Northern Iowa/Kansas Talk

[iceminers26]

Northern Iowa/Kansas

5:40 PM ET Tip

I would like to get everyone's opinions on this match-up.

ATS

Here's what I'm thinking, line opened up at 11.5 but now down to 11 at the two most respected books I trust as far as line movement, Pinnacle and TheGreek, even though a little more of the percentages are on Kansas.

ML

The ML opened at +671 but is down to +638 at Pinny and +550 at TheGreek, in addition it is evenly lower at 5Dimes, +550.

Total

The total opened up at 127 but is down to 126.5 at almost every shop even though again a little more of the percentages are on the over.


As far as just basing this game on line movements in regard to percentages, the plays IMO are Northern Iowa ATS and ML and the under, would break it down as followed using a total of 10 units invested in this game:

Hypothetical Plays (using 10 units total invested)

Northern Iowa +11.5, +11 6U

Northern Iowa Under 126.5 3U

Northern Iowa ML +550 to +630 1U

I'm on these but not for these unit sizes, just wanted to use a total of 10 units invested to break down the percentages of the 10U I would use on each play.

What's everyone's take on this one, do you think the Jayhawks go down today?

Appreciate the feedback.

ICE

[Cubs4591]

Go uni!!

[Rick22]

I kind of liked NI to begin with - thanks for the info Ice.

[iceminers26]

I kind of liked NI to begin with - thanks for the info Ice.

I'm just very interested in the line movements, more on the side than the total, but both none the less. Plus its coming from the 2 books I respect the most as far as line moves, Pinny and TheGreek. In addition, Northern Iowa plays the type of game that could take any team out of their comfort zone with their slow it down approach and take it within 10 on the shot clock on almost every possession. Also, I just have that feeling that the Jayhawks go down today, don't know what it is, but feel they fall today.

[2daBank]

mourning ice, for the spread i just hit Bodog up there square asses at n.iowa +12

this game a little scary as i believe ku could overwhelm these guys but N.iowa is to experienced, to well coached, and i believe can control the tempo of this game (which no doubt they have to for us to win)....Eckleseeder (cant spell names sorry) looks like he playing with a chip on his shoulder, Aldrich could have his hands full today.....im not buying the ml as i feel Collins is to good to let his team lose but certainly think it could be close....i took under as well and to be honest not sure if its a great idea as might be better off just taking N.Iowa for more as id think these bets go hand in hand it stays under we cover it goes over our chances of a cover drop some but honestly dont think we see a under and N. Iowa not covering

[iceminers26]

mourning ice, for the spread i just hit Bodog up there square asses at n.iowa +12 this game a little scary as i believe ku could overwhelm these guys but N.iowa is to experienced, to well coached, and i believe can control the tempo of this game (which no doubt they have to for us to win)....Eckleseeder (cant spell names sorry) looks like he playing with a chip on his shoulder, Aldrich could have his hands full today.....im not buying the ml as i feel Collins is to good to let his team lose but certainly think it could be close....i took under as well and to be honest not sure if its a great idea as might be better off just taking N.Iowa for more as id think these bets go hand in hand it stays under we cover it goes over our chances of a cover drop some but honestly dont think we see a under and N. Iowa not covering

Good morning buddy, hope you had a good night.

Thanks for the feedback and I too agree that the 2 plays, NI plus the points and the under go hand in hand. I think the strongest play in this game is NI plus the points and as you stated, it may be better to just add units to that play and lay off the others. I just posted the line movements for all 3, ATS, ML, and Total, because I found them all very interesting. Aside from the movements, I think this NI team could frustrate a team like Kansas with their slow it down approach, the ? lies will they be able to be effective enough on the offensive end to pull this one off in the end? Not sure, but definitely feel catching double digits is a solid play in this one.

Good luck today buddy.

[Lou-Hoozer]

Kansas will win this one BIG

[Patrickz0rs]

It's gonna be very hard for them to win by DD. I'm locking in at +11.5

[iceminers26]

Kansas will win this one BIG

This is a discussion thread on the game, thanks for providing such great reasoning behind your play.

[2daBank]

Kansas will win this one BIG

fuk with knowledge like this i may have to back off my original bet.....thanks for the valuable information, now that i know you like ku "BIG" think i better take them as well

[luclongley]

i personally think this is a 15-17 point win for kansas. aldrich is going to negate any interior play northern iowa is thinking of accomplishing, so bombs away from 3. they could get hot, but kansas has really good perimeter defenders. also, i like the over. the 3 solid teams NI played (siena, ODU, unlv) all put up low to mid 60s in points, youd have to think kansas can put up at least 70

[Renojaguar]

N Iowa will apply defense because they know they can't out shoot them. This game will either slow down dramtically or casue the Jayhawks to make inconsistant shots keeping the Panthers closer than you think

[SargeantHooker]

Morning to all & best of luck today. I didn't do this research myself (saw it in another thread) but Capri put out that double didgit favorites in the second round are on a run of 23-0 ATS. I generally feel that trends are made to be broken, just something to consider. Probably a pass for me, but good luck to those who play it.

[2daBank]

Morning to all & best of luck today. I didn't do this research myself (saw it in another thread) but Capri put out that double didgit favorites in the second round are on a run of 23-0 ATS. I generally feel that trends are made to be broken, just something to consider. Probably a pass for me, but good luck to those who play it.

think its actually 23-0 su, 17-6 ats, still scary

[SargeantHooker]

think its actually 23-0 su, 17-6 ats, still scary

You're right, just read it again & was coming back to fix it. Sorry guys, a little hungover this morning/afternoon

[tylerguy02]

I have a really hard time taking favorites during the tourney. The only DD favorite I took was Ohio St. -17 (bh) and it ended pushing. Either Northern Iowa wins or Kansas blows them out, it's kinda hard to call.

[Lou-Hoozer]

This is a discussion thread on the game, thanks for providing such great reasoning behind your play.

Your welcome broski!

[Lou-Hoozer]

fuk with knowledge like this i may have to back off my original bet.....thanks for the valuable information, now that i know you like ku "BIG" think i better take them as well

For sure homey.... take it to da bank!!!

[Wolf40]

[COLOR=#000000! important]I know this:
1.) some great cappers in here like N. Iowa
2.) the line movements lean towards N. Iowa
3.)alot of dummies and public don't think Kansas can be contained by N. Iowa
4.) Kansas looksed like shit against Lehigh
5.) based on chargers research alot of smart people think N.Iowa can win

I SURE AS SHIT WON'T BE ON KANSAS'S SIDE!!!![/COLOR]

[anjaru]

N. Iowa has some really good players and can compete with just about any team. Will they win? Most likely not. I see them down by 13 points with 5 mins remaining, then N. Iowa making a run to cover the spread. Kansas has some issues with going for the throat of their opponents. My money is on N. Iowa + points.

[iceminers26]

Northern Iowa

[2daBank]

[50cent]

wow what a game...

[2daBank]

nice call with the ml ice, i didnt have the balls for that......im happy though

[iceminers26]

great game, glad one of these big dogs finally closed the deal against one of the big boys

can't believe Kansas only lead 47 seconds the entire game

[antifoil]

so lets say they play again in a few days. what do you think the line would be?