1/5 ncaa hoops discussion

[RollinDo]

rollindo stay away from msu ml its worthless, and stop hedging everything lol

Ha ha ha...no, you're right. I am a hedge-hunter...gotta rethink my strategies.
I am at point in the last half of Yr 2 as a bettor to know what works well and what doesn't...yet, I still struggle to just play a line straight up.

[RollinDo]

rollindo stay away from msu ml its worthless, and stop hedging everything lol

But I disagree that it's worhless if you put them in a 3-team parlay...they are -450, so that's a nice line for this kind of parlay.
But I think I will pass or just do an betpoints parlay with them and Texas ML.

[THam12]

Mercer vmi total now at 148... what thw hell. ..

I have a really hard timing seeing these 2 teams both not getting around 80.

[DOM-Ganador]

Rollin

Very difficult for most gamblers to learn...losses are going to happen, obviously every bet any of us make we have a certain expectation of cashing. Having realistic expectations/goals and disipline is paramount for success.

My #1 goal is to not lose money and have to pay my book, it is not to win life changing money.

Side note on this thread, it is a riot how you 2 guys (Tham/Bank) are battling over who gets to start the daily thread 1st. Riot. Maybe one of you should start Tues. right now. Thanks to both of you for doing this though.

[THam12]

Rollin

Very difficult for most gamblers to learn...losses are going to happen, obviously every bet any of us make we have a certain expectation of cashing. Having realistic expectations/goals and disipline is paramount for success.

My #1 goal is to not lose money and have to pay my book, it is not to win life changing money.

Side note on this thread, it is a riot how you 2 guys (Tham/Bank) are battling over who gets to start the daily thread 1st. Riot. Maybe one of you should start Tues. right now. Thanks to both of you for doing this though.

Lol i dont think we are "battling" to it by any means?
If we see it hasnt been made yet and we have thoughts to share or disccus, we create it. I think it has benefitted a ton of folks here. Probably one of the more productive sub forums on the site at the moment. And we have been able to keep drama out (amazed).

[RollinDo]

Lol i dont think we are "battling" to it by any means?
If we see it hasnt been made yet and we have thoughts to share or disccus, we create it. I think it has benefitted a ton of folks here. Probably one of the more productive sub forums on the site at the moment. And we have been able to keep drama out (amazed).

Kudos to both of you...thanks for your hard work!

[RollinDo]

Rollin

Very difficult for most gamblers to learn...losses are going to happen, obviously every bet any of us make we have a certain expectation of cashing. Having realistic expectations/goals and disipline is paramount for success.

My #1 goal is to not lose money and have to pay my book, it is not to win life changing money.

Side note on this thread, it is a riot how you 2 guys (Tham/Bank) are battling over who gets to start the daily thread 1st. Riot. Maybe one of you should start Tues. right now. Thanks to both of you for doing this though.

Thanks man.

I agree...I am not a great bettor by any means...lean toward the "you suck" side actually. ( )
I have been able to stay even for the past 3 months, which is not easy to do either. I know some have had success, but there is no easy formula. I have had less and less time to research and watch games this year compared to last...just trying not to chase if I have a bad beat or lose and get upset.
What I have found is that less bets is better (for me)...be selective and I need at least 1 day per week to not bet anything...usually Sundays - I usually feel better with that day to not think and recover from the fatigue of betting...yes, I get tired doing it every day...it's draining especially if you think about the games for more than half the day and end up losing or staying even.

[Snowball]

2dabank.. PC had problems at Marquette.. either Mar is better than we thought
or PC was just due to let one go. Tough winning on the road. Dunn and Lindsey
played poorly. Henton was up for it but the team never took control.
What do you think about them going to Butler now ? The line should be cheap
considering the loss at Marquette and being another conference road game.
If PC can stop the 3 Butler shouldn't be able to hang.. but I'm just wary of any
road bet.. and don't know what the calls will be like..
have you thought about this game tomorrow ?

[mrlif1]

Here is what I posted in my college hoops thread re the ND/UNC game tonight:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/2995997-filmoz-ncaa-bb-2014-15-thread-p5.html#post23334449

UNC -8.5 -110 3x

Books open with 11-3 UNC as an 8.5 pt favorite against a 14-1, higher-ranked Notre Dame team.

