Keep ur head up
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Thanks for the post Kev, support is always welcome.
After tonight I will officially be over 100 games played/100 bets placed, which I use as a threshold on the acceptable sample size for interpreting data. The amount win % can change on a night to night basis will now be much healthier (1 win cant move the win% by a whole % anymore).Comment -
Day 26: Results
Last night I went 4-3, but only won 45 cents since I lost the big pick. Washington showed no mercy against Arizona state, it was a lynching. I fixed an accounting error that was counting one day twice. This means I haven't actually played over 100 thread games. There are not very many games today, and I don't believe there will be an official pick. I will almost for sure make an NCAAB bet today, but it will not be an official thread play!
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Troy vs. Georgia state Troy +16.5 10.1 10 1 10 Murray state vs. SE Missouri state SE Missouri +4 5.15 5 1 -5.15 Marshall vs. Akron Marshall +11.5 7.95 7.5 1 7.5 Oakland vs. Wright state Oakland +8 11 10 1 -11 Wichita state vs. Southern Illinois Wichita state -12 10.6 10 1 10 Siena vs. Monmouth-NJ Monmouth pk 5.3 5 1 5 Washington vs. Arizona state Arizona state -10 15.9 15 1 -15.9 Total: 66 62.5 4 3 0 0.45
Thread to date
Total Wins Total Losses Net Units Net Dollars 54 42 9.276 53.73 Win %= 56.25
I have not been including units won for a number of days now. I will fix that when I get less lazyComment -
LMAO cheer fitguy, big card today, brace yourselvesComment -
Day 27: THE BIG CARD
Big fat card today boys. $115 risked and counting. I shouldn't have this much money in play, but I think today will work out well! The numbers were pretty consistent, and this has me excited! I Made all bets to win one unit, since making some bets bigger than others seems to keep burning me. If I walk away over .500 today, then it was a good day! Lets get it
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Washington U vs. Arizona Arizona -17 10.3 10 Clemson vs. Boston College Clemson -2.5 10.3 10 Drake vs. Bradley Drake -4.5 10.9 10 Virginia vs. Florida state watch Florida -4 pre 5 Eastern washington vs. Idaho state watch Idaho +1 pre 9 Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Iowa state -5.5 11 10 Western Kentucky vs. Troy Troy +6.5 10.6 10 Wyoming vs. Nevada Wyoming +2.5 10 12.4 Miami Florida vs. Syracuse Syracuse -13 10.6 10 Air Force vs. UNLV UNLV -14.5 10.5 10 Davidson vs. Wofford watch Wofford +3 pre 7 Georgia State vs. South Alabama South Alabama +2 10 11.1 Yale vs. St Louis St Louis -14.5 10.2 10 Georgia Tech vs. Maryland watch GA +8.5 pre 2 Long Beach state vs. Missouri Missouri -13.5 11 10 Total: 115.4 113.5 0 0 0 0 Comment -
Unless some kind of a miracle happens, I am set for a crappy night that undoes most of the progress I have made in this thread
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Day 27: results (the big fail)
I don't even feel like writing something after yesterday. I couldn't catch a break in any game. A few big upsets happened when I called a favorite to win by a lot. Clemson missed a free throw at the end and didn't cover. These days happened, but its such a slap in the face for it to happen right after I get some confidence and increase unit size. I am not shook up, I am going to keep making my picks the exact same way, this is just the way she goes. This video sums up last night<em>
Results of the Saturday from hell
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Washington U vs. Arizona Arizona -17 10.3 10 1 -10.3 Clemson vs. Boston College Clemson -2.5 10.3 10 1 -10.3 Drake vs. Bradley Drake -4.5 10.9 10 1 -10.9 Virginia vs. Florida state Florida -3.5 10.6 10 1 -10.6 Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Iowa state -5.5 11 10 1 10 Western Kentucky vs. Troy Troy +6.5 10.6 10 1 -10.6 Wyoming vs. Nevada Wyoming +2.5 10 12.4 1 -10 Miami Florida vs. Syracuse Syracuse -13 10.6 10 1 -10.6 Texas San Antonio vs. Arkansas Arkansas -29 10.6 10 1 10 Air Force vs. UNLV UNLV -14.5 10.5 10 1 -10 Davidson vs. Wofford Wofford +3 10 12.9 1 -10 Georgia State vs. South Alabama South Alabama +2 10 11.1 1 -10 Yale vs. St Louis St Louis -14.5 10.2 10 1 10 Long Beach state vs. Missouri Missouri -13.5 11 10 1 -11 Total: 146.6 146.4 3 11 0 -84.3
Thread to date
Total Wins Total Losses Net Units Net Dollars 57 53 9.276 -30.57 Win %= 51.8181818 Comment -
Only play today is oregon +5. I could sure use a win right now hahaComment -
Day 28: Stop the bleading
I'm not looking for a big huge win today, even just an even day would stop the bleeding that's happening right now. All the progress I made in this thread is just about gone, and I am back to clawing for every inch of ground. That is ok, this is a situation I am familiar with, and I know how to keep my cool.
I don't take stupid risks, I do not allow myself to lose faith after one bad day. These are among the reasons I believe I have what it takes to make a real go at this. I have lowered my standards just for today, and I am playing a lot of games that are almost plays by my system. This is a risk, but it is neither big nor stupid. Only one game would be a play under my typical standards, and that is citadel +4.5. I am monitoring this line, and hoping to take it at +5 before tip-off.
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Canisius vs. Marist Marist +2 10 12.3 Chattanooga vs. Citadel watch citadel +4.5 pre 7 Furman vs. NC-Greensboro UNCG -6 10.6 10 Iona vs. Quinnipiac Iona +3 10.8 10 Total: 31.4 32.3 0 0 0 0
I dug myself out of a hole at the start of this thread, and I can/will do it again. At least this time I am still sitting over 500 after a heinous day. It's good to remind myself that although getting a 3-11 day shits on the thread record, there is probably an 11-3 day waiting out there to build it back up to an acceptable standard.
If I am lucky, this is the lowest point the thread will be at all season. Show some support guys, this thread isn't going anywhere!Comment -
Stay after it greaseking. I had a horrible last three weeks that I am still banging my head over. This horrible three week stretch was preceded by the best run I've ever had an it included a 21 day positive money streak, but, now I am back at square one so I know how you feel. I'm desperate to win today as well so BOL man!Comment -
haha cheers buddy. Keep your head held high, and don't do something stupid when you get impatient for the good times to start rolling againComment -
Greaseking, if i paid you, could you grease me up?
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Day 28
WOOOOOO 3-1 today, needed that badly. Citadel gave me a heart attack at the end, but they covered by one point (pat myself on the back for waiting for points on the spread). Marist was a great game to