Bama is a tough, defensive minded team that will overmatch Troy. Troy lost 5 seniors from last years team, and should struggle this season. I'm not in love with this play because of the high number, but its definitely a possibility. The one area of concern is Troy's depth of perimeter shooters and the large amount of 3's they take. If the 3's are falling early, Bama won't cover. On the other hand, Troy has no one to match up with Bama's size on the interior. I look for Bama to collect 15+ offensive rebounds.

3. Wofford +10.5 (-110) at Clemson: This is more me going with my gut than anything else. Wofford is very experienced (5 returning seniors and 2 juniors) and a smart team. They will look to keep the game in the high 50's, and they must to have a chance. Clemson is not the same "press-happy" and intense man-to-man they have been in the past under a new coach, but they still return a lot of key players. Clemson at home is always tough, but I just feel Wofford will keep it close. Clemson has some size inside, but Booker is inexperienced and Jerai Grant is not much of a scoring threat. The key in this game will be the play of Stitt and Smith on the perimeter for Clemson. If they can knock down shots, Clemson will win. I like the 10.5 number too. Clemson is a notoriously bad free throw shooting team and this year is starting out the same (25-46 from the line in their first game). Clemson will not be able to salt the game away at the line late.

Let me know what you think.

LTCOL27 · 11-15-10, 04:12 PM

Thanks for posting Dukebluejms. I remember that you were very solid last year, and it is good to see you back in action.

I really like the Bama and Wofford plays (just don't know enough about Fairfield to offer an opinion otherwise.) I believe that you are right on the money with your analysis for both games.

MadDog420 · 11-15-10, 04:32 PM

Good stuff, Duke.

I'm definitely going to be on Wofford. Wofford is a very talented team and you combine that with how poorly Clemson shoots free throws and I'm on it. I like to spend most of the beginning of the year just watching and getting a feel for teams. May make a 2H play here or there if I really have a feel for how the game is going. Wofford will probably be my only full game play tonight.

Thought on the Miami/Memphis game tonight? I lean early to Miami but will probably end up laying off and watching. I think Miami will jump out on them early, though. Let me know what you think about this one and if you'd like to discuss any others. GL

Dukebluejms · 11-15-10, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by MadDog420

Good stuff, Duke. I'm definitely going to be on Wofford. Wofford is a very talented team and you combine that with how poorly Clemson shoots free throws and I'm on it. I like to spend most of the beginning of the year just watching and getting a feel for teams. May make a 2H play here or there if I really have a feel for how the game is going. Wofford will probably be my only full game play tonight. Thought on the Miami/Memphis game tonight? I lean early to Miami but will probably end up laying off and watching. I think Miami will jump out on them early, though. Let me know what you think about this one and if you'd like to discuss any others. GL

I like Miami too. Memphis lost a lot from last year, I think they are a bit overrated. I'm not gonna play that one, but if I were I'd go with Miami ML.

Dukebluejms · 11-15-10, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by LTCOL27

Thanks for posting Dukebluejms. I remember that you were very solid last year, and it is good to see you back in action. I really like the Bama and Wofford plays (just don't know enough about Fairfield to offer an opinion otherwise.) I believe that you are right on the money with your analysis for both games.

Yeah, I'm thinking Fairfield may be a trap after Rutgers loss to Princeton. I'm laying off that one.

Dukebluejms · 11-15-10, 05:45 PM

Plays for tonight:

1. Wofford +11 (Glad I waited to get the extra half)
2. Alabama -20.5

Big Dave's Picks · 11-15-10, 06:06 PM

Hey Dukeblue good to see you back on here, its definitely been a long off season. BOL this year and i will continue to follow. I am also leaning Wofford but as well Pacific. BOL on the picks man and look forward to working together this year. Thanks Again, Big Dave

Dukebluejms · 11-15-10, 11:58 PM

Originally posted by Dukebluejms

Plays for tonight: 1. Wofford +11 (Glad I waited to get the extra half) 2. Alabama -20.5

1-1 (-.09 units) on the night. Sucks! Bama was up 28 with 3 to go culminating in a 3 point dagger to my heart with 12 seconds left. Thats why its gambling.

Dukebluejms · 11-16-10, 12:03 AM

Leans for tomorrow:

1. UGA -4.5
2. VT +6.5
3. Butler +1.5
4. Gonz -4.5
5. DePaul -7
6. UF -1.5

This is at first glance. These will change but these are the ones that stuck out as possibilities. Will cap as I watch the Canes beat Memphis.

Dukebluejms · 11-16-10, 02:11 PM

Picks for Tuesday 11/16

1. UF -3 vs. OSU: This is my top play for the day. UF is very underrated in my opinion. The Gators bring back almost their entire team from last year. They have it all. Great PG in Boynton, a multitude of long range threats in Walker and Parsons, and a strong front line with 6'10 Macklin, 6'8 Tyus, and 6'9 Parsons. I expect the Gators to outphysical the smaller Buckeyes. Tremendous home court advantage in Gainesville.

