Another question for experianced total guys

Wilforth · 03-02-10, 12:43 AM

I'm not a o/u player but from my little experience with these CBB games, I'd say figuring out 2H o/u plays at HT is easier than figuring out game o/u. Just my 1 cent.

2daBank · 03-02-10, 12:46 AM

i really have learned to love totals im actually hitting over 70% the last 2 weeks like high 70s and well im sure that just a hot streak and will certainly drop off i see why ppl have been telling me for years to play totals

2daBank · 03-02-10, 06:12 AM

bumping this up so the ppl i would like to hear the opinion of can see it this mourning

freeVICK · 03-02-10, 06:39 AM

how are you capping your totals?

BiffTFinancial · 03-02-10, 07:05 AM

without question, teams foul longer in elimination games (well, longer than non-elimination games where JTIII isn't coaching). for elimination games, i will sometimes add a point or 2 to each team's predicted score (same as for espn nationally televised game). the rough cut-off in my mind is if i think that the team will win by double digits or not (14 being the cutoff of where any team should stop fouling).

would definitely be interested in hearing the thoughts of others. i do suspect that books account for this fact and adjust their total somewhat.

2daBank · 03-02-10, 08:34 AM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

without question, teams foul longer in elimination games (well, longer than non-elimination games where JTIII isn't coaching). for elimination games, i will sometimes add a point or 2 to each team's predicted score (same as for espn nationally televised game). the rough cut-off in my mind is if i think that the team will win by double digits or not (14 being the cutoff of where any team should stop fouling).

would definitely be interested in hearing the thoughts of others. i do suspect that books account for this fact and adjust their total somewhat.

thats what im real curious about Bift is whether the odds makers adjust for this fact

2daBank · 03-02-10, 08:37 AM

Originally posted by freeVICK

how are you capping your totals?

i use the tried and true coin flipping method

much like my sides rather unorthodox i would imagine as i take pride in the things i do not making sense to others....kenpom is a big help to me though with all his wonderful meaningful statistics

BiffTFinancial · 03-02-10, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

thats what im real curious about Bift is whether the odds makers adjust for this fact

i believe that they do. of course, i don't know that for a fact, but here's the best evidence that today's card might offer. the Horizon League tourney has 4 games today that duplicate match-ups from earlier this season because first round is played at higher seed's home court. as of this moment, 3 of the 4 totals are higher than was the respective closing number for the regular season match-up (Loyola/CSU regular season 128', now 130; Ytown/WGB 143, now 136; Det/Valpo 141', now 143'; UIC/UWM 139, now 140). of these 4 games, the one where the total is lower than regular season is, imho, the one that is most likely to be a 20-point blow-out (Ytown/WGB).

of course, this might be a better comparison if it compared opening numbers for regular season game and today's game at the same book, but i don't have that information. it's also worth noting that, at this moment, over 75% of public wagers on 3 of the 4 games are coming in on the over (exception being Loyola/CSU). so, perhaps books start the total a point or two higher in an elimination game unless they foresee a blow-out, then let the public do the rest?

someone told me awhile back that it's silly to avoid espn national game unders because the books know about that rationale and so that factor is baked into the book's opening number. if that's true, no way they don't account for elimination game factor.

capri5421 · 03-02-10, 09:58 AM

Good luck to you, with your u/o.

rochestertitans · 03-02-10, 10:03 AM

go over if your close, also what I told you in the PM, and If the second half line is smaller than the 1st half line always pick under.

2daBank · 03-02-10, 10:17 AM

Good stuff Bifft..

Roch....fuk off....just because we not talking shit doesnt mean we cool

i could really do w/o some generic answer like if this is that take under...that shit not for me

CappinTerp · 03-02-10, 10:39 AM

Great question 2da, I love totals they are great action.! IMO the answer is no, the guys who set the price have enough to think about, they cant figure out which game will or will not go to 2min. to play down by 8 and start fouling. If any thing esp. during the tourny, they may set the totals a shade lower.!! Teams come out very,very thight and take some time off the clock. I hope this helps.

IF you like totals wait until BASEBALL SEASON.!!!!

2daBank · 03-02-10, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by CappinTerp

Great question 2da, I love totals they are great action.! IMO the answer is no, the guys who set the price have enough to think about, they cant figure out which game will or will not go to 2min. to play down by 8 and start fouling. If any thing esp. during the tourny, they may set the totals a shade lower.!! Teams come out very,very thight and take some time off the clock. I hope this helps.

IF you like totals wait until BASEBALL SEASON.!!!!

oh yea i love baseball totals and have always been a 60%er on nfl totals just for some reason ive always made college totals out to be harder than what they are.....till finally some wise folks have got it through my very thick skull that col hoops totals are a very profitable endeavor

PittsburghPlayer · 03-02-10, 10:59 AM

2da, Choo the man. Rock on motherfukker.

roadkill · 03-02-10, 01:13 PM

TAKE THE OVER 125 1/2 IN MICHIGAN/ MINNESOTA GAME TONIGHT AND BE A WINNER

2daBank · 03-02-10, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by roadkill

TAKE THE OVER 125 1/2 IN MICHIGAN/ MINNESOTA GAME TONIGHT AND BE A WINNER

your a fukkin idiot get lost