no 1.5 line movements as of today,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,,,figures,,,,
,,,figures,,,,
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jolmscheid
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No wagering just watching and and analyzing,,,,,line movements,,,Comment -
yesterdays plays where opening line and closing line remained the same plays went 6-2,,,,,will monitor it todayComment -
Hmm...so basically Bob if the line moves 1.5+ points, you play ON the team that the line moved to or AGAINST that team???Comment -
so far yes as of yesterday it did not matter +1.5 or -1.5,, just reverse of RLM but no filters added # of bets,,standard RLM req,,,,,,,,,Comment -
Oh so you did ALL RLM of 1.5 points or more....for sides only??Comment -
You skipped the 1 point RLM?Comment -
-1 drops away from favorite was good as they went 5-2 in favor of dogComment -
i did all matchups after the fact,,,,,,,,,and these were the results per opening lines from sports insightsComment -
what i usually do is prior to start of first game i will update sports insights at that time and then hold till all games end and review final result,,Comment -
Gotcha....so Bob, do you PERSONALLY think long term that all RLM plays of 1.5 points+ is profitable?? No filters?Comment -
this is what i had
Fla open -4.5 closed 3.5,,,Fla lost,, RLM approach without filters
VCU,,,,,,,-3.5,,, closed - 2.5,,,Lost
Butler,,,,,--4 to -3,,,,,Lost
Mizz St - 16.5 to ,,,-,,15.5,,,WON against RLM
Ariz -8.5,,,to -7.5,,, won,,,against RLM,, no filters
Duke -11,,, to -10,,, Lost
Cal,,,,-15 to,,,,,,,-14,,,,LostComment -
i'm going to track them,,,,,,,with out filters to see
but 1.5 to the favorites opposite RLM and filters went 5-0,,,,Comment -
What about if a fav opens up at -2 and moves to -3.5 for example? Is betting on favs getting even more points against them profitable?Comment -
was last night,,
Louisville,,,,-21 to -22.5,,winner
Wiscy - 8 to -9.5,,,,,,,,winner
Arkansas -7 to -8.5 winner,,
BYU,,,,,,,-6 to -,,,7.5 Winner
Vandy -14 to,,,,,- 15.5,,,winnerComment -
add the only -1.5 to the dog
Lou tech,,, - 5 to -3.5,, true RLM play was opposition but lostComment -
doesnt morehead st qualifyComment -
those plays we just line movements,,,nothing to do with RLM,, RLM plays must go against the fav and,,dog gets more points but JP supposed to be in the majority on favorite,, thus RLM,,,Comment -
Do you think it is profitable to bet all 1.5 line movements, even the ones that are NOT RLM?Comment -
Morehead opened at -18 and now -19,, this is not RLM,,,,
also -1 point line moves where fav had a -1 point move went 2-3,,,,last night,,,,Comment -
well last night it sure was,, but i think we need to watch for a few days and see what transpires,,,,,,Comment -
Is there any way to HISTORICALLY see if ALL 1.5+ point linemoves would be profitable? I obviously know that a couple of days isn't enoughComment -
its tough to apply RLM to ncaab as to many games starting at all diff times,,and your supposed to watch till 5 min b4 game starts,,at least in football most teams start at same prescribed times,,,but i just try and apply it as best i can,,,,Comment -
But I am talking about ALL 1.5 point linemoves even if they are NOT RLM??Comment -
there are records but not sure how good in ncaab,,, i have a RLM posted in my NCAAF thread but back quite a ways in threadComment -
no because RLM is designed as RLM reverse line movement,,,Most wagers are on favorite and line moves away from favorite,,thus RLMComment -
example,,,,,,,,team A open line -5-5,,,,,,,,,at game time - 3.5,,,,,,,,,this is RLM,, then you add filters,,,Comment -
off to casino,, back in a bitComment -
found this and think its very informative
Reverse line movements lead to big profits
October 8, 2008 9:01 AM by LT Profits - 0 Comments
People often refer to “the smart money” when betting, but is there anyway to quantify this. Fortunately, the answer is yes, and tracking lines that move in the opposite direction of what team the higher percentage of bets are on is the key. Blindly following reverse line moves without doing any handicapping whatsoever has been profitable, so this just may be the new wave.
Every week, regardless of the sport, head-scratching upsets take place that have bettors cursing the heavens and crying foul while ripping up there tickets.
For example, how could the lowly Miami Dolphins of the NFL beat a San Diego Chargers team than many predicted to go to the Super Bowl outright? Or how could a terrible Michigan football team upset a Wisconsin club that was expected to challenge for the Big Ten title?
Well, both of these games had something in common that shrewd bettors could have used to their advantage, and that could have made these upsets both expected and profitable. Welcome to the world of reverse line movement.
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Reverse line movement takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. For example, in the two cases above, at least 75 percent of all bets were placed on the Chargers and Wisconsin respectively. Yet, the Chargers line dropped from an opener of -7 to a closing line of -5½, while Wisconsin fell from -6½ to -5. You all now know what transpired on the field on each occasion.
So what causes reverse line movement when the aim of most bookmakers is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors. You see, reverse movement takes when more money is bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money.
Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run.
To back this up, our friends over at Sports Insights have tracked the records for games where over 60 percent of the public has been on one side, yet there was reverse line movement of at least one full point from the opening number to the close at the top books in NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB. As you can see, this strategy has been profitable in every sport. Note that these records are for sides only and do not include totals.
At Least 60% of Bets on Side, Reverse Line Move of at least 1 point
League W L P Pct. Units
NFL 2008 18 13 1 58.1% 2.83
NFL 2007 155 130 9 54.4% 18.62
NCAAF 2008 137 106 8 56.4% 17.51
NCAAF 2007 227 156 4 59.3% 49.49
NBA 2007-8 221 182 6 54.8% 18.89
NCAAB 2007-8 272 203 11 57.3% 42,04
Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side, yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number to the close at the top books in MLB and NHL has also been profitable. Again, these records are for money lines only and do not include totals.
At Least 60% of Bets on Side, Reverse Money Line Move of at least 10 cents
Leagie W L P Pct. Units
MLB 2008 518 600 0 46.3% 131.98
NHL 2008-9 1 0 0 100% 0.95
NHL 2007-8 224 229 0 49.4% 85.69
Obviously, this approach produces a lot of underdog money line plays, as you can see by comparing the winning percentages in MLB and NHL with the units won. However, one cannot quibble with the results, and dare we say, this is an approach that makes money in the long run without doing any handicapping.Comment -
Good article Bob...may try that out. How bout you?Comment -
already did in ncaaf and NFL,,and did very well,, but still applying it in ncaabComment -
Do you use the same exact rules as the article? Or did you modify it at all?Comment -
,Results,,,,,,SYSTEM PLAYS on Thursday
0-5,,, Ariz St to cover,,only play today,,,,,,,,,,Loss moves to 0-6
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watch list
0-3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Oregon to cover,,,,,,,,,,
0-3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,NC Greensboro to cover,,,,,moves to 0-4
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picked up some level 3's from yesterdays plays
0-3,,,,,,,kent St
0-3,,,,,,,Murray St
3-0,,,,,,,Morehead
3-0,,,,,,,Samford
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