2. VT +7 @ KSU. VT brings back everyone from a team that showed flashes of greatness last year. While they are deep and experienced, they go as far as Malcolm Delaney will take them. Both teams play good defense, but VT's physicality will be the difference. Pullen and Delaney are a push, so the difference in this game will be the role players. Hudson and Allen are very capable players. If VT can rebound with K State they can win the game. I like the points in this situation.

3. UGA -5 vs. CU. Both teams bring back the majority of their teams from last year. CU has very long and athletic guards, while UGA lives in the paint. Game is being played in Athens and CU was 2-10 SU on the road last season. Too much size in the paint. Like UGA to cover.

Still leaning strong with Butler ML and Gonzaga -5.5.

Again, thoughts are appreciated.

Dukebluejms · 11-19-10, 04:52 PM

Took a few days off, but back for more. Poor start to the season (2-3 YTD -1.18 units), but I took the days off to start looking at matchups for today and the weekend. Already have a few games circled as definite plays for the weekend. .

My plays today:

1. Illinois -4.5: Illinois is very deep and have the inside guys to bang with Jordan Williams in the post. Illinois is the better shooting team, both from the free throw line and from behind the arc. Gary Williams will have his troops ready, but playing back-to-back game with limited depth will be the difference. Watch Jordan Williams. He'll be the key. He is prone to foul trouble, and and if he gets in early fout trouble this game gets ugly quick.

2. Pitt -5: This is an interesting game. Pitt has the size inside and wants to work methodically, while Texas has a multitude of guards who look to push and shoot jumpers. The team who can dictate their tempo will win this game. Playing on back-to-back nights, it is the run-and-gun teams that struggle. Texas has 3 guys averaging over 30 minutes per game, while Pitt has 8 guys playing double digit minutes. Not to mention Texas is coming off an OT game where only 7 guys had significant minutes. Tired legs is never good when taking jump shots. If the shots aren't falling for Texas, they have limited options inside. I look for a close game early with Pitt stretching it out in the second half when fatigue becomes a factor.

3. Under 156.5 Min/UNC: Line has already moved 3 points after opening at 153.5. Lines are sharp this time of the year, so this much movement in the other direction is always a plus. Both teams can score, but I don't think Minnesota can win an up-and-down game with the Tarholes. Carolina is deeper than Minn and more athletic. Carolina is definitely prone to giving up points, but look for Minn to slow the tempo. Hopefully Minn can pull the upset...

4. Portland +7: The public is drilling Kentucky right now and it is simply becuase of the names on the jerseys. Portland is a very capable team that can absolutely shoot lights out, especially at home. As a team, Portland is shooting over 50% from three, and over 80% from the line. Kentucky has reloaded as expected with a ton of athletes, but they are travelling cross country to play probably the biggest home game in Portland basketball history. The Wildcats are younger than last year and they aren't very deep. It will be interesting to see how Kentucky handles the pressure if Portland comes out hot. Portland is tough at home. Last year, Portland was a "giant-slayer" (comparatively) knocking off Oregon, a ranked Minnesota team, and UCLA. Now, I know Kentucky is a far superior team in terms of athletes, but still Portland knows how to play in big games. This is not a strong play, but more of a fade the public, gut play. It will be fun to watch.

BOL to all.

Dukebluejms · 11-22-10, 06:08 PM

Back at it tonight guys, I won't have time to post my analysis just gonna post my plays for the evening.

1. Clemson -3 (-110)
2. Duke -11 (-109)
3. TCU +3.5 (-103)
4. Xavier +3 (-105)

Dukebluejms · 11-26-10, 11:42 AM

I finally found my thread. I have been on a pretty good run as of late hitting 6 of 8 bringing me to 9-11 YTD -2.16 units. Back at it today.

Todays plays:

1. BC +7.5 (-105): BC brought back a lot of players from last year. They started off slowly this year getting upset by Yale, but they have been playing much better as of late. Wisc has yet to be really tested, and I like BC's inside/outside balance in this game. If BC gets to 60 they can win this game or definitely cover. Love this play.

2. VT -5 (-102): This is OK St's first real test of the season, and it will be tough for them to match VT's athleticism. As is always the case with VT, they need Delaney to play well and I think he will. Allen is another big player in this game. He has to play big inside and keep VT in the game by rebounding. Close game early, but VT pulls away late. VT shoot FT's well as a team.

3. W. Carolina -5.5 (-110): In a fast paced game, I like WC's offense a little bit more than Mercer's. WCU has played well in spots this season against better teams. WCU is more balanced than Mercer and have a 3-headed guard combo that can do havoc on Mercer's defense. WCU big in this one.

Dukebluejms · 11-26-10, 01:04 PM

Adding:

4. Villanova -5.5 (-105)
5. Wright St. +7 (-107)
6. UTEP -1.5 (-105)

Dukebluejms · 11-29-10, 07:06 PM

Picks for today:

1. UVA +13
2. TCU/USC under 128.5
3. N. Ill +6