Starting Today... 10 Day Model Try...

[usma1992]

I believe that I have a working system or close. I already have one for college football and NFL. College football works the best. Anyway, I will post my picks for next 10 days... if you don't like a pick... and if you have a reason why... I will try to model it. This season I have tracked 1500 games which isn't enough but a start. I will try to post by 11AM each day. My one caveat is if a game goes into OT... I record the scores based on what the scored in regulation for modeling purposes.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
11:30 AM	DARTMOUTH	69	SACRED HEART	75		143	-3.5	139.5		Too Close	Too Close
12:00 PM	C CONN ST	65	FORDHAM	74		139	-10.5	138.5		Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	ALCORN ST	66	GEORGE WASHINGTON	91		156	-15.5	159.0		Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	NAVY	64	YOUNGSTOWN ST	77		141	-10	140.0		Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	QUINNIPIAC	76	LAFAYETTE	68		144	3.5	139.0		Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	HOLY CROSS	63	HARVARD	84		147	-16	142.0		Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	INCARNATE WORD	59	IL-CHICAGO	80		139	-14.5	146.0		Too Close	Under
3:00 PM	PRESBYTERIAN	64	WAKE FOREST	80		144	-22.5	145.5		Too Close	Too Close
5:00 PM	AMERICAN	64	VIRGINIA TECH	79		143	-18.5	141.0		Too Close	Too Close
6:00 PM	NEW ORLEANS	64	OHIO ST	85		149	-24	155.0		Too Close	Too Close
6:00 PM	NEW HAMPSHIRE	76	RHODE ISLAND	71		147	-5	148.0		Too Close	Too Close
6:00 PM	LEHIGH	71	BOSTON COLLEGE	82		153	-17	149.5		Too Close	Too Close
6:30 PM	GARDNER WEBB	67	AKRON	76		143	-10	139.0		Too Close	Too Close
6:30 PM	JACKSONVILLE	60	PURDUE	89		149	-33	147.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	FLORIDA A&M	58	UCF	89		147	-24.5	136.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	MAINE	71	FLA INTERNATIONAL	74		145	-3.5	137.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	LEMOYNE	68	PENN ST	84		152	-20	153.0		Too Close	Too Close

[usma1992]

7:00 PM	FAIRFIELD	78	FARLEIGH DICKINSON	78		156	2.5	156.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	USC UPSTATE	66	DAVIDSON	75		141	-15	138.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	COLGATE	74	IONA	72		145	-1.5	139.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	UNC-ASHEVILLE	65	APPALACHIAN ST	82		147	-9.5	141.0		Home Minus	Too Close
7:00 PM	E KENTUCKY	80	TROY	84		164	-2.5	153.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	SAMFORD	88	TEXAS SOUTHERN	68		156	6.5	153.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	ARMY	71	TX-SAN ANTONIO	79		151	-6.5	142.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	ALABAMA A&M	66	S ALABAMA	81		147	-13	147.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	STONEHILL	60	MIAMI	93		153	-29.5	152.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:30 PM	N ALABAMA	70	INDIANA	70		140	-14	147.5		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	LAMAR	71	LSU	76		147	-17	152.5		Too Close	Too Close
1:00 PM	HAMPTON	78	E MICHIGAN	69		147	-3.5	148.0		Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	MANHATTAN	70	MONMOUTH	81		151	-8.5	139.5		Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	TX-ARLINGTON	66	TEXAS TECH	77		143	-13	142.0		Too Close	Too Close
3:00 PM	JACKSONVILLE ST	70	ARK-LITTLE ROCK	73		144	-2.5	141.0		Too Close	Too Close
3:00 PM	NEVADA	75	TEMPLE	72		147	8.5	147.5		Too Close	Too Close
4:00 PM	N COLORADO	66	AIR FORCE	71		137	-7	137.5		Too Close	Too Close
5:00 PM	NIAGARA	66	SYRACUSE	85		151	-17.5	147.5		Too Close	Too Close
5:00 PM	N CAROLINA A&T	68	COASTAL CAROLINA	90		158	-10	153.0		Home Minus	Too Close
5:30 PM	TCU	85	OLD DOMINION	67		152	14	148.5		Too Close	Too Close

