Stat Secrets

By: SBR Staff
Offense may win games but defense, as they say, wins championships. That wise old sports axiom holds true for many team games, including college basketball. But more to the point for hoops handicappers, the question they want answered is, "Does defense cover the spread?"

The Florida Gators won it all last April by playing great basketball on both ends of the court. Florida led all Division I men’s basketball teams by shooting 50% from the floor on the season, and the Gators’ defense held opponents to just a 40% shooting clip on the other end.

Consequently, Florida went 33-6 straight up on the season, and 21-11 against the spread.

Gators backers are already looking forward to the upcoming season as Florida returns its entire starting lineup from that national championship team. The Gators are right up near the top of every NCAA hoops betting board around the internet hovering near 5/1 to repeat as champions this season.

The Kansas Jayhawks led Div-I last season by holding foes to 37% shooting from the floor. Thanks in large part to that tough defense, KU won both the Big 12’s regular season and tournament titles. But the 4th-seeded Jayhawks suffered a letdown in the opening round of the NCAA tournament and got beat by an underrated Bradley Braves squad. On the season, Kansas went 25-8 SU and 19-12 ATS.

Three teams ranked in the Top 10 in both FG defense and rebounding margin. But those rankings did not help bettors turn a profit by wagering on those teams. The Texas Longhorns led Division I with a +10.6 rebounds per game margin, and ranked 5th-best in FG defense (38%). And they won 30 games. But handicappers saw the Longhorns compile just a 14-17 record against the spread.

The Connecticut Huskies, who may well have been the best team in the nation last season, ranked second in Div-I in rebounding margin (+9.5) and fourth in FG defense (38%). But despite a 30-4 record, UConn went just 14-15 vs. the number.

And the Memphis Tigers, 33-4 on the season, came in at sixth on the rebounding margin rankings (+7.4) and second in FG defense (38%). But while the Tigers’ 18-16 mark against the spread would have turned a small profit for their financial backers, nobody got rich.

One other team ranked in the Top 20 in both FG defense and rebounding margin, and they didn’t make any money for their backers, either. The St. John’s Red Storm ranked ninth in rebounding margin (+7.3) and 16th in FG defense (39%). But because of an anemic offense (41% shooting, 60 points per game) and a tough conference schedule, St. John’s went 12-15 straight up on the season and a wallet-draining 8-15 vs. the spread.

The Oklahoma Sooners, 20-9 on the season, ranked third with a +9.1 rebounding margin and held opponents to 44% shooting from the floor. But OU compiled a lousy 8-16 record against the spread.

The LSU Tigers, who made a great run to make the Final Four last season, ranked seventh in rebounding margin (+7.3) and held foes to just 40% shooting from the field. But they could only muster a .500 mark (15-15) vs. the number.

The Pittsburgh Panthers played their usual tenacious defense, outrebounding foes by 8.5 per game (4th-best in Div-I) and holding opponents to 40% FG shooting. These numbers in turn equated to a winning 16-11 record against the spread.

And the North Carolina Tar Heels, the defending champions coming into last season who were expected to take a fall after losing their top seven players, played very well against the spread last season, maybe because they were initially so underrated. UNC outrebounded opponents by eight per game which helped them rack up a 23-8 straight up mark and an 18-10 record against the spread. But with a ton of talent coming back the Heels surely won’t be underrated by anyone, especially the oddsmakers, this season.

Interestingly, the top five Division I teams against the spread last season played well under the national radar. Cal Poly San Luis Obispo’s (now there’s a mouthful) Mustangs may have gone just 10-19 straight up last year, but they compiled a very profitable 19-6 mark against the spread. North Carolina-Wilmington went 25-8 SU on the season, and 20-9 vs. the spread. The Siena Saints went 15-13 SU, but 17-7 ATS, including 10-3 vs. the number on the road. The Jacksonville State Gamecocks went 16-13 SU and 17-7 vs. the spread. And New Mexico State, 16-14 straight up last season, went 18-8 under the radar vs. the spread.