Mr Sagarin runs the Sweet 16 100 million times to give us this:
SWEET 16 TOURNAMENT SIMULATION ODDS
Tournament was simulated 100 million times.
PREDICTOR WINS odds to 1
1 Duke 95.25 26566266 2.76
2 Syracuse 91.98 13713924 6.29
3 Kentucky 91.50 12757381 6.84
4 Kansas State 90.62 8819096 10.34
5 Ohio State 89.79 8568966 10.67
6 West Virginia 90.28 7822925 11.78
7 Baylor 88.39 4341568 22.03
8 Xavier-Ohio 87.55 2961759 32.76
9 Michigan State 86.14 2743942 35.44
10 Purdue 87.97 2735334 35.56
11 Tennessee 86.34 2455179 39.73
12 Washington 86.47 1908699 51.39
13 Butler 86.09 1691979 58.10
14 Northern Iowa 84.34 1290107 76.51
15 Saint Mary's-Cal. 85.16 1168824 84.56
16 Cornell 82.94 454051 219.24
======================================== ==========================
I assume he thinks Duke has the best chance to win this tourney. For those not familiar all you do is take the assigned "predictor" (bolded the top of that column) for any particular team and compare it to their opponent. For example Kentucky has a predictor of 91.50, their opponent Cornell has an 82.94 score. So according to his data Kentucky should win by 8.56 points. Since the spread is 8 the line in his judgement is about where it should be. That is for neutral court games, when one team is home I think he assigns 4 more points to that team for betting purposes.
Note - I do not endorse what he does, most certainly not as a final tool in finding games to play. However if you are relatively new and haven't got your own numbers/DB's and so on it can be used as a place to start. Before the lines even come out you can be given an idea where Sag thinks the line should be. If it's different I would advise go research the game yourself though before you make any plays. Look for injuries first then go from there but again I would strongly recommend that you do not use this exclusively as your base to bet games, just another tool for players to explore.
Tournament was simulated 100 million times.
PREDICTOR WINS odds to 1
1 Duke 95.25 26566266 2.76
2 Syracuse 91.98 13713924 6.29
3 Kentucky 91.50 12757381 6.84
4 Kansas State 90.62 8819096 10.34
5 Ohio State 89.79 8568966 10.67
6 West Virginia 90.28 7822925 11.78
7 Baylor 88.39 4341568 22.03
8 Xavier-Ohio 87.55 2961759 32.76
9 Michigan State 86.14 2743942 35.44
10 Purdue 87.97 2735334 35.56
11 Tennessee 86.34 2455179 39.73
12 Washington 86.47 1908699 51.39
13 Butler 86.09 1691979 58.10
14 Northern Iowa 84.34 1290107 76.51
15 Saint Mary's-Cal. 85.16 1168824 84.56
16 Cornell 82.94 454051 219.24
======================================== ==========================
I assume he thinks Duke has the best chance to win this tourney. For those not familiar all you do is take the assigned "predictor" (bolded the top of that column) for any particular team and compare it to their opponent. For example Kentucky has a predictor of 91.50, their opponent Cornell has an 82.94 score. So according to his data Kentucky should win by 8.56 points. Since the spread is 8 the line in his judgement is about where it should be. That is for neutral court games, when one team is home I think he assigns 4 more points to that team for betting purposes.
Note - I do not endorse what he does, most certainly not as a final tool in finding games to play. However if you are relatively new and haven't got your own numbers/DB's and so on it can be used as a place to start. Before the lines even come out you can be given an idea where Sag thinks the line should be. If it's different I would advise go research the game yourself though before you make any plays. Look for injuries first then go from there but again I would strongly recommend that you do not use this exclusively as your base to bet games, just another tool for players to explore.
