Let's See How This Works Out- Melia's Picks For Wednesday

melia26 · 03-25-10, 02:45 AM

Also, in the first round, Temple was -175 ML as 4.5 fave against Cornell, while K St is -200 and WVa is -220, both as 4.5 faves. This could be interesting to chart.

melia26 · 03-25-10, 02:47 AM

I never thought Kansas would lose. Then again, I wouldn't put staying single on the line for any reason, Profit!

THE PROFIT · 03-25-10, 02:48 AM

With W.VA's big guy out, Washington ML has value IMO.

I just ran my ultra secret formula on the total for W.VA & came up with 133, the line is 142. The public has bet it down some so that is the public trend, which is a good sign. Only bad when its way lop sided, like 85/15

You may say fuk my formula, but the only one it was off by more than 3 points on todays lines was Princeton/St.Louis. I had 116, line was 106. Went out at 128

melia26 · 03-25-10, 02:49 AM

Do you guys look at this enough to know if there is a standard increment for .5 moves in moneylines? Like 15, 30 or so, or does it depend on offshore/local bookmakers?

melia26 · 03-25-10, 02:50 AM

I heart ultra secret stuff, so I'll throw a little on it!

THE PROFIT · 03-25-10, 02:51 AM

Originally posted by melia26

Also, in the first round, Temple was -175 ML as 4.5 fave against Cornell, while K St is -200 and WVa is -220, both as 4.5 faves. This could be interesting to chart.

That's just because the odds of them actually losing was great. If they didnt make it that big no one would take the dog ML & they would take a bath on that game. I'm positive UK will win, but I'm not taking -950 odds on it. -465-500 I will do.

2 other teams with that same spread of -8.5 would probably have a ML -350 where UK has -450 and up

melia26 · 03-25-10, 02:54 AM

My book started Kentucky at -9.5, -550. Offshore had it -9, -550 to start. Currently offshore it is -8.5, -465. Same with Syracuse, my book had it -7, -310 to start. Offshore had it -6.5, -310. Currently offshore it is -6, -275.

HoulihansTX · 03-25-10, 02:54 AM

Originally posted by melia26

Also, in the first round, Temple was -175 ML as 4.5 fave against Cornell, while K St is -200 and WVa is -220, both as 4.5 faves. This could be interesting to chart.

All ML open at the same number, but close at different #'s b/c of action received at the book.

THE PROFIT · 03-25-10, 02:55 AM

Originally posted by melia26

Do you guys look at this enough to know if there is a standard increment for .5 moves in moneylines? Like 15, 30 or so, or does it depend on offshore/local bookmakers?

you have to find your value in the ML. Look at it this way. Say a 3pt fav vs betting it ML. What would the price be to but 3 points? Get it? Then you can see if the ML is a value

Basically, they;re just saying this -9 team is way less likely to lose SU than this -9 team with those ML's dear. No big conspiracy or great angles to be had. Nothing like my top-secret briefcase full of totals

THE PROFIT · 03-25-10, 02:56 AM

I'm feelin a great teaser day for some points.

suckerforparlays · 03-25-10, 02:57 AM

Ultra secret forumula hahaha.

But anyways im still gonna back West Virginia I dont have any moeny on the game but WVU is still the better team IMO people are putting way to much emphais into Bryant

melia26 · 03-25-10, 02:58 AM

Looking at the current odds, I see 3 teams at -4.5. K St, Baylor, and Ohio St. K St ML is -215, which is highest and kind of reassures my straight bet on it. Ohio St is -205 and Baylor is -200. Does that mean Baylor is possible to look at for the best upset opportunity? Because I leaned St. Mary's for Friday.

suckerforparlays · 03-25-10, 02:58 AM

Im watching shes outta my league right now its a pretty good movie so far lol im only 10 minutes in though hahaha

THE PROFIT · 03-25-10, 02:58 AM

Here's what happened on the Appy St postponement

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By Jagdip Dhillon
Record Staff Writer
March 24, 2010 12:00 AM

