Let's See How This Works Out- Melia's Picks For Wednesday

suckerforparlays · 03-06-10, 05:41 AM

Missouri over Kansas???? fine a better game with better value! plz and ty

melia26 · 03-06-10, 06:06 AM

Mizzou has a really strong home court, I think they come to play. You're right though, there are a ton of other games. I have so much homework and I may not sleep! Some really good games tomorrow, I'm excited! I don't work until 3:30 either, so I can bet some halftimes, which I may do in the Kansas-Mizzou game. I also think Nevada looks like a good late play. Who do you like Sucker?

THE PROFIT · 03-06-10, 10:59 AM

I can't wrap my head around any sure thinks like on Friday. Still searching. I'm loving Syracuse to get their revenge on Louisville

melia26 · 03-07-10, 03:32 AM

Well, nothing great to report today, 2 moneyline parlays hit but my straight bets brought me down. BYU scared me starting the game down 18-4, but they really impressed me their NBA -esque 107 point finish. I watched the end of the Vandy game, with 8 seconds left they were down 2 and chose not to foul, instead letting SC score another basket to win by 4. Frustrating loss and choice by me, I will not back them come tournament time. Anyway, on to tomorrow!

THE PROFIT · 03-07-10, 03:52 AM

I had a pretty crummy day also. BIG on Friday hoping to build off that and made about $20 today LoL!!! Better than losing I guess. I was really disappointed in 'Cuse. But got a big chunk back with my boys on the ML.

melia26 · 03-08-10, 12:28 AM

Betting is such an emotional rollercoaster! I went from hating North Texas to being overjoyed that they came back and won! I have a 5 team ML parlay and a 6 team ML parlay that only needs St. Mary's to win. I hedged a little with Portland moneyline, but I really hope I don't need it.

I'm also going to make a spreadsheet to figure out 2nd halves. I really want to see if there is something to a line when a favorite is up or down. Hope everyone had a good day and that St. Mary's can make me have a great night!

THE PROFIT · 03-08-10, 12:33 AM

I have St. Marys but Port-1 2H. Glad to hear you've had a good day! Mine has been pretty decent due to AppySt & Florida.
Made some good 2H plays today

dbldown · 03-08-10, 12:39 AM

With you on St. Mary's ML - last team of a 3 leg parlay for me. Good luck, looks like they are doing okay right now up 9.

THE PROFIT · 03-08-10, 01:29 AM

Congrats on the Parlay. My 2H portland -1 was a joke.

melia26 · 03-08-10, 02:36 AM

So glad I just saw the final score for Western Kentucky and didn't monitor that tonight. The North Texas victory feels like I stole something, I'm usually on the other end of that kind of win. I can't believe I won both! Let's get em tomorrow!

THE PROFIT · 03-08-10, 03:12 AM

word of advice just like on the creighton/bradley game. It has happened about 8 times now in these tourneys the last few days. If a team has beaten their opponent twice in reg season play they don't beat them the third time. 3 teams are playing that have beat the other twice. Stay away from Old Dominion, Gonzaga, and Siena. I dont know what the lines are yet but these teams should lose SU, so even if they are a 6-10 point fav DONT put them on a ML parlay!

suckerforparlays · 03-08-10, 03:17 AM

Dam dude if Gonzaga loses theres gonna be a lot of angry bubble teams lol

THE PROFIT · 03-08-10, 03:26 AM

cant argue with this trend, it's too strong. The winthrop/radford game set it in stone for me. No way in hell a 12 point dog wins that game in the fashion they did.

melia26 · 03-08-10, 03:55 AM

Wow Profit, that is a really good stat, thank you! I may just lay off tomorrow or only play Appalachian State. It may be interesting to ~~parlay~~ round robin their 3 opponents ML and see what happens!

THE PROFIT · 03-08-10, 04:12 AM

Originally posted by melia26

Wow Profit, that is a really good stat, thank you! I may just lay off tomorrow or only play Appalachian State. It may be interesting to ~~parlay~~ round robin their 3 opponents ML and see what happens!

They all 3 will probably be small dogs so I will play all 3 ML for the hell of it.

THE PROFIT · 03-08-10, 04:13 AM

I live in Johnson City, TN (ETSU) and am only about 45 minutes from AppySt in Boone, NC. It'll be nice to have them both in the dance

suckerforparlays · 03-08-10, 04:20 AM

gonna be a good day tomorrow night

dbldown · 03-08-10, 12:23 PM

I wouldn't bet against the Zags.. they are in a different league, but I'll heed your advice and just stay away.

THE PROFIT · 03-09-10, 12:50 AM

Hope you took the dog in those 3 games. 4-0 night for me, those 3 dogs & Appy St-1 2H. Really liked them for the game but held off for the 2H, that play was free money. I knew they weren't gonna lose by 13!

Sorry if you played AppySt Melia, they just got off to a slow start & couldn't make it up in the second half. After the ass kickin they gave to CoC last night I was afraid they might come out drained, but I had no idea they's be down DD first half.

melia26 · 03-09-10, 12:58 AM

I did take Fairfield and William & Mary on a parlay together which worked out perfectly, thank you! And yes, App St was my loser by half a freaking point! I had Troy, IUPUI, and Oakland on that ticket, so it stung a bit. My big play for today was a straight bet on the over 6.5 in the Capitals game, so that was a good hit. Glad to hear you did so good, I hope we can carry the success into the big boys tourneys!

suckerforparlays · 03-09-10, 01:40 AM

whats up melia what you taking on the Tuesday card

THE PROFIT · 03-09-10, 02:08 AM

You're always at work on halftime plays aren't you Melia?

melia26 · 03-09-10, 02:38 AM

Yes, always working during halftimes, I'm always seeing value but can't do anything about it! I don't want to get in trouble having someone bet for me either. Tomorrow I'm looking at Providence, UMass, Florida A&M, Northern Colorado, and Portland St. I like Troy and IUPUI as possible ML plays with South Florida, UConn, Cincy, North Carolina A&T and Butler. Still feeling it out!!

melia26 · 03-10-10, 01:56 AM

I screwed up and took Charlotte as one of my moneyline plays even though I said I was going to take UMass. I hate when I second guess myself and it doesn't work out! Tomorrow's set in stone ML's are Mizzou, Texas, Wyoming, Quinnipiac, MD Eastern Shore and Sam Houston.