[usma1992]

5:30 PM	TCU	85	OLD DOMINION	67		152	14	148.5		Too Close	Too Close
6:00 PM	KENTUCKY	88	LOUISVILLE	68		157	13.5	155.0		Too Close	Too Close
6:00 PM	W MICHIGAN	65	CLEVELAND ST	82		147	-9.5	143.5		Too Close	Too Close
6:30 PM	STONY BROOK	60	MICHIGAN ST	82		142	-22.5	138.0		Too Close	Too Close
6:30 PM	TARLETON ST	58	TENNESSEE	80		138	-22.5	138.5		Too Close	Under
7:00 PM	ST JOSEPHS	78	COLL OF CHARLESTON	73		150	-2.5	152.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	ABILENE CHRISTIAN	66	ARKANSAS	78		144	-16	151.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	UNC-WILMINGTON	83	MARSHALL	78		161	-1.5	152.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	BUFFALO	61	RICHMOND	87		148	-16	141.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	DETROIT	69	C MICHIGAN	76		146	-7.5	138.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	IDAHO ST	67	OREGON ST	67		133	-7	131.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	WM & MARY	73	PEPPERDINE	77		150	-8.5	149.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	UTAH TECH	59	COLORADO	85		145	-24	147.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	S DAKOTA ST	74	NORFOLK ST	70		144	4.5	141.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	E ILLINOIS	55	IOWA ST	85		140	-31.5	138.0		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	N IOWA	79	N ILLINOIS	75		154	3	155.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	TEXAS ST	48	HOUSTON	82		130	-28	126.0		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	BALL ST	66	MINNESOTA	78		144	-12	140.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	SE MISSOURI ST	63	ILLINOIS ST	70		133	-14	140.0		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	SIU EDWARDSVL	67	BRADLEY	75		142	-11	134.0		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	IDAHO	73	UC-RIVERSIDE	74		148	-6.5	132.5		Too Close	Too Close

[usma1992]

8:30 PM	WICHITA ST	74	KANSAS ST	76		151	-5	146.5		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	STANFORD	72	SAN DIEGO ST	80		151	-9	143.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	E WASHINGTON	69	WASHINGTON	84		154	-15	158.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	KENT ST	73	OREGON	79		151	-6.5	146.0		Too Close	Over
9:00 PM	GEORGIA TECH	71	MASSACHUSETTS	79		149	-2.5	151.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:30 PM	WYOMING	69	UTEP	72		141	-2	140.0		Too Close	Too Close
10:00 PM	HOFSTRA	78	UNLV	74		151	-4.5	141.5		Too Close	Too Close
10:00 PM	N KENTUCKY	56	ST MARYS-CA	75		131	-16	130.0		Too Close	Too Close
10:00 PM	NEBRASKA-OMAHA	72	CAL POLY-SLO	67		138	1.5	136.0		Too Close	Too Close
10:00 PM	S DAKOTA	74	SAN DIEGO	78		152	-8.5	159.5		Too Close	Too Close
11:00 PM	BOISE ST	64	WASHINGTON ST	74		138	-2	137.5		Home Minus	Too Close
11:30 PM	PORTLAND	67	HAWAII	80		147	-9	149.5		Too Close	Too Close

[usma1992]

I post all the games with numbers in case you want to bet the games I didn't pick. At least this will give a statistical input. Again, I will go 10 days without interruption.

Dave

P.S. Any reasonable feedback appreciated. If you really hate a pick tell me why... ty in advance.

