#10 UF +5 vs. #7 BYU
The first real game of March Madness is finally among us, and for me it couldn’t have come soon enough. This first game brings a very interesting matchup between a UF team from a power conference against a BYU team that has something to prove. In my mind, BYU is underseeded because of their loss to UNLV in the conference tourney. That game was played in Las Vegas so I don’t consider it a bad loss. I haven’t heard many people pick UF in this game, but no game is as easy as it seemed so I dug deeper to see why everyone is on BYU. Even though people may not know why they like BYU, what I found is evidence enough for me to take the chalk here. Now most people will look at stats for each team that can be found anywhere, I usually use Covers. If you do, you see a BYU team that can score and shoot, and a UF team that rebounds and shoots a ton of 3’s. By looking a season stats this looks like a mismatch, but UF does play in a deeper conference with more competitive teams. I won’t insult anyone’s intelligence by going over easily found stats and trends.
For most of my analysis I used data from Pomeroy rankings. I first analyzed the tempos of the first two teams. The Gators are ranked 257th in tempo while BYU is ranked 12th. From there I took each team separately. For the Gators, I looked at games in which they played teams that have a top 100 tempo rank, or teams that will play a similar style as BYU (UF played 15 such games). For BYU, I looked at opponents that played a similar style as UF, or teams that ranked 200+ in tempo. I proceeded to break down each schedule by the strengths of the other team (i.e. BYU is a great 3 point shooting team so I looked at games were UF played great 3 point shooting teams.) So, for games in which the gators played up-tempo teams they were 8-7 SU, but 6-8 ATS. One common theme that I first saw was that in each game UF won, the most points they allowed was 70, but every other game was in the 60’s or lower. Thus, UF cannot necessarily play with uptempo teams, but the only way for them to win is to force these teams to play their pace. Next, I looked at the teams (of the 15 up-tempo opponents) that were ranked in the top 50 in effective field goal percentage because BYU is ranked 11th in the nation. Effective FG% is different than the normal measure because 3 point field goals are weighted more heavily, as they are in games. There were 6 of these games on their schedule (top 100 tempo and top 50 eff. Fg%). In these games (Syracuse, Kentucky twice, Vandy twice, and Ole Miss), the Gators were 1-5 SU and 2-3 ATS. So we now know that while UF won some games against fast paced teams, their victories came against the run and gun teams and they struggled with efficient teams. I next looked at games of the original 15 opponents that had balanced offenses. Pomeroy ranks teams based on point distribution, so for this measure of balance it was more judgment but I use teams that were in the 125-180 range for both 2pt and 3 pt field goals. There were 5 such games where UF played a top 100 tempo team with a balanced offense and they were 2-3 SU and ATS (Vandy twice, South Carolina twice, Arkansas). I think this speaks to the lack of depth of UF and the inexperience of their backcourt. UF is a solid defensive team (top 75 defensive efficiency), but they can only contain one part of the game at a time. The next group of games were games where UF played a top 100 tempo team that ranked in the top 100 in offensive efficiency. There were 10 such games and the Gators were 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS. BYU ranks 10th in offensive efficiency. The last group were games against top 100 tempo teams that shoot were also a great 3 point shooting teams (top 75 nationally). There were 4 such games in which this occurred and the Gators were 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS (Syr, Ga Southern, Vandy twice). BYU is the 2nd best three point shooting team in the country.
Now if one didn’t look deep into the schedule, this may still be nonsensical. I looked at recent performance for Florida. The Gators have lost 4 of 5, and the way they lost is alarming. Here is the breakdown of their last 4 losses:
1. MSST: UF allowed MSST to shoot 57% from the field, 50% from 3pt, 10 3PM!
2. @UK: UF allowed UK to shoot 47% from the field, 44% from 3pt, 8 3PM!
3. Vandy: UF allowed Vandy to shoot 43% from the field, 50% from 3pt, 10 3PM!
4. @UGA: UF allowed 43% from the field, a better 34% from 3pt but still 7 3PM!
Now, if teams like MSST and UK who are not known as great 3 point shooting teams are shooting that well from the perimeter, just imagine what Jimmer Fredette and company will do to this perimeter defense. A few more weaknesses I found for UF were that they play only 8 guys, but 6 play the majority of the minutes. They have little to no NCAA tourney experience. Only one player on the roster has NCAA experience, but he plays only 8 mpg. Also, UF struggles in games where the opponent is led by one star guard like Fredette. UF lost to Richmond (Anderson), UK twice (Wall), Xavier (Crawford), Scar (Downey). The major advantage for UF is Billy Donovan. Donovan has won 2 NCAA championships and has major success in this tourney. He will have his team ready to play. UF also has the size advantage inside as well.