ND's record comes against mostly weak competition. Best win is a one-point overtime victory at home against a Michigan State team that has since fallen from the rankings. Sole loss is a one-point, highish-scoring affair against a decent Providence, on a neutral court. Offensively they have been very productive, but defensively very mediocre. They have predictably blown out all the cupcake opponents. Halfway decent lesser opponents have scored in at least the sixties. And similar level opponents have all put up 70+. Their rebounding has not been very good. They have multiple guys who can and do shoot the three and they are hitting at a decent percentage, however they have not shot the three particularly well against their strongest opponents.

UNC has had some ups and downs so far, but that's typical of Roy Williams-coached UNC teams. Their sole home loss this season was a tightly contested, low-scoring affair against a very solid Iowa team. Not a bad loss. Good wins against Florida and Ohio State. Won against UCLA who was ranked at the time but now has been sucking, but they did blow them out regardless. They are very productive offensively, putting up 80+ ppg similar PPG to ND, probably more productive than ND adjusting for strength of competition. They are a great rebounding team, do not shoot the three ball well and do not really take as many threes in the first place. Spread the ball around well.

Big situational factors here. This is Notre Dame's first true road game, and they are going into a tough road environment at UNC, in one of these early-in-the-new-year games where nearly all of the students are back and packing the arena, especially when hosting a higher-ranked opponent. ND is also coming off a double-OT win just yesterday. UNC played yesterday as well, but it was an easy victory at Clemson, and they are now coming home. Books opened the line so high for a reason. This is a classic spot situation you see repeated season after season.

UNC should get off to a fast start. ND could keep up and make it a high-scoring track meet type game to keep it close, but I think UNC will be able to contain them defensively. The environment should affect ND, likely to see them be off on the 3-point game and just all-around out of sync. UNC gets off to an early lead and runs away with it.

nice write up. inclined to agree about unc. with the double OT, grant/connaughton(spelling?) playing all 50 minutes, stuart scott passing, first true road game, unc's laugher against clemson (alley-oops it seemed on every other possession, + for the confidence in scoring for tar heels), and just how porous notre dames defense looked against gtech, the spread seems true @ -7.5.

i like 1h (-4) - and i am a 1h bettor for sure - but the legs on notre dame for the long haul intrigue me.

[mrlif1]

what about e. tennessee st @ -4.5. 10% better ft shooting team, battle tested, wins on road, reliant on the 3. samford has no size to take advantage, fouls quite frequently, and has no 3% defense...seems pretty cut and dry. what answer does samford have for jalen riley?

[2daBank]

absolutely not a battle Dom. i mentioned some days i have more time than others so it be cool if someone else started the thread on days i dont and ill chime in when i can.. doesnt matter to me who starts it, i just like discussing gms. if im ready to post something and it not up yet ill start it, if hammer or anyone else already started the thread ill happily chime in there.. really no ego bout this posting stuff for me buddy..

[2daBank]

2dabank.. PC had problems at Marquette.. either Mar is better than we thought
or PC was just due to let one go. Tough winning on the road. Dunn and Lindsey
played poorly. Henton was up for it but the team never took control.
What do you think about them going to Butler now ? The line should be cheap
considering the loss at Marquette and being another conference road game.
If PC can stop the 3 Butler shouldn't be able to hang.. but I'm just wary of any
road bet.. and don't know what the calls will be like..
have you thought about this game tomorrow ?

havnt gave it any thought yet but off the top of my head id assume butler is a 5.5-7 point fav and ill prob either be on provo or pass..

[DOM-Ganador]

Lol i dont think we are "battling" to it by any means?
If we see it hasnt been made yet and we have thoughts to share or disccus, we create it. I think it has benefitted a ton of folks here. Probably one of the more productive sub forums on the site at the moment. And we have been able to keep drama out (amazed).

Tougue in cheek Thammer, though sometimes tough to tell by these short posts.
Just a funny observation. Love the thread, have picked and chosen my CBB picks from this thread and am up units and had fun reading them.

