Too good to be true TGTBT Wednesday

[QuantumLeap]

Colorado +5 over Arizona

Colorado just got blown out by UCLA.
Arizona just beat cross-state rival ASU large.

Take the Buffs at home.

[QuantumLeap]

Southern Illinois +4 1/2 over Illinois State

SIU is 3-5 in their last 8.
Illinois State is 8-2 in their last 10.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

gl QL

I'm starting to look forward to your daily TGTBT threads

[iloseagain]

Southern Illinois +4 1/2 over Illinois State

SIU is 3-5 in their last 8.
Illinois State is 8-2 in their last 10.

not sure i completely agree with this one based on overall records, but you are the man haha so good luck! Killin it

[QuantumLeap]

gl QL

I'm starting to look forward to your daily TGTBT threads

Thanks Jake. We have fun don't we? :-)

[QuantumLeap]

not sure i completely agree with this one based on overall records, but you are the man haha so good luck! Killin it

SIU has also only covered twice in their last 6 games.

[sleeper]

ASU wasn't a game. I would hardly call this a let down spot. Wildcats roll -5

[iloseagain]

SIU has also only covered twice in their last 6 games.

Is that what you look for? Teams who haven't covered many games lately?

[QuantumLeap]

Is that what you look for? Teams who haven't covered many games lately?

Yeah. I like to look at recent performance. Now that I think of it, having a team like SIU with such a good record as a dog wouldn't fit the strict definition of TGTBT. However, I'm going to go with it based upon recent performance.

[QuantumLeap]

ASU wasn't a game. I would hardly call this a let down spot. Wildcats roll -5

Not necessarily letdown spot. More of a case where the line is off because of the recent performance.

I hope you got some free cash on the 2nd half in that game. AZ wasn't going to let up in the 2nd against ASU and as you mention, they totally dominated.

[QuantumLeap]

Wyoming +5 over San Diego St.

You can still get this at 5 at the slow shops.

[sleeper]

Not necessarily letdown spot. More of a case where the line is off because of the recent performance.

I hope you got some free cash on the 2nd half in that game. AZ wasn't going to let up in the 2nd against ASU and as you mention, they totally dominated.

Tend to stay away from betting AZ considering my bias as an alum. But I also think they're hot and should roll tonight against a weaker Colorado team

Good luck on your bets!

[iloseagain]

S Illi with a solid 13 pts with 1 min left in the half

[QuantumLeap]

S Illi with a solid 13 pts with 1 min left in the half

LOL!

Not how I wanted this party to start tonight.

[iloseagain]

LOL!

Not how I wanted this party to start tonight.

The buffs and wyoming are going to cover later.

[QuantumLeap]

I generally like to stay away from the small schools in using this system. However, I didn't bet on St. Bonaventure tonight just because I thought it looked TGTBT. So while it doesn't count toward my record I saved myself some money by not betting on them.

St. Bonaventure won 6 out of their last 7 including their last game against then-league leading Dayton. They are playing Duquesne who have lost their last 5.

The line was St. B's -6 1/2 at home. I thought that sounded TGTBT based upon recent results. Duquesne is up 65-59. Looks like a let-down game for St. B's. Maybe I'll include these games in future picks.

[iloseagain]

I generally like to stay away from the small schools in using this system. However, I didn't bet on St. Bonaventure tonight just because I thought it looked TGTBT. So while it doesn't count toward my record I saved myself some money by not betting on them.

St. Bonaventure won 6 out of their last 7 including their last game against then-league leading Dayton. They are playing Duquesne who have lost their last 5.

The line was St. B's -6 1/2 at home. I thought that sounded TGTBT based upon recent results. Duquesne is up 65-59. Looks like a let-down game for St. B's. Maybe I'll include these games in future picks.

Honestly I think it may work better to use season long records as opposed to recent play. I think this is where you find the games that are really TGTBT. I feel like vegas is mainly looking to fool the squares, so these squares dont typically look at recent play and all that jazz, they are just looking at records. I could be wrong obviously, but I like using season long records as opposed to recent trends, IMO.

[QuantumLeap]

Honestly I think it may work better to use season long records as opposed to recent play. I think this is where you find the games that are really TGTBT. I feel like vegas is mainly looking to fool the squares, so these squares dont typically look at recent play and all that jazz, they are just looking at records. I could be wrong obviously, but I like using season long records as opposed to recent trends, IMO.

Yeah, I think you have a point and I think I will add this as a filter from now on. People are going to be lazy and bet on records but that's not the only criteria to use of course.

This is one example of how I keep paying tuition in the School of Sports Gambling. I'm hoping one of these years it will start paying back the investment I made.

[QuantumLeap]

St. Bonaventure comes back to win by 4. Even though they didn't cover they came back from being down 6 to almost covering. This is why I don't bet the small schools in this system.

[QuantumLeap]

Colorado wins!! It's Too Good To Be True!!!

[iloseagain]

Colorado wins!! It's Too Good To Be True!!!

great hit! I was too pissed about some of my losses and missed this game.. Oh well.

[QuantumLeap]

Wyoming loses by 12.

Today: 1-2