Conference Tourney Discussion Thread

[Louisvillekid1]

Lets use this platform to find winners.

Tomorrow we have Atlantic Sun, Horizon, & Patriot Starting.

I believe All 3 of these tourneys are played on higher seed's court.

Lets Start w/ the Atlantic Sun

8 Stetson @ 1 North Florida

The Ospreys have beaten the Hatters both times this season, by 15 on the road (80-65) and just last week to close out the season by 15 @ home (86-71)

I see no injuries/suspensions to report.

Both Teams play up tempo and both take care of the ball very well. In the first 2 meetings the rebounding wasn't a major difference as neither hits the glass. Stetson is one of the youngest teams in the nation and it shows in their shot selection. Neither team fouls too much, UNF 16.7 per (61st in nation) Hatters 17.4 per (104th in nation). Ospreys do a decent job getting the line drawing 18.8 per (138th) while Stetson one of the worst in the nation ranking 258th.

Obviously UNF can get what they want in this game, as they are one of the more efficient offensives going against one of the poorest defenses. Ospreys much better from the line as well.

Line Prediction UNF - 16 & high 140's

Angle: If this total is in the 147+ range which is possible considering they avg 149.5 per in their 2 meetings this year, I will take a shot on the under. Conf tourneys games could leave teams tight to start, also they just played each other literally last game so you'd like to think they will each be even more prepared for their sets. Factor in that neither team fouls a ton and the Hatters could easily get blown out which of course will favor the under play.

Also Lean towards the chalk here

One side note to consider in tournament games, is the kids (especially) those not going to postseason like stetson might have added fouls late extending their season so don't be surprised if totals get pushed over when teams fouling down 8 w/ under 10 seconds to play, etc...

Looking at the 4/5 matchup between Lipscomb and Northern Kentucky next and I'll add thoughts throughout, please chime in with info and thoughts of your own so we can make $ and enjoy the best time of the year together.

[blackeyeshamus]

MONEY.
LKID is money.
Coffee cans full of cash money!
BOL in conf.tourney, brah.

[Louisvillekid1]

5 Lipscomb @ 4 Northern Kentucky

These 2 split this season as the Bison won the match-up @ home by 19 (80-61), then the Norse returned the favor by 17 (77-60).

I see no Injuries/Suspensions to report.

The Bison have 3 road wins on the season coming against 317 Austin Peay, 337 Kennesaw St, & 322 Jacksonville. The Norse are currently rated 229, btw and have been very solid at home. Losses in conference coming to only the top 2 seeds UNF & Gulf Coast and only by 6 & 8 respectively.

Neither squad shoots the 3 ball well (but that doesn't mean they don't air it out) and neither turns it over too much. The Norse are very small biggest guy on roster is 6'7 but they still do a very nice job scoring inside the arc.

Bottom line is there isn't going to be many second chance points in this, its going to be run and gun style.

Line Prediction Northern Kentucky -7

See no angle here as I expect the Norse to win but no interest in laying 7ish w/ them.

[BeanTownClown88]

These look tough..don't want to get in the hole on some bogus teams but its hard resisting these important games..I may go with the +7 on that one since I agree with you, teams will be tight and scoring may be at a premium against a larger team

[THam12]

Hey, lines are out L.

NFLA -17
NKU -6.5

[Louisvillekid1]

6 Kennesaw St @ 3 USC Upstate

The Owls lost both match-ups this year by 3 on the road (68-65) & drilled at home by 28 (74-46).

No injuries that I see

The owls have only 2 road conference wins this year @ Jacksonville by 1 (51-50) & @ Stetson by 5 (61-56). Both the bottom dwellers of there Atlantic Sun.

USC Upstate has showed several signs this year at times that they can pull off an upset or 2 in this tournament. They have one of the best scorers in the Nation in Ty Greene and they really get after you on the defensive end. The Spartans force a ton of turnovers and really make it difficult to get good looks at times.

This game is route city even though its the 3/6 match-up I wouldn't bet against this one being the biggest scoring differential. Spartans will get plenty of second chance points and w/ a player like Ty Greene could give FGC everything they want in the next round.

Unfortunately books will prob be on this and set a line around 14/15.

If it was 11/12 I'd take a shot here on the favorite.

[Louisvillekid1]

MONEY.
LKID is money.
Coffee cans full of cash money!
BOL in conf.tourney, brah.

MAdness starts tomorrow!

