Big Ten Season Long Thread

[juanitodelfuego]

Okay, that proved the morning, now see if I can make it work.

Taking two teasers:

UW pk, over 134 against PU 2x

UM +10, over 134 against MSU 2x

Then for fun wrapped them all together for 1x pay 4x.

[juanitodelfuego]

-1 brings me to plus 4. penetrate, this is driving me insane.

[juanitodelfuego]

Big post on the main page.

IU -5 10x

[juanitodelfuego]

Copied from main forum:

I got off to a great start this season. Teams were performing in line with projections, my algorithms were in lock step with reality and then all hell broke loose. Went from plus 22 to plus 4. I am going to go back and check my w/l record in a minute (all games are posted to SBR)

Then, when I feel like hanging it up, a game like today appears, IU -5 at home against a struggling Fighting Illinis team. They held promise early on, I can not tell you what has happened to them. These teams share the same low point, being beaten by Northwestern.

Indiana is not the shining underdog that we thought they could be either. But, Will Sheehey is back today, Yogi is leading the Big Ten in scoring and Vonleh is tearing it up and that should push Troy Williams to play harder.

Betrand and Egwu played well against OSU, but OSU was as nervous as a whore in church going into that game.

Illinois beat IU by 3 on new years eve on their home court.
Hoosier fans get up for Illinois as they are still pissed as to how they treated Eric Gordon a few years back, and I am sure his brother Evan has not heard the end of losing that NYE game yet.

IU will absolutey crush IL today at 3:00. I will be sitting in the same seat I did for the UW game, just back from Illinois bench.

I will bet all my betpoints on this as well.

IU-5 10x

[juanitodelfuego]

Well not a crush, but a sloppy win. Now I can think +14 on the season.

[juanitodelfuego]

Tonight, MSU heading to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes. I have revised and updated and here is what I see in the Crystal.

MSU has been favored all road games so far this year, and they are 4-0 ATS vs. IL,IU,NW and PS. They average 5 pts less on the road than at home and their opponents average about 58 on their home courts (if you take NW 40pts out of the mix) against MSU 71. But MSU ALLOWS their opponents to score 72 on their home court. This is chalked up somewhat by the quality of their road opponents.

Iowa on the other hand has a ten point home court scoring advantage (84 home vs. 74 road). Hawks are 2-1 ATS at home (covering MN and NW) and a win over Nebraska. Their opponents score 65 against the Hawks at home vs. 68 road games, positive 3 home court, but they have not been tested at home.

So, MSU no big road games every game is tough but some are tougher than others.
Hawks have had it easy at Carver-Hawkeye Arena too.

I have the score 70 MSU 74 Iowa. Spread is -5.5, 149.5. I am going with the under as overall scoring average right now sits at 136.5 and you still have Dawson (MSU) and Payne sitting.

Final call Under 149.5 3X.

[juanitodelfuego]

OT? Seriously WTF!

[juanitodelfuego]

Well that was lucky, up 3x today + 17 for the season.

[juanitodelfuego]

Tonight, two games, after last nights 7% deviation.

OSU - 12.5 vs. PS, 131
UW - 17 vs.NW, 122

I have OSU 75 PS 62, for a 13 point win. Even with small deviation Over should still cash. PS picked up 58 at home last game against NB, 64 on the road at Purdue and before that 68 at UM. OSU defense is not stifling, considering NB, IL and Iowa averaged 64 in Columbus. Final Call Over 131 2x.

On to UW. I have it UW 72 NW 58, NW could show up and get lucky, again I like the over here. The way UW has let folks score on their home court, (UM,IL,UI averaging 72) and UW drilling for 75-80 at home. Final Call over 122 2x.

Interesting fact, Big Ten last 7 days O/U is 6-3, prior week, 6-7, swinging back to the middle.

[juanitodelfuego]

Holy upsets, worried about IU playing Nebraska to finish out upset week.

[juanitodelfuego]

IU +2 @ Nebraska, 137.5 - Taking IU and the Over both for 1 x. I have IU 72, NB 70.

PU +11 @ Michigan, 140 - Taking UM -11 and Under both for 1 x. I have PU 61 UM 75.

Then I did a 4.5pt teaser,IU +6.5 / Over133 / UM - 6.5 /Under 144.5 for 1x pay 2.5X.

[juanitodelfuego]

-5x last time out, + 12 on the season

[juanitodelfuego]

UW -5.5 vs OSU, 129. I have UW 72 OSU 65. Taking UW and over 129 1x each.

[Lift2beFit]

Do you like Iowa today at +5, personally i think they win by 9 at the least

[juanitodelfuego]

I went with the over, was out and about for the game. I only had Hawks winning by 2, so laid off the side

Do you like Iowa today at +5, personally i think they win by 9 at the least

[juanitodelfuego]

Plus 10 on the season for posted pics. Trying to look into the crystal ball and see whats happening tomorrow. Brain tells me Purdue wins outright against this hot Penn State team, but my heart is screaming lay the 3.5 and roll with PS.