[usma1992]

4-2... Not a bad start. However, I will be looking at App St. game and try to figure out why I was so far off. They were never in that game. 1-1 in NBA. Not making any changes until New Year.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
AM	DREXEL	72	BRYANT	71		144	4	133.5		Too Close	Too Close
12:00 PM	UMASS-LOWELL	72	BOSTON U	65		137	3.5	138.0		Too Close	Too Close
1:00 PM	VERMONT	78	MIAMI OHIO	66		144	7.5	139.0		Too Close	Too Close
1:00 PM	JAMES MADISON	96	MORGAN ST	68		164	19.5	159.5		Away Minus	Too Close
2:00 PM	ALBANY	69	S FLORIDA	76		145	-10.5	151.0		Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	BUCKNELL	65	MERRIMACK	71		136	-7	126.5		Too Close	Too Close
3:00 PM	TEXAS A&M CC	63	TEXAS	79		142	-22.5	147.0		Too Close	Too Close
3:00 PM	N FLORIDA	69	GEORGIA	76		145	-16	150.0		Too Close	Too Close
4:00 PM	NICHOLLS ST	69	TOWSON ST	72		141	-8	132.5		Too Close	Too Close
4:00 PM	GRAMBLING	59	FLORIDA	92		151	-26	147.0		Too Close	Too Close
6:00 PM	QUEENS U - CHAR	66	CLEMSON	86		153	-21	154.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	MISS VALLEY ST	46	BAYLOR	98		144	-38.5	139.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	WINTHROP	69	FLORIDA ST	78		147	-7.5	149.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	MD-EAST SHORE	56	VA COMMONWEALTH	80		136	-23	136.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	CANISIUS	72	HIGH POINT	80		152	-9.5	151.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	BINGHAMTON	62	ST BONAVENTURE	77		139	-14.5	142.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	STETSON	66	CINCINNATI	86		153	-20	150.0		Too Close	Too Close

[usma1992]

8:00 PM	OHIO U	74	AUSTIN PEAY	68		143	4.5	138.0		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
8:00 PM	CHICAGO ST	56	WISCONSIN	78		134	-23	133.0		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
8:00 PM	HOUSTON CHRISTIAN	60	TEXAS A&M	90		150	-32	151.0		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
8:00 PM	ALABAMA ST	58	AUBURN	87		146	-30.5	149.0		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
9:00 PM	BELLARMINE	56	BYU	94		149	-24.5	142.0		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
2:00 PM	UT-CHATTANOOGA	82	WI-MILWAUKEE	73		155	3	152.0		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
2:00 PM	GEORGE MASON	78	TULANE	74		151	-4.5	157.5		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
2:00 PM	SIENA	61	BROWN	80		142	-12.5	133.5		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
2:00 PM	CORNELL	82	ROBERT MORRIS	71		154	8	161.0		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
3:00 PM	DRAKE	79	UAB	69		148	3.5	149.5		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
4:00 PM	MONTANA ST	70	CS-NORTHRIDGE	77		147	-5.5	143.0		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
6:00 PM	SMU	79	MURRAY ST	63		142	5.5	140.5		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
6:00 PM	ELON	67	S CAROLINA	82		149	-18	147.0		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
7:00 PM	GEORGETOWN	65	MARQUETTE	79		143	-17	151.0		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
7:00 PM	S INDIANA	60	S ILLINOIS	76		136	-16.5	134.5		Too Close	Too Close		0	0

[usma1992]

8:00 PM	LA-LAFAYETTE	78	RICE	72		150	-4	148.0		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
8:00 PM	YALE	65	KANSAS	78		144	-15.5	142.5		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
8:00 PM	MARIST	67	NOTRE DAME	62		128	-6	126.0		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
8:00 PM	FRESNO ST	60	SAN FRANCISCO	79		140	-11.5	132.0		Home Minus	Over		0	0
8:00 PM	NEW MEXICO ST	66	TULSA	73		139	-7	146.5		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
8:30 PM	MIDDLE TENN ST	71	SOUTHERN UTAH	74		145	-2.5	139.5		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
9:00 PM	ILLINOIS	77	MISSOURI	69		146	6.5	150.5		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
9:00 PM	E TENN ST	62	UTAH ST	77		139	-17	142.0		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
9:00 PM	MARYLAND	60	UCLA	68		128	-3.5	129.0		Too Close	Too Close		0	0
10:00 PM	COLORADO ST	75	LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT	72		147	5.5	147.0		Too Close	Too Close		0	0

[usma1992]

Only three bets tonight. Good Luck. One bet on NBA.