A snowy day in Colorado helped the Pacific men's basketball team get a reprieve during its hectic travel schedule.
The Tigers were supposed to board a flight on Tuesday from Denver for a game today against Appalachian State in Boone, N.C., in the semifinals of the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament.
But snow flurries at Denver International Airport grounded the Tigers, so instead of trekking more than 1,200 miles to their destination, the team spent Tuesday in Greeley, Colo., and hopes to fly out today.
The Tigers (22-11) now are scheduled to play the Mountaineers (24-12) at 5 p.m. Thursday at the Holmes Convocation Center, rather than 4 p.m. today.
Coach Bob Thomason hopes the weather will cooperate, but forecasts call for a 70 percent chance of precipitation and freezing temperatures until midday today. Thomason said the extra day between games should help in terms of rest and preparation, but waiting around Tuesday was difficult.
"The toughest part was not knowing what's going on," he said. "Travel itself can become very tiring. But we just want to get back there and play."
The Tigers spent much of Tuesday on a bus or sitting at the airport. After their 63-59 victory on Monday at Northern Colorado in the quarterfinals of the CIT, the Tigers spent the night in Greeley and held a light workout there on Tuesday afternoon, while the university made travel arrangements.
Appalachian State is located in Boone, N.C., a city of about 13,000 in the Blue Ridge Mountains, which took its name from famous pioneer and explorer Daniel Boone. The school's football program won three consecutive NCAA I-AA titles from 2005-07 and famously upset Michigan in September 2007.
Appalachian State earned its berth in the semifinals with an 80-72 victory over Marshall. Pacific has played five consecutive games away from Spanos Center since Feb. 27.
"They're better than the teams we've played so far, so we'll have to be on top of our game," Thomason said. "We're not nervous about being on the road, we just have to play good basketball."

suckerforparlays · 03-25-10, 02:59 AM

Originally posted by melia26

Looking at the current odds, I see 3 teams at -4.5. K St, Baylor, and Ohio St. K St ML is -215, which is highest and kind of reassures my straight bet on it. Ohio St is -205 and Baylor is -200. Does that mean Baylor is possible to look at for the best upset opportunity? Because I leaned St. Mary's for Friday.

I wont be suprised if Saint Marys wins that game. Those kids are sharpshooters from behind the arc and im sure they have been shooting lights out at practice getting ready for the game. Thats the reason im not playing that game. I need Baylor to win the Region for my future but im not laying money on Baylor to beat St.Marys wont be suprised at all if Saint Marys wins

melia26 · 03-25-10, 03:01 AM

I'm not a line shopper! I'm usually a girl running late for work and has to put her bet in at the nearest place on the way! So I probably get screwed. But I love looking for angles, it's part of my nature.

HoulihansTX · 03-25-10, 03:01 AM

Originally posted by melia26

Looking at the current odds, I see 3 teams at -4.5. K St, Baylor, and Ohio St. K St ML is -215, which is highest and kind of reassures my straight bet on it. Ohio St is -205 and Baylor is -200. Does that mean Baylor is possible to look at for the best upset opportunity? Because I leaned St. Mary's for Friday.

Baylor opened at -3.5, so the ML has a ways to go B4 hitting its plateau of -220. -220 is the opening ML for a -4.5 spread in CBB. So actually Baylor ML offers the most value as the ML is 20 cents off.

THE PROFIT · 03-25-10, 03:02 AM

Originally posted by suckerforparlays

Ultra secret forumula hahaha.

But anyways im still gonna back West Virginia I dont have any moeny on the game but WVU is still the better team IMO people are putting way to much emphais into Bryant

Tim actually has that game right on the number, 141-142. I just run some different averages to make me feel better, but never go against his if his are way off & mine are spot on.

His big number that's off is AppySt. I'm poundin it under 132. Those Pacific boys are gonna be tired as hell, they dont score much to begin with. And those west coast boys are gonna be outta breath the 2H here in the mountains. Thinkin' about goin to that game. I only live 30-40 minutes from campus

melia26 · 03-25-10, 03:04 AM

I watched the Blind Side last night, I enjoyed it. Sandra Bullock was very convincing in her role and deserved all the accolades.

suckerforparlays · 03-25-10, 03:05 AM

Originally posted by melia26

I watched the Blind Side last night, I enjoyed it. Sandra Bullock was very convincing in her role and deserved all the accolades.