The IU game is whole different piece of work. UM is laying only 1.5 in Bloomington ? The same Michigan team who has been tearing it up, win against a beat up yet formidable MSU. This is not going to be easy.

[juanitodelfuego]

PS -2.5 vs. PU, 142. I have PSU 73 PU 68. Taking PSU -2.5 2x. Hot PSU vs. kind of trying to get rolling PU. Home court gives PSU 1.5 more than on the road, and opponents score 2.5 less, this is not a big home court advantage, but every little bit helps.

Working on IU, over thinking the shit out of it

[juanitodelfuego]

IU +2.5 vs. UM, 140. This is a bitch to look at, I have IU 67 UM 69.

But this reminds me of the UW game soooo much. I am taking IU +2.5 for 4x.

Betpoints are on the line if you want UM. 10/sbr member.

GO HOOSIERS

[juanitodelfuego]

Up 6x today to bring us to plus 16. This coming week I think I can break back into plus 20 or so.

[juanitodelfuego]

Iowa -5.5 vs. OSU, 139. I like Iowa for several reasons, suffice it to say Hawks are rolling and OSU is not. UI has 5 pt home scoring advantage, plus their opponents score 3 pts less against them at home. OSU scores 8.5 less on the road. UI 2-2 ATS / 3-1 SU at home, one of those losses is to MSU y 4. OSU is 3-2 ATS/ 2-3 S on the road. The lost to MSU by 4 as well. UI -5.5 x.

[juanitodelfuego]

IL + vs. UW, 129. This one is too tight for a side, but I like the over. I have this game IL 65 UW 69. My scoring forecast has been 5.5 pts high lately. So even if I am still scoring high, 134-6 =128. IL is 2-2(O/U) at home UW is 2-1-1 (O/U) on the road. IL scores 16 pts more (average) at homer vs. road and UW actually scores 2 pts more on the road. Over 129 2x.

[juanitodelfuego]

-1x last night, jumping back on it. I have UM -13 vs. Nebraska. NB has been the best at covering this year, but I am looking for a little bounce from UM tonight. UM 72 NB 58. UM -13 2x. Also 1x on the under 136.5

Next is Purdue +3 hosting Minney. I have 1x on PU an 1x over 141. I have it PU 72 Minney 71.

[rybread9]

You realize it is Gophers +3, not Purdue +3

[juanitodelfuego]

fat fingers, but yes, thanks for pointing that out.

You realize it is Gophers +3, not Purdue +3

[juanitodelfuego]

Last night 3-0-1, push on fat finger PU for a total of 4x, bringing the season to plus 19x

[Lift2beFit]

Did you say Penn state tonight? Like it!



That game in the cards for you tonight?

[juanitodelfuego]

Tonight I am putting small bet on Penn State +13.5. I am only betting one unit as I can't tell the impact Payne will have in his minutes tonight.

1x on PSU

[juanitodelfuego]

Plus 18 x- in a pinch for time. Taking Nebraska +3 for 1 x and UM +5.5 for 2x. Over unders later on

[juanitodelfuego]

While I am waiting for totals, here is a little of what has been going on inside. I have been forecasting lower scoring than has been produced, what this means is that for the month of February so far, I had two games (OSU @ UW and NW @ MN) that scored 21 points lower, each, than I estimated, after that UM had a bad day in Bloomington, but the rest are within collectively are within 3.5 pts of forecast.

So today I am already on NB +3 (3-2 ATS on the road) vs NW (2-3 ATS at home). Nebraska has the best ATS record overall at 7-2 and they are total chumps.

UM +5.5,this is almost exactly like NB vs. NW. UM is 3-2 ATS on the road vs. Iowa 2-3 ATS at home. UM bounced back after the loss to IU and crushed Nebraska and I expect that to keep rolling into today.

NW 63 NB 61
UI 72 UM 69

[juanitodelfuego]

OSU -12 vs. Purdue? This is anybody's game, I am rolling with the points her PU +12 1x.

OSU 71 PU 66

MN-4 vs IU, I hate to say it but I have minney winning by 5. So, taking MN -4 for 1x.

MN 71 IU 66.

I am going to roll with the totals based on my posted scored. where the differential is greater than 5 pts will bet 2x, 1x on 2-5 pt differentials.

[juanitodelfuego]

NW - NB Over 118 2x

[juanitodelfuego]

UI UM under 147 2x

[juanitodelfuego]

Getting crushed today. -5 do far. Where was this Iowa team earlier this week.

[2daBank]

think you have mich overrated, i wouldnt expect them to play many strong conf road games down the stretch..

[2daBank]

pur tough to pass up catching double digits.