While this should have been convincing enough, I decided to look at BYU to see how they fared against UF-style opponents. When breaking down their schedule I found that BYU played 14 such opponents this season. In these games BYU was 13-1 SU and 9-5 ATS. Now, UF did not have as many major advantages so there are not as many groups for BYU. The first group is slower paced teams (200+ tempo rank) that have a top 100 defensive efficiency ranking. BYU played 7 such games and were 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS. The next group were slower paced teams that had a top 100 offensive efficiency ranking. BYU played 4 such games and were 3-1 SU and ATS. One troubling stat that I found is that BYU has yet to play a slower paced team that is also a great offensive rebounding team, which UF is.
While BYU has a better resume than UF in this analysis, BYU does still have disadvantages, the major one being their lack of size. They do have one guy at 6’11, but after that they have one 6’9 and one 6’8, the rest are guards, but they are deeper and play 10 guys. BYU is the best FT shooting team in the country, which is always a plus come March. And while BYU has experience in the tourney, they do not have positive experience. BYU is 0-5 in their last 5 NCAA tourney games. I also broke down BYU’s losses this season and this is what I found (I looked at stats that could be beneficial to the Gators’ strengths):
1. @UTST: BYU was outrebounded, they only shot 39% from the field and 33% from deep, and they shot 11 less FTs.
2. @NM: Shot 13 less FTs, shot 38% from the field, -5 offensive rebound margin
3. @UNLV: Shot 38% from the field, -6 rebound margin, allowed 53% from the field and 3pt
4. NM: Allowed 50% from the field and 44% from 3pt, -9 rebound margin
5. @UNLV: Allowed 56% from the field and 42% from 3pt.
BYU has struggled with their defense at times, which could hurt them in this game. But if you look, all 5 of their losses this season were to ncaa tournament teams and 4 were on the road.
Each team has their strengths and weaknesses, but in my opinion BYU’s strengths are more superior. BYU should be able to get open looks from three, and as long as they shoot like they are capable they should win this game and cover the 5 points. However, if you disagree and feel UF will win, then you should also consider the under as well. Because as I stated earlier, when UF plays up-tempo teams and win they get these teams to play at their pace. My play BYU -5.
The first real game of March Madness is finally among us, and for me it couldn’t have come soon enough. This first game brings a very interesting matchup between a UF team from a power conference against a BYU team that has something to prove. In my mind, BYU is underseeded because of their loss to UNLV in the conference tourney. That game was played in Las Vegas so I don’t consider it a bad loss. I haven’t heard many people pick UF in this game, but no game is as easy as it seemed so I dug deeper to see why everyone is on BYU. Even though people may not know why they like BYU, what I found is evidence enough for me to take the chalk here. Now most people will look at stats for each team that can be found anywhere, I usually use Covers. If you do, you see a BYU team that can score and shoot, and a UF team that rebounds and shoots a ton of 3’s. By looking a season stats this looks like a mismatch, but UF does play in a deeper conference with more competitive teams. I won’t insult anyone’s intelligence by going over easily found stats and trends.
For most of my analysis I used data from Pomeroy rankings. I first analyzed the tempos of the first two teams. The Gators are ranked 257th in tempo while BYU is ranked 12th. From there I took each team separately. For the Gators, I looked at games in which they played teams that have a top 100 tempo rank, or teams that will play a similar style as BYU (UF played 15 such games). For BYU, I looked at opponents that played a similar style as UF, or teams that ranked 200+ in tempo. I proceeded to break down each schedule by the strengths of the other team (i.e. BYU is a great 3 point shooting team so I looked at games were UF played great 3 point shooting teams.) So, for games in which the gators played up-tempo teams they were 8-7 SU, but 6-8 ATS. One common theme that I first saw was that in each game UF won, the most points they allowed was 70, but every other game was in the 60’s or lower. Thus, UF cannot necessarily play with uptempo teams, but the only way for them to win is to force these teams to play their pace. Next, I looked at the teams (of the 15 up-tempo opponents) that were ranked in the top 50 in effective field goal percentage because BYU is ranked 11th in the nation. Effective FG% is different than the normal measure because 3 point field goals are weighted more heavily, as they are in games. There were 6 of these games on their schedule (top 100 tempo and top 50 eff. Fg%). In these games (Syracuse, Kentucky twice, Vandy twice, and Ole Miss), the Gators were 1-5 SU and 2-3 ATS. So we now know that while UF won some games against fast paced teams, their victories came against the run and gun teams and they struggled with efficient teams. I next looked at games of the original 15 opponents that had balanced offenses. Pomeroy ranks teams based on point distribution, so for this measure of balance it was more judgment but I use teams that were in the 125-180 range for both 2pt and 3 pt field goals. There were 5 such games where UF played a top 100 tempo team with a balanced offense and they were 2-3 SU and ATS (Vandy twice, South Carolina twice, Arkansas). I think this speaks to the lack of depth of UF and the inexperience of their backcourt. UF is a solid defensive team (top 75 defensive efficiency), but they can only contain one part of the game at a time. The next group of games were games where UF played a top 100 tempo team that ranked in the top 100 in offensive efficiency. There were 10 such games and the Gators were 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS. BYU ranks 10th in offensive efficiency. The last group were games against top 100 tempo teams that shoot were also a great 3 point shooting teams (top 75 nationally). There were 4 such games in which this occurred and the Gators were 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS (Syr, Ga Southern, Vandy twice). BYU is the 2nd best three point shooting team in the country.