[2daBank]

what about e. tennessee st @ -4.5. 10% better ft shooting team, battle tested, wins on road, reliant on the 3. samford has no size to take advantage, fouls quite frequently, and has no 3% defense...seems pretty cut and dry. what answer does samford have for jalen riley?

my fast easy answer to why i wouldnt play them is similar to hofstra on sat. 1st and foremost i hate laying road chalk on very bad defensive teams and east ten is exactly that... then there that whole 3 point reliant thing, that another type team im not very fond of laying road wood with..so just off top there 2 reasons i wouldnt have any interest in playing them.. not saying it wont hit just a certain way i go about things and part of making my daily card in a sport with so many gms is process of elimination.

[2daBank]

i really dont like OU but i think horns laying too many..

[2daBank]

i really dont like OU but i think horns laying too many..

seriously looks like a one possession gm to me..

[THam12]

Tougue in cheek Thammer, though sometimes tough to tell by these short posts.
Just a funny observation. Love the thread, have picked and chosen my CBB picks from this thread and am up units and had fun reading them.

What you think of MSU tonight?
Arent you a fan?

[2daBank]

Here is what I posted in my college hoops thread re the ND/UNC game tonight:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/2995997-filmoz-ncaa-bb-2014-15-thread-p5.html#post23334449

UNC -8.5 -110 3x

Books open with 11-3 UNC as an 8.5 pt favorite against a 14-1, higher-ranked Notre Dame team.

ND's record comes against mostly weak competition. Best win is a one-point overtime victory at home against a Michigan State team that has since fallen from the rankings. Sole loss is a one-point, highish-scoring affair against a decent Providence, on a neutral court. Offensively they have been very productive, but defensively very mediocre. They have predictably blown out all the cupcake opponents. Halfway decent lesser opponents have scored in at least the sixties. And similar level opponents have all put up 70+. Their rebounding has not been very good. They have multiple guys who can and do shoot the three and they are hitting at a decent percentage, however they have not shot the three particularly well against their strongest opponents.

UNC has had some ups and downs so far, but that's typical of Roy Williams-coached UNC teams. Their sole home loss this season was a tightly contested, low-scoring affair against a very solid Iowa team. Not a bad loss. Good wins against Florida and Ohio State. Won against UCLA who was ranked at the time but now has been sucking, but they did blow them out regardless. They are very productive offensively, putting up 80+ ppg similar PPG to ND, probably more productive than ND adjusting for strength of competition. They are a great rebounding team, do not shoot the three ball well and do not really take as many threes in the first place. Spread the ball around well.

Big situational factors here. This is Notre Dame's first true road game, and they are going into a tough road environment at UNC, in one of these early-in-the-new-year games where nearly all of the students are back and packing the arena, especially when hosting a higher-ranked opponent. ND is also coming off a double-OT win just yesterday. UNC played yesterday as well, but it was an easy victory at Clemson, and they are now coming home. Books opened the line so high for a reason. This is a classic spot situation you see repeated season after season.

UNC should get off to a fast start. ND could keep up and make it a high-scoring track meet type game to keep it close, but I think UNC will be able to contain them defensively. The environment should affect ND, likely to see them be off on the 3-point game and just all-around out of sync. UNC gets off to an early lead and runs away with it.

if nd gets bitch slapped on the boards like they did vs tech they will get smoked.. the over is really tempting to me but both games they played last year were much lower scoring than typical gms for either team so trying to wrap my head around why??

[2daBank]

kinda a bummer it wofford's 4th straight road gm.. other than that id be on them..

[mrlif1]

my fast easy answer to why i wouldnt play them is similar to hofstra on sat. 1st and foremost i hate laying road chalk on very bad defensive teams and east ten is exactly that... then there that whole 3 point reliant thing, that another type team im not very fond of laying road wood with..so just off top there 2 reasons i wouldnt have any interest in playing them.. not saying it wont hit just a certain way i go about things and part of making my daily card in a sport with so many gms is process of elimination.

. no need for the clarification in bold. it sucks that its almost a necessity to do so, in fear that i come back, quote you and say 'in your face' if it does hit. but i understand its all opinion, and i appreciate it good or bad. i do enjoy the insight to how you (or anyone) eliminates games from their card. always nice to see through the lens of another.

fwiw i parlayed both e. tenn and unc ml for even money. good value me thinks.