These look tough..don't want to get in the hole on some bogus teams but its hard resisting these important games..I may go with the +7 on that one since I agree with you, teams will be tight and scoring may be at a premium against a larger team

Don't get hurt early buddy, I simply bet more games than normal this time of year just because its the madness and I love it. Although I make many 0.5x bets and I will pass @ times Also. I might not even have a bet on the first round of this tourney, just putting my thoughts on paper helps me cap better. But come on day time action I'm firing lol.

By capping the first round of these games you get a feel for these teams you haven't dug into much, which gives you (me atleast) angles going forward in the next rounds. By digging in early on a matchup I might not even bet like this conference Im starting with, I get to refresh my feeling w/ the squad, if you know what I mean.

Hey, lines are out L.

NFLA -17
NKU -6.5

Dam They aren't out at my site yet. Where is that Bet Online?

[THam12]

6 Kennesaw St @ 3 USC Upstate

The Owls lost both match-ups this year by 3 on the road (68-65) & drilled at home by 28 (74-46).

No injuries that I see

The owls have only 2 road conference wins this year @ Jacksonville by 1 (51-50) & @ Stetson by 5 (61-56). Both the bottom dwellers of there Atlantic Sun.

USC Upstate has showed several signs this year at times that they can pull off an upset or 2 in this tournament. They have one of the best scorers in the Nation in Ty Greene and they really get after you on the defensive end. The Spartans force a ton of turnovers and really make it difficult to get good looks at times.

This game is route city even though its the 3/6 match-up I wouldn't bet against this one being the biggest scoring differential. Spartans will get plenty of second chance points and w/ a player like Ty Greene could give FGC everything they want in the next round.

Unfortunately books will prob be on this and set a line around 14/15.

If it was 11/12 I'd take a shot here on the favorite.

14.5

[THam12]

Yes BetOnline

[Louisvillekid1]

7 Jacksonville @ 2 Florida Gulf Coast

These squads split this season first stomping the Dolphins by 29 @ home (79-50) & then just losing to them by 8 on the road (75-67) to close the season.

The Eagles win with defense and second chance points for the most part. They really defend the 3 (10th in the nation) which is important here as the Dolphins can really stroke it.

If I had to take a shot playing this game I might take a flyer on the Dolphins 1h. We could see an inflated line because of the FGC tourney run and they actually have dropped 2 straight, while the Dolphins should come in with confidence after pulling the upset last week. If this line is like 14ish and you get Jacksonville +8ish 1H is might be worth a small investment imo.

Anyway, that's my thoughts on the first round off the Atlantic sun, Nothing jumps out as a full play to me and I will post if I do play anything.

Ideally I would hope for FGC to roll and USC Upstate to squeak by and give us a big line with the Spartans as I think they could pull off the upset

[Louisvillekid1]

Yes BetOnline

Thank you pulling them up now as a guideline

[Regul8er]

Keep up the good work LKid.......I'll be starting up a thread tomorrow with my plays.

It'll be high volume plays no doubt. Sat out the entire season, and ready to fire away.

[Louisvillekid1]

Keep up the good work LKid.......I'll be starting up a thread tomorrow with my plays.

It'll be high volume plays no doubt. Sat out the entire season, and ready to fire away.

Always enjoy your tourney stuff, you had some great runs. in the past...

Feel free to post anything in here, if not I'll be checking your thread daily...

This thread open to everybody, for the duration...

[BIGDAY]

Keep up the good work LKid.......I'll be starting up a thread tomorrow with my plays.

It'll be high volume plays no doubt. Sat out the entire season, and ready to fire away.

Regul8er!!!!!

[BIGDAY]

Will be chiming in here as well.

Conference tourny is a great time to take in some great hoops action.

[Louisvillekid1]

Horizon League:

8 Youngstown St @ 5 Detroit

Titans won both match-ups @ home by 6 in OT (93-87) and by 13 (83-70) about 2 weeks ago on the road.

I think this game could be closer than most think. Detroit thrives of turnovers and the Penguins do a good job taking care of the ball. Now they did give it up 18 times in the first match-up and 14 in the second, but Its so difficult to beat a team 3 teams in a season, especially twice this recently.

Both teams can hit the 3 ball, but the Penguins actually are better scoring inside. Now Youngstown is very weak defending the 3 but the 3rd time around expect a better effort, as they were actually leading in the second half last time they met.

Bottom Line Detroit is going to be a DD favorite here and they should be not be one. I expect Youngstown St to hit their share of 3's and score enough to cover the #.

This will be my first full play of the Conference Tourney season as sign me up for The Penguins +10 for 1x. (Granted my lines aren't out yet so its not offical) I post when I place the wager probably tomorrow AM...