Dave

[usma1992]

Day 2 Complete... 6-3 College... 2-1 NBA. I guess the San Fran over barely hit but they missed both FTs with 4 seconds remaining. In addition, Fresno St. went several minutes without scoring a point and it still hit. NBA... Houston crushed Dallas. I thought there were more games today. Only two bets...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:00 PM	BUTLER	70	PROVIDENCE	73		143	-6	141.0		Too Close	Too Close
12:00 PM	MISSISSIPPI ST	67	RUTGERS	64		131	3	132.5		Too Close	Too Close
1:00 PM	PENNSYLVANIA	80	RIDER	74		155	2	144.5		Too Close	Too Close
1:00 PM	TOLEDO	72	W VIRGINIA	75		147	-4.5	154.5		Too Close	Too Close
1:00 PM	DETROIT	57	NC STATE	91		147	-24	145.5		Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	SOUTHERN MISS	63	OLE MISS	77		140	-10	139.0		Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	SETON HALL	69	XAVIER	73		142	-4	147.0		Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	TX-ARLINGTON	63	N TEXAS	71		134	-8	131.0		Too Close	Over
3:00 PM	FLA ATLANTIC	74	ARIZONA	85		159	-6.5	163.5		Home Minus	Too Close
4:00 PM	VANDERBILT	63	MEMPHIS	83		146	-16.5	150.5		Too Close	Too Close
4:00 PM	VILLANOVA	79	DEPAUL	63		142	12	135.0		Too Close	Too Close
5:00 PM	DUQUESNE	75	SANTA CLARA	75		150	3.5	152.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	ST JOHNS	72	CONNECTICUT	77		149	-11.5	148.0		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	MISSOURI ST	57	ST MARYS-CA	74		131	-14	130.0		Too Close	Too Close
1:00 PM	LONG ISLAND	62	MOUNT ST MARYS	76		138	-14	144.0		Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	KENNESAW ST	80	UNC-ASHEVILLE	77		157	-4.5	160.0		Too Close	Too Close
4:00 PM	E KENTUCKY	75	ALABAMA	92		167	-24	166.0		Too Close	Too Close

[usma1992]

Day 3 and Day 4 No Games. Currently 6-5. Not great.

Dave

[usma1992]

No games again today. I am calling the next day... Day 4 because a 10 day trial should have actual games being played. NBA did well last night 3-1 with the only loss being a .5 loss.

Good Luck
Dave

[usma1992]

Finally some college basketball... I shrunk down the list to just games that the system says to bet to make it easier to read. Only one bet tonight.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
9:00 PM	MONTANA	67	WEBER ST	71		138	-4.5	134.5		Too Close	Over
12:00 AM	0	#N/A	0	#N/A		###	0	0.0		#N/A	#N/A
12:00 AM	0	#N/A	0	#N/A		###	0	0.0		#N/A	#N/A

[usma1992]

Well... nailed that game. They posted 150+. So 7-5 right now on day 5 or 6. Will be updating the system after the New Year... with new algorithms. Again, all algorithms are back tested to make sure they work over past data. Then, I test them moving forward. Today's picks. Seems like it isn't picking enough games. I will work on it next week.

Dave

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
2:00 PM	RIDER	66	PENN ST	79		145	-14	145.5		Too Close	Under
8:00 PM	UNC-GREENSBORO	70	TEXAS	79		148	-15	143.0		Too Close	Over
8:00 PM	KENT ST	62	ST MARYS-CA	76		139	-11.5	134.5		Too Close	Over

[usma1992]

Got Crushed... last night... 0-3. It wasn't just that I lost... all the bets weren't close to being correct. When your modeling... as stupid as this is to say... having horrible nights isn't bad. It allows you to fine tune in order to find out what you missed. Regardless, 7-8 with current iteration. Haven't really upgraded this model yet... I will next week...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
1:30 PM	DAVIDSON	70	OHIO U	77		147	1	143.0		Home Plus	Too Close
4:00 PM	MONTANA ST	64	WEBER ST	76		140	-11.5	133.0		Too Close	Over
7:00 PM	W VIRGINIA	61	OHIO ST	79		140	-10	146.0		Home Minus	Too Close
7:00 PM	PENNSYLVANIA	54	HOUSTON	85		139	-24.5	132.0		Too Close	Over

Dave