[2daBank]

. no need for the clarification in bold. it sucks that its almost a necessity to do so, in fear that i come back, quote you and say 'in your face' if it does hit. but i understand its all opinion, and i appreciate it good or bad. i do enjoy the insight to how you (or anyone) eliminates games from their card. always nice to see through the lens of another.

fwiw i parlayed both e. tenn and unc ml for even money. good value me thinks.

im not on samford bud so i hope it does hit.. whenever anyone ask my opinion about a gm and i tell them id lay off or lean the opposite i dont sit here and secretly root against ya if you do play it. for the most part i hope everyone here does well (couple exceptions)..doesnt hurt my feelings if im wrong about a gm i laid off anyways.. i mean if ya come back telling me "i told ya so" it pretty likely i wont lend my opinion next time im asked, lol.. gl

[mrlif1]

right. and i feel the same. i hope everyone wins and we have productive talks that lead to easier decisions.

i was just trying to say obviously what you're saying is your opinion. and i appreciate it, good or bad, from anyone (usually). and obviously you don't know if it will hit or not, but because of a$shole troll idiots on the internet, everyone has to add 'imo' or some variation thereof in their posts. i just wanted it to be known that im not a clown and can handle a discussion. no chest beating or e-dik measuring on this end.

it goes beyond just your post. i see it online everywhere. 'IMO' is such a redundant thing to say, and it only exists because majority of people are idiots, and want someone to point the finger at when they don't get their way. i hate it personally.

[2daBank]

im with ya.. for whatever reason we have always had a great deal of success keeping that crap out of these threads. only reason i continue to do them..

[mrlif1]

looks like it, a thread like this across the street would NEVER work.

[BadLuckSanta]

Lang on Notre Dame +8.5

[2daBank]

i gotta play Ou+6.5..hopefully they can hold their own on the glass as they certainly at a size disadvantage here. they held their own vs a very good rebounding baylor team and think they can enough here. they should hold a big adv in quickness and if holmes is playing the 3 he gonna have a hard time matching up with held or cousins on the defensive end. like i said earlier i think this a one possession type gm so gimme the points, decnt chance i even sprinkle the ml, dunno yet..

[THam12]

i gotta play Ou+6.5..hopefully they can hold their own on the glass as they certainly at a size disadvantage here. they held their own vs a very good rebounding baylor team and think they can enough here. they should hold a big adv in quickness and if holmes is playing the 3 he gonna have a hard time matching up with held or cousins on the defensive end. like i said earlier i think this a one possession type gm so gimme the points, decnt chance i even sprinkle the ml, dunno yet..

Bruh .... lets get this....

[THam12]

Indy 1h and game. Just waiting for closer to tip to lock it.

[eddycash]

i think ind 1st h might drop to 4.5

[THam12]

i think ind 1st h might drop to 4.5

Already 4.5 at BOL

[2daBank]

wife gonna be home soon so wrapping it up,, so far for me..

indy+9
vmi ml+125..like i said think it a coinflip so give me the + money.
ou+6.5
nd/unc ov 145.5..smaller here, my totals aint been great lately..
wofford-1..hate this their 4th straight on the road so almost passed, cant get over the defensive adv and the fact chat beat them twice last season so they should have this gm circled..

gl everyone

[THam12]

wife gonna be home soon so wrapping it up,, so far for me..

indy+9
vmi ml+125..like i said think it a coinflip so give me the + money.
ou+6.5
nd/unc ov 145.5..smaller here, my totals aint been great lately..
wofford-1..hate this their 4th straight on the road so almost passed, cant get over the defensive adv and the fact chat beat them twice last season so they should have this gm circled..

gl everyone

Good luck homey.

[grease lightnin]

I took ind +8.5. Couldn't have said it better than bank in his first post. Only thing that worries me is the looks too good to be true factor

[CappinTerp]

id be all about it if stanton didnt play, i dunno his status is tho..i dont hate it if he does play, i think it tech or nothing for sure..

I agree with you bud....it's TT or pass. I think that many people don't realize the kind of advantage that TT has playing in Lubbock!.............good luck with all ur plays.

[Snowball]

havnt gave it any thought yet but off the top of my head id assume butler is a 5.5-7 point fav and ill prob either be on provo or pass..

think about it tomorrow. Going with Notre Dame and the points tonight.
Not overly impressed with North Carolina's resume.. and unbeaten teams
tend to work hard to keep it that way.