[BeanTownClown88]

I'm with you, discussions are great and staying away from day time action while at work is impossible.
Detroit has been mediocre lately and it's hard to beat the same team 3x in a season as is. Would definitely hop on Youngstown, especially if I'm getting close to DD.

Best part of the year for sure..i will end up making some big ML plays on teams that get it done during tourny time and hopefully get the stack ready for the big dance. Will be checking in and contributing for sure...and my stack is healthy so I'm ready to rumble! BOL

[Louisvillekid1]

7 Wright St @ 6 Illinois - Chicago

UIC completed the season sweep of the Raiders in the last game of the season 61-46 @ home. In the first game @ Wright St, the Flames won by 4 (79-75).

Neither one of these squads can shoot too well and UIC has won at the line where the Flames shot 24-27! to the Raiders 3-5 lol. Even in the first match-up UIC outscored Wright St by 13 @ the strike.

The Raiders are the better defensive team and If could get 3 points here, I'd take them for a unit, with the Flames trying to beat them for the 3rd time and b2b. I still lean towards Wright St in this game as I just simply think they are the better team. But on the road with that big discrepancy at the foul line, its very hard to invest my money on them.

Its Wright St for 0.5x or nothing here, but leaning towards nothing as I see the line opened @ +1.

[Regul8er]

Horizon League:

8 Youngstown St @ 5 Detroit

Titans won both match-ups @ home by 6 in OT (93-87) and by 13 (83-70) about 2 weeks ago on the road.

I think this game could be closer than most think. Detroit thrives of turnovers and the Penguins do a good job taking care of the ball. Now they did give it up 18 times in the first match-up and 14 in the second, but Its so difficult to beat a team 3 teams in a season, especially twice this recently.

Both teams can hit the 3 ball, but the Penguins actually are better scoring inside. Now Youngstown is very weak defending the 3 but the 3rd time around expect a better effort, as they were actually leading in the second half last time they met.

Bottom Line Detroit is going to be a DD favorite here and they should be not be one. I expect Youngstown St to hit their share of 3's and score enough to cover the #.

This will be my first full play of the Conference Tourney season as sign me up for The Penguins +10 for 1x. (Granted my lines aren't out yet so its not offical) I post when I place the wager probably tomorrow AM...

I'm definately with you on this one. DD in a game like this is too much, I had the line at Detroit -6. Small edge to Detroit in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. If the Penguins can hold their ground on the glass, they should keep this one tight.

[Louisvillekid1]

Patriot League

9 Loyola (MD) @ 8 Holy Cross

The Crusaders split their season series losing on the road by 10 and then winning on senior night by 3.

Holy Cross does a great job in turning their opponents over and the greyhounds are very sloppy with the ball. The Crusaders also have a big edge at the charity stripe. This game is going to be a grind as Loyola is really going to have to dominate the glass to leave w/ the road W.

I expect Holy Cross to come up with the win here, but not interested in laying the 6, pass for me.

10 Army @ 7 Navy

Interesting that these 2 square off in the first round here. Navy has won both games by 9 & 8 respectively,

This game is a toss up, I lean towards Army +2 at this point, but not enough edge to make an investment here...

[Louisvillekid1]

I'm definately with you on this one. DD in a game like this is too much, I had the line at Detroit -6. Small edge to Detroit in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. If the Penguins can hold their ground on the glass, they should keep this one tight.

Glad to hear it

Its the only play I like after capping day 1 of the conference tourney slate.

[Louisvillekid1]

Ended up getting Youngstown +9 -105 1x
lean wright St Pk, USC Upstate -15, Jacksonville +8 1H, & holy cross -5.5, but I guess no point to bet them just because its tourney game

[BeanTownClown88]

Woah Jacksonville actually beat Gulf this year and only lost by 11 at Gulf.
The number is high, do we anticipate a tight game or Gulf blowing the doors off them.

Tempting

[zephyr]

Great work here, LK1! Thanks.

[PorkChop]

Patriot League

10 Army @ 7 Navy

Interesting that these 2 square off in the first round here. Navy has won both games by 9 & 8 respectively,

This game is a toss up, I lean towards Army +2 at this point, but not enough edge to make an investment here...

Curious as to Army lean? I love Navy tonight..

[Regul8er]

5 Lipscomb @ 4 Northern Kentucky

These 2 split this season as the Bison won the match-up @ home by 19 (80-61), then the Norse returned the favor by 17 (77-60).

I see no Injuries/Suspensions to report.