Now if one didn’t look deep into the schedule, this may still be nonsensical. I looked at recent performance for Florida. The Gators have lost 4 of 5, and the way they lost is alarming. Here is the breakdown of their last 4 losses:
1. MSST: UF allowed MSST to shoot 57% from the field, 50% from 3pt, 10 3PM!
2. @UK: UF allowed UK to shoot 47% from the field, 44% from 3pt, 8 3PM!
3. Vandy: UF allowed Vandy to shoot 43% from the field, 50% from 3pt, 10 3PM!
4. @UGA: UF allowed 43% from the field, a better 34% from 3pt but still 7 3PM!
Now, if teams like MSST and UK who are not known as great 3 point shooting teams are shooting that well from the perimeter, just imagine what Jimmer Fredette and company will do to this perimeter defense. A few more weaknesses I found for UF were that they play only 8 guys, but 6 play the majority of the minutes. They have little to no NCAA tourney experience. Only one player on the roster has NCAA experience, but he plays only 8 mpg. Also, UF struggles in games where the opponent is led by one star guard like Fredette. UF lost to Richmond (Anderson), UK twice (Wall), Xavier (Crawford), Scar (Downey). The major advantage for UF is Billy Donovan. Donovan has won 2 NCAA championships and has major success in this tourney. He will have his team ready to play. UF also has the size advantage inside as well.
While this should have been convincing enough, I decided to look at BYU to see how they fared against UF-style opponents. When breaking down their schedule I found that BYU played 14 such opponents this season. In these games BYU was 13-1 SU and 9-5 ATS. Now, UF did not have as many major advantages so there are not as many groups for BYU. The first group is slower paced teams (200+ tempo rank) that have a top 100 defensive efficiency ranking. BYU played 7 such games and were 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS. The next group were slower paced teams that had a top 100 offensive efficiency ranking. BYU played 4 such games and were 3-1 SU and ATS. One troubling stat that I found is that BYU has yet to play a slower paced team that is also a great offensive rebounding team, which UF is.
While BYU has a better resume than UF in this analysis, BYU does still have disadvantages, the major one being their lack of size. They do have one guy at 6’11, but after that they have one 6’9 and one 6’8, the rest are guards, but they are deeper and play 10 guys. BYU is the best FT shooting team in the country, which is always a plus come March. And while BYU has experience in the tourney, they do not have positive experience. BYU is 0-5 in their last 5 NCAA tourney games. I also broke down BYU’s losses this season and this is what I found (I looked at stats that could be beneficial to the Gators’ strengths):
1. @UTST: BYU was outrebounded, they only shot 39% from the field and 33% from deep, and they shot 11 less FTs.
2. @NM: Shot 13 less FTs, shot 38% from the field, -5 offensive rebound margin
3. @UNLV: Shot 38% from the field, -6 rebound margin, allowed 53% from the field and 3pt
4. NM: Allowed 50% from the field and 44% from 3pt, -9 rebound margin
5. @UNLV: Allowed 56% from the field and 42% from 3pt.
BYU has struggled with their defense at times, which could hurt them in this game. But if you look, all 5 of their losses this season were to ncaa tournament teams and 4 were on the road.
Each team has their strengths and weaknesses, but in my opinion BYU’s strengths are more superior. BYU should be able to get open looks from three, and as long as they shoot like they are capable they should win this game and cover the 5 points. However, if you disagree and feel UF will win, then you should also consider the under as well. Because as I stated earlier, when UF plays up-tempo teams and win they get these teams to play at their pace. My play BYU -5.
But while I love BYU, I just know Donovan is gonna have them ready to play, which is why I didn't go crazy on BYU.