Its movie night!

THE PROFIT · 03-25-10, 03:06 AM

Originally posted by melia26

I'm not a line shopper! I'm usually a girl running late for work and has to put her bet in at the nearest place on the way! So I probably get screwed. But I love looking for angles, it's part of my nature.

I didn't know looking for angles was an inherent trait! That must make you an angle-saxon

THE PROFIT · 03-25-10, 03:07 AM

Her husband hated it so he had an affair with a carnival whore

melia26 · 03-25-10, 03:08 AM

Why do you feel so strong about Kentucky, Profit? They beat East Tenn St and Wake Forest. Oooooh, those Wildcats are so scary! I have a feeling Cornell comes to play, I may take them 1st half. Wake Forest even got out to 10-0 lead before Ky woke up, so maybe they can be had for a few.

suckerforparlays · 03-25-10, 03:09 AM

Originally posted by melia26

Why do you feel so strong about Kentucky, Profit? They beat East Tenn St and Wake Forest. Oooooh, those Wildcats are so scary! I have a feeling Cornell comes to play, I may take them 1st half. Wake Forest even got out to 10-0 lead before Ky woke up, so maybe they can be had for a few.

roflmao im not putting any trust in Kentucky lol. Im just gonna sit back and relax and hopefully fall outta my chair. Seeing a great ball game

THE PROFIT · 03-25-10, 03:10 AM

Originally posted by melia26

Why do you feel so strong about Kentucky, Profit? They beat East Tenn St and Wake Forest. Oooooh, those Wildcats are so scary! I have a feeling Cornell comes to play, I may take them 1st half. Wake Forest even got out to 10-0 lead before Ky woke up, so maybe they can be had for a few.

Shhhhhh........you're mocking them. They don't like like to be mocked, it only makes them stronger

melia26 · 03-25-10, 03:10 AM

My boss has been calling work Shutter Island all week so I plan on watching that before bed.

THE PROFIT · 03-25-10, 03:12 AM

Originally posted by suckerforparlays

roflmao im not putting any trust in Kentucky lol. Im just gonna sit back and relax and hopefully fall outta my chair. Seeing a great ball game

from too much jaeger? That's the only thing about this game that will make you fall out of your chair. Unless you get easily excited by seeing the best team in the country with 2 NBA prospects beating 5 white boys by 20-30.

melia26 · 03-25-10, 03:12 AM

Oh gosh, here we go! I went in thinking they were the weakest of the four 1 seeds, I guess we shall see what Calipari has in store.

melia26 · 03-25-10, 03:16 AM

Maybe a teaser is in store for me too. WVa, K St, and App St.

THE PROFIT · 03-25-10, 03:17 AM

Originally posted by melia26

Oh gosh, here we go! I went in thinking they were the weakest of the four 1 seeds, I guess we shall see what Calipari has in store.

Jews in concentration camps went in the shower thinking they were getting de-loused too.

suckerforparlays · 03-25-10, 03:18 AM

All Calipari is trying to act like his team has no experience what so ever. BS when is he gonna say his team is ready to play. I just dont see the blowout happening t hough Its the sweet 16 throw the rankings out and let the teams play ball.

suckerforparlays · 03-25-10, 03:19 AM

im really enjoying shes outta my league though its pretty funny

THE PROFIT · 03-25-10, 03:24 AM

here's SFP watchin chick flics

Attached Files

THE PROFIT · 03-25-10, 03:34 AM

Just cant see any reason not to play Uk here, but do as you all wish. It and AppySt will be my 2 biggest plays I think.

Have a good night everyone, I need to get some beauty sleep

melia26 · 03-26-10, 12:37 AM

Well, I won with K St and West Virginia ML, but it wasn't easy! Hopped aboard the App St train and got robbed, so I lost $84 on the day with 2 tickets pending, so I can actually profit. I guess I'm glad that kid's bracket is broke, Duke ML has a chance.