The Bison have 3 road wins on the season coming against 317 Austin Peay, 337 Kennesaw St, & 322 Jacksonville. The Norse are currently rated 229, btw and have been very solid at home. Losses in conference coming to only the top 2 seeds UNF & Gulf Coast and only by 6 & 8 respectively.

Neither squad shoots the 3 ball well (but that doesn't mean they don't air it out) and neither turns it over too much. The Norse are very small biggest guy on roster is 6'7 but they still do a very nice job scoring inside the arc.

Bottom line is there isn't going to be many second chance points in this, its going to be run and gun style.

Line Prediction Northern Kentucky -7

See no angle here as I expect the Norse to win but no interest in laying 7ish w/ them.

For what's it's worth, NKU is playing at their old home gym.......which seats about half of what the Bank of Kentucky Center does. Bank of Kentucky Center is hosting High School Regionals, so NKU is forced out of their home arena, lol.

[Louisvillekid1]

For what's it's worth, NKU is playing at their old home gym.......which seats about half of what the Bank of Kentucky Center does. Bank of Kentucky Center is hosting High School Regionals, so NKU is forced out of their home arena, lol.

Nice info, and yeah that's pretty crazy.

TY!

[Louisvillekid1]

Great work here, LK1! Thanks.

Looking forward to your thoughts

Curious as to Army lean? I love Navy tonight..

I don't feel strong either way, so don't let me sway you...

[BeanTownClown88]

Any thoughts on Texas A&M +5.5 dogs at florida?

oops not a tourny post

[Louisvillekid1]

Tomorrow Starts 4 more conference tournaments in America East, Big South, Northeast, & Ohio Valley.

Looking at those now...

[Louisvillekid1]

America East
(Higher Seeds host games)

8 Maine @ Albany

Maine is one of the worst teams in the country and probably will be catching 20+ here, No angle as Albany should have no problems moving on.

5 Hartford @ 4 New Hampshire

I like the Wildcats as I think they are coming on strong at the right time. They split w/ the Hawks in 2 very tough games, a 1 point loss and an Overtime Victory. For whatever reason Hartford just matches up well probably because they defend the 3 ball well. I do think the Hawks are going to struggle to score while they will not get any second chance opportunities here.

Regardless of the fact that I'm high on New Hampshire and think they could pull the upset over Albany in the next round, I'm not interested in laying close to DD here.

However I am interested investing 0.5x in the Wildcats to win the tournament @5/1 to or better. They have lost to Albany twice by combined 3 points and have split w/ seeds 2 & 3.

My lines should be up later today for this as I only have the 3 futures for the tournaments starting today.

Once again I'm not saying that will win the tournament but I see good value here and we could always hedge out...

7 UMBC @ 2 Vermont

This is a basic Bye for Vermont, no angle here.

6 Binghamton @ 3 Stony Brook

The Seawolves won by 12 @ home and 7 on the road and I'm seeing an opening line of 16.5? Either way I hate betting dogs that I don't think can win and Stony shouldn't have any issues here.

[Louisvillekid1]

Big South
(Hosted by Coastal Carolina)

8 Presbyterian vs 9 Longwood

lol how many guys gonna be betting this game tomorrow as it tips @ noon. Im gonna laugh yet, haha.

Icing on the cake these squads split regular season by the exact same score 71-67. Longwood lives by the 3, Pres lives inside. Neither can defend and Longwood much better from the line.

Prediction Longwood -2

Flip a coin lol but I guarantee guys betting this game, but I don't have an angle

The next degen special follows that one:

10 Gardner Webb vs 7 Campbell

These 2 teams split but Campbell blew them out @ home and lost in Ot on the road. 7 seems like a lot to lay here but I dont see anything worth investing in.

last we have 11 liberty vs 6 UNC Ashville

Ashville beat them up both times this year including @ their place to close the season...

No interest in laying the chalk here either

This is a tough tourney to call, Coastal has big advantage hosting it and they won it last year. High Point is a very good squad but they gonna be chalk.

No future value here as i See

[Louisvillekid1]

Northeast
(higher seed hosts)

is St Francis (NY)'s to lose

Ohio Valley
(Nashville)

Murray St is very good but Belmont playing close to home (i don't believe its their actual home gym) but gotta check, could be a threat... Should be a good tourney Semi-finals on....

[Louisvillekid1]

In case you didn't know Northern Kentucky is not eligible for the NCAA Tourney, so if they make the champ game the other squad is auto dancing.

Could be a nice angle

[BeanTownClown88]

Hmm so the other team could just rest everyone