[veriableodds]

for the tourney only
basic #s for reasoning
flat wagering here wagering 0.12% of 1% per play

3/14
toledo/mich./U 163/model shows 154
s.miss/uab/U 155.5/ showing 145
yale/vanderbilt//U 147/ shows 135
e.wsh/wsh st/U 148/ prediction 140
hofstra/+6/better record
toledo/+6/better record
pitt/+2.5/ better record
e.wsh/+10.5/ better record

3/15
ucf/fl/U 143.5/ p 134
va/cncy/U 152/ p 141
uth/nm/U 162.5/ p 148
uc irv/ oregon/U 147.5/ p 137
fairleigh/+2.5 / better r
yngtwn st/+6 better r
sam houston st/+4.5 better r
uc irv/+9 / better r

3/16
oral roberts/duke/O 146/ p 152
n.kent/houston/ O 122/ p 127
maryland/+2.5
charleston/+5.5
louisiana lyf/+11

3/17
vcu/saint marys/ O 122.5/ p 128
fl atl/mem/U 153.5/ p 146
nc st/+5

3/18
usc upstate/indiana st/U 153.5/ p 145
n.ala/s. uth/U 165/ p 151

3/19
rice/dq/U 160.5/ p 146
wisc milw/stetson/ U160/ p 144
gl

[KVB]

Good Luck here veriable.

I will be checkin in.

[veriableodds]

yeah just fun for me nowadays
I should be able to check and update atleast for 2 weeks

[KVB]

I like that you're attacking the Totals like this.

Good stuff.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Careful with NIT totals. My model has all the NIT games going under too. In the past they have used different time and foul rules and I think that’s why the lines are higher than expected, but I haven’t been able to find specifics on what they’re doing this year. Guess we’ll know in a few hours.

GL!

[veriableodds]

5-3 with 20 more left
mabye add some later good till the 19th

[ChuckyTheGoat]

5-3 with 20 more left
mabye add some later good till the 19th

Nice start, Odds. Good thread.

I'd be careful playing the "Dog w/ better record." Not sure about that one.

[Otters27]

This guy knows his stuff

[veriableodds]

5-3 with 20 more left
mabye add some later good till the 19th

3/15

6-2 overall 11-5 (12 more left) still contemplating picks past the 19th

[ChuckyTheGoat]

3/15

6-2 overall 11-5 (12 more left) still contemplating picks past the 19th

Very impressive. Rooting for you.

Q: What do you set as your REASONABLE Target Win% over time?

[veriableodds]

great question without delving to deep or consuming much time.
A: there are so many angles/strategies=each wager has to be tallied in its place. (Examples of angles. value betting as in a favorite according to model shows they should be able to beat a line by more///same thing for an underdog, adherently same wagers but two different angles.
---bias dogs --- totals both o/u --- +ev only based off win% exmple team has 46% chance winning line is +125 that would mean that no matter what the outcome long term would be profitable..
People tend to focus on target% win to much when its really not about that
there are literally hundreds of angles that can be applied and can become a great source of passive income with some deep time dedication.

[veriableodds]

Nice start, Odds. Good thread.

I'd be careful playing the "Dog w/ better record." Not sure about that one.

yeah noticed that tend to stick with teams that have had success in past instead of just blindly

[ChuckyTheGoat]

great question without delving to deep or consuming much time.
A: there are so many angles/strategies=each wager has to be tallied in its place. (Examples of angles. value betting as in a favorite according to model shows they should be able to beat a line by more///same thing for an underdog, adherently same wagers but two different angles.
---bias dogs --- totals both o/u --- +ev only based off win% exmple team has 46% chance winning line is +125 that would mean that no matter what the outcome long term would be profitable..
People tend to focus on target% win to much when its really not about that
there are literally hundreds of angles that can be applied and can become a great source of passive income with some deep time dedication.

Thanks for the reply, V. And props to you.

I should have phrased the question a little differently. I was asking about Target Win% vs -110 (1.91) odds.

Of course, it's all about the ROI. Your example on +EV on the +125 is a good one.

Good Luck on your plays. May your EV ring true.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

What a terrible T/O by Virginia. Did the guy think the clock was shorter?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

What a terrible T/O by Virginia. Did the guy think the clock was shorter?

Ha-ha, Furman wins. UVA bad finish.

[veriableodds]

2-3 for the 16th 13-8 overall
7 plays left

dont think im going with anymore picks after 25 years of math(obsessed stats guy) it appears my love has gone away. will upate one last time

[KVB]

[veriableodds]

3-4 last7
16-12 total