THE PROFIT · 03-10-10, 02:20 AM

I may blindly tail you on those. you are pretty good!!!

I took NCA&T pretty big, didn't look great at half but got a 2H -4 play on them also. They fit into the 3 times in a season BS I'm riding out. But they happened to be a fav. Another one today was WrightSt playing Butler, but I had no high hopes that was gonna happen. Butler too strong and at home for the cship game.

Playes USF this morning under & under 2H and that's all I really got to play. Was gone all evening. I'm just now starting to go over Wed card & I'll see what jumps out.

C-Low420 · 03-10-10, 02:24 AM

Easiest ML Parlay for tmw..
Denver,Dallas (NBA)
Houston, OK St, Mizzou, and maybe Texas
BOL

suckerforparlays · 03-10-10, 02:47 AM

Originally posted by C-Low420

Easiest ML Parlay for tmw..
Denver,Dallas (NBA)
Houston, OK St, Mizzou, and maybe Texas
BOL

whats that pay out on a
$1

melia26 · 03-10-10, 03:25 AM

Profit, I hope you're still awake and can reply your thoughts. I was looking into your 'beat the same team 3 times' theory while capping these games. There is one game tomorrow, Oregon vs Washington St, where Oregon has beaten them twice. Washington St. is favored on the road tomorrow. Same situation as A&T. I'm thinking of betting this straight, let me know what you're thinking. Oh and I really like Wyoming tomorrow as well for a straight bet.

THE PROFIT · 03-10-10, 03:38 AM

I've found some other situations, but let me look at these 2 right quick

They're playin the tourney at Staples Center in LA

THE PROFIT · 03-10-10, 03:56 AM

OK, Oregon beat them just 4 days ago by 8 in Oregon and by 2 on new years eve. Wash St is the better team and the difference in that game the other day was FG's. Oregon shot right at 50% while Wash St was around 35%. In all actuality though WashSt is better on the season at FG% along with FT's and they are the same on 3 shots. That 8 point road loss will be fresh on their mind and they are the better team. Trust me, they have been working on nothing but how to defend that & it will be a more even game. This is the tourney & they should lay it to 'em. This is a prime situation where 2 teams are closely matched, lost 2 times by a combined 10 points, I'm all over Wash St.

I

melia26 · 03-10-10, 04:15 AM

I'm really glad you like it too, in fact I took Washington St. in that game, so they owe me! There were 2 other teams that I like that fit into your 3beats theory, Tulane +7 and Grambling +12. Not sure if I'll be ready in the morning to go to a book, but I think Colorado ML would definitely be on a parlay. And here's a tip, if you ever do a 4 team regular parlay and you have 1 short favorite, it may be better pay wise to take that 1 team on the moneyline versus playing it at -1 or -2 because it is forced to convert the juice payout as opposed to a set 12 to 1 or whatever it is. Thanks for the input, good luck with your plays tomorrow!

THE PROFIT · 03-10-10, 04:29 AM

At first glance nothing really stands out to make me love wyoming. Both crap teams, they have split this season each winning by 7. Wyoming quite a bit better rebounding but everything else fairly even. The one thing that stands out to me most is AF 9 game losing streak. I like to play on teams on a 3-4 game losing streak because they're due for a breakout, but at 9 they may just be done.

Wyoming shot 71% at the line when they beat AF the other day but just shot 50% their next game

But lets look at when they both played New Mexico. AF lost to them 59-56 while wyoming lost to them 61-83. These teams are 5-5 their last 10 so one team doesn't have a historical dominance over the other.

Im just not feelin any love for this game but I dont follow MWC closely. It being played in Vegas it will be bet on heavily though so lets see if the line moves to show some more value

I haven't dug deep into the stats, what makes you like them so much?

THE PROFIT · 03-10-10, 04:38 AM

Here's one from the halls of obscurity I like. CoppinSt & MDES. MDES have beat them twice by 14 & 8 but pure # wise CS is the better team. MDES outshot them 50%-30% in FG's in that last victory, but on the season they are so close on all stats. EXCEPT FT's. I look for teams that have a 8-12% better edge in certain categories & CS is a 10% better FT team which will be the difference in a close game. I feel third time's a charm here for Coppin

melia26 · 03-10-10, 04:49 AM

The simple reason is that Wyoming and Air Force are 2 teams with similar losing records, yet Wyoming scores 9-10 points on avg more than Air Force.

So many of these lines are small! And I saw MD Eastern Shore as 1 of my moneyline plays, now I'll have to rethink it!

THE PROFIT · 03-10-10, 04:56 AM

Someone made a thread about it as a hidden gem & why's the line so low, Sucker likes it as his play of the night, yet the line is just -2. I would be weary of it. I'm just saying all things considered I would lay off it. The 3 times in a season thing is far from 100% & you have to pick your position, but pure numbers wise these 2 teams are as equal as they get & that's the ones that don't get beaten 3 times.