SF Power Ratings

[toosweet]

Teasers are the worst bets in sports, especially in basketball .... Please don't get upset with the comment ... I book sports and I love teasers .... FOLLOW !!!

Thx, I'll play them on slow nights and am well aware of the odd against me. They don't call it a tease for nothing. Gl tnight

[THE PROFIT]

Well, Roch has 3 of these 4 plays & is staying away from Canisius. Neither of you have colombia which I like.

[JerseyShop101]

Thanks Guys!

Lets do it!

[JerseyShop101]

(DAY 9) FRIDAY'S RESULTS:
3-1

DARTMOUTH +26.5/ 3.5 LOST 37-71
YALE -8.5/ 3.5 WON 61-48
PRINCETON -3/ 3 WON 63-46
CANISIUS PK/ 3 WON 73-70


Updated stats:

Proj Cover Amt Over Spread:
4.5 and Up: 10-4-1 (71%)
4s: 6-8
3.5s: 8-9
3's: 17-10-1
Overall: 41-31-2 (57%)
Last 6 days: 21-13-1 (62%)

*Picks which are favorites of 17 or more: 0-3 (0%)
*Picks which are favorites of 10-16 pts: 8-0 (100%)

Feels odd as its an early CBB finish for a Friday night. But a winning finish is all that matters!

Thanks Guys!

[Teaser Sucker]

Nice..

[JerseyShop101]

A total of 21 games make the cut for Saturday's games!

And our 8-0 record for FAVS of 10-16 points gets tested, as 5 games fall in this category! And our 10-4-1 record for projected covers over the pointspread of 4.5 and higher has 6 games.

(DAY 10) SATURDAY'S PICKS:

USC -1.5/ 6.5
*VA COMMONWEALTH -16/ 5
COLL OF CHARLESTON -3/ 5
PORTLAND ST PK/ 5
DUKE -1.5/ 4.5
PEPPERDINE +1.5/ 4.5

*CLEVELAND ST -10/ 4
IOWA +13/ 4
*ILLINOIS -12/ 4
TULANE +2/ 4
ARKANSAS ST -2/ 4
MARQUETTE +5/5/ 3.5
FAIRFIELD -6.5/ 3.5
*KENT STATE -10/ 3
SYRACUSE -17/ 3
VANDERBILT +9/ 3
*DETROIT -14/ 3
BAYLOR +9/ 3
TULSA -6/ 3
Cal Santa Barbara +1.5/ 3
Portland -6/ 3


Proj Cover Amt Over Spread:
4.5 and Up: 10-4-1 (71%)
4s: 6-8
3.5s: 8-9
3's: 17-10-1
Overall: 41-31-2 (57%)
Last 6 days: 21-13-1 (62%)

*Picks which are favorites of 10-16 pts: 8-0 (100%)
*Picks which are favorites of 17 or more: 0-3 (0%)


Lets have a great Saturday guys!

[2daBank]

bro let me just say again how glad i am your doing this..as i told you this is always my first step in the capping process and with this many games your makin my life a lot easier..now i dont even gotta fuk with that part of it as you did it for me

[2daBank]

jersey i thought of something as well the other day with those real big spread games on the ODU and Iona games...we would have to back test it if any way possible but i thought it would be a good idea to play the 1st halfs in those instead of the games and im pretty sure they both cashed and some1 once told me about a thing he did where he played every conf game 1st half with huge spreads like that he had a few dif guidelines but i think your method would be a good filter.....just something to think about

[toosweet]

THX Jersey,work at 6:30 this am, saves me missing out on some good plays.BOL to all.

[JerseyShop101]

jersey i thought of something as well the other day with those real big spread games on the ODU and Iona games...we would have to back test it if any way possible but i thought it would be a good idea to play the 1st halfs in those instead of the games and im pretty sure they both cashed and some1 once told me about a thing he did where he played every conf game 1st half with huge spreads like that he had a few dif guidelines but i think your method would be a good filter.....just something to think about

Your right. A poster named Jaxson across the street, said that the 1st halfs went 13-1, when we went 7-7 the other day. I don't know how to pull up 1st half lines of old games. As you know its not always half of the game line.

But definitely sound thinking, as coaches won't hold back in the first half, nor play those bench warmers which allow the dogs to cover in the 2nd half.

[2daBank]

no they usually a little higher than half...actually the guy that told me about what he did i think 1 of the guidelines was it had to be so much more than half in the 1st half....guess it was like a tell for him

[2daBank]

the other thing i like about it is if they dont cover the 1st then odds are we can get better value on the 2nd half line then what the opener was and id figure more times than not with huge spreads if the team doesnt run out they probably not gonna cover the original line anyway

[ttime61]

well i just came across this thread and checked out the posts looks promising. i just played the big 5. i'm kinda lost with the other 6 though ex. usc -1.5/ 6.5 what is the 6.5

[ttime61]

i come up with iowa +13 marq +5.5 fairfield -6- vandy +9 baylor +9 tulsa -6 port -6. i come up with seven plays?

[JerseyShop101]

well i just came across this thread and checked out the posts looks promising. i just played the big 5. i'm kinda lost with the other 6 though ex. usc -1.5/ 6.5 what is the 6.5

The second number is the Projected Cover Over the spread.

Statfox has USC with a rating of 81, and Oregon with 69.
Oregon is home so you add 4 points to Oregon's rating, which gives them 73. Subtract 73 from 81, and USC is projected to win by 8.
With the line of USC -1.5, means the projected win should cover over the pointspread by 6.5.

[JerseyShop101]

i come up with iowa +13 marq +5.5 fairfield -6- vandy +9 baylor +9 tulsa -6 port -6. i come up with seven plays?

Not sure what your really asking but, I'd mainly stick with the 4.5s and above and the favorites of 10 to 16 points as well. But of course, I hope all 21 win

[2daBank]

you got 1 10 point fav that worries me jersey...cle st...these fuks play down to there competition on the regular disappointing year and for the most part they dont even beat down the teams they should..throw in the fact they did beat down youngstown in there own building and it makes me wonder why they got this line so short....it will probably hit as these have been gold but it wouldnt surprise me if they won by 6-7...gl today

[CappinTerp]

Stay away ,i should better say i can not win@all when youngstown st. Is involved

[JerseyShop101]

Good info. Thanks guys.

[MUHerd37]

Took Charleston -3. Really like that one

[ttime61]

you said there were 6 plays that fell in the 4.5's and higher just wondering if i'm missing something cause i came up with 7

[JerseyShop101]

you said there were 6 plays that fell in the 4.5's and higher just wondering if i'm missing something cause i came up with 7

The 4.5 and up isn't the line, its the projected cover over the line. (the 2nd set of numbers)

USC -1.5/ 6.5
*VA COMMONWEALTH -16/ 5
COLL OF CHARLESTON -3/ 5
PORTLAND ST PK/ 5
DUKE -1.5/ 4.5
PEPPERDINE +1.5/ 4.5

Could sure use a Duke comeback about right now, down by 8 .

[ttime61]

oh s*** now i got it
thankyou

[Thundershock]

Jersey, I noticed that you don't add picks when the lines shift enough to make them fall into the 4.5 and higher range. Any reason for that? Also I can tell you from past experience that using Stat Fox will work for the NBA and NCAAB but you do not want to start using it early in the season or you will get hurt. Also never use it for the NFL. The other thing folks you need to consider is that Statfox is not good to use when there are injuries present as it is a statistics based system. Just some things to be aware of.

Also I was curious, what do you use to get all of the data as doing this manually in takes a looonng time especially on Saturdays.

[bozeman]

Guys, I think we should add some more filters to the system to get our 2,5-3 points difference work, let's say consider rebounds difference as well, maybe in the cases where your favorite is a leader in rebounds as well, the plays will hit more %. It works for me when sorting out NCAAB plays perfectly.

[ttime61]

indiana 5pts last 10 sec. ugh.

[JerseyShop101]

Jersey, I noticed that you don't add picks when the lines shift enough to make them fall into the 4.5 and higher range. Any reason for that? Also I can tell you from past experience that using Stat Fox will work for the NBA and NCAAB but you do not want to start using it early in the season or you will get hurt. Also never use it for the NFL. The other thing folks you need to consider is that Statfox is not good to use when there are injuries present as it is a statistics based system. Just some things to be aware of.

Also I was curious, what do you use to get all of the data as doing this manually in takes a looonng time especially on Saturdays.

Good stuff. Normally, I try to use the overnight lines from Bookmaker at the time I post. Just like you said, with the lines shifting throughout the day with different lines at diff books, there would be a lot of variance between those points. Making the minimum pts at 3 cuts most of the games. Its only been 9 days, today is the 10th, so still trying to see what is the best approach. Even manually, it doesn't take that long as I use excel for it.

[JerseyShop101]

Guys, I think we should add some more filters to the system to get our 2,5-3 points difference work, let's say consider rebounds difference as well, maybe in the cases where your favorite is a leader in rebounds as well, the plays will hit more %. It works for me when sorting out NCAAB plays perfectly.

I'll have to check that out.

Thanks.

[mvp123]

nice work bro

[Thundershock]

Just a warning guys

While this system may be performing admirably this year. I did a backtest of last season's data starting from 1/12/09 and the results were terrible. Even when I made it very selective, (choosing games that had a value of 5 or higher) it still performed under 50%! 2007-2008 oddly enough did very well, coming in at 57% winners utilizing teams that had a value of 5 or higher as well. Just dropping it down to 4.5 or higher reduced it to 55% winners.

[2daBank]

While this system may be performing admirably this year. I did a backtest of last season's data starting from 1/12/09 and the results were terrible. Even when I made it very selective, (choosing games that had a value of 5 or higher) it still performed under 50%! 2007-2008 oddly enough did very well, coming in at 57% winners utilizing teams that had a value of 5 or higher as well. Just dropping it down to 4.5 or higher reduced it to 55% winners.

thats why i just use this as a jumpoff point as once you see a line is off is really where the work should begin....gotta know if your getting value or getting set up as there are tons of reasons that the line is off

[JerseyShop101]

thats why i just use this as a jumpoff point as once you see a line is off is really where the work should begin....gotta know if your getting value or getting set up as there are tons of reasons that the line is off

Exactly, today was a prime example of that........

[JerseyShop101]

The 4.5s and up finished 2-3-1, which was bad enough, but a lot easier to live with than the 6-14-1 overall day.

SATURDAY'S Results:
USC -1.5/ 6.5 LOST
*VA COMMONWEALTH -16/ 5 PUSH
COLL OF CHARLESTON -3/ 5 WON
PORTLAND ST PK/ 5 WON
DUKE -1.5/ 4.5 LOST
PEPPERDINE +1.5/ 4.5 LOST

*CLEVELAND ST -10/ 4 LOST
IOWA +13/ 4 LOST
*ILLINOIS -12/ 4LOST
TULANE +2/ 4 LOST
ARKANSAS ST -2/ 4 WON
MARQUETTE +5/5/ 3.5 WON
FAIRFIELD -6.5/ 3.5 LOST
*KENT STATE -10/ 3 LOST
SYRACUSE -17/ 3 LOST
VANDERBILT +9/ 3 LOST
*DETROIT -14/ 3 LOST
BAYLOR +9/ 3 WON
TULSA -6/ 3 LOST
Cal Santa Barbara +1.5/ 3 LOST
Portland -6/ 3 WON


Proj Cover Amt Over Spread:
4.5 and Up: 12-7-2 (63%)
4s: 7-12
3.5s: 9-10
3's: 19-16-1
Overall: 47-45-3 (51%)
Last 7 days: 27-27-2 (50%)

*Picks which are favorites of 10-16 pts: 8-4-1 (67%)
*Picks which are favorites of 17 or more: 0-4 (0%)

[JerseyShop101]

SUNDAY'S PLAYS:

Team/Line/Projected Cover Amount Over Spread
XAVIER -27.5/ 5.5
PITT -3/ 4
VA TECH +2.5/ 3.5
ARIZONA +2.5/ 3.5
MARYLAND +4.5/ 3.5

Just like 2daBank said above, these should only be used as a starting point.

[Thundershock]

Jersey, just out of curiosity, how come you don't have Loyola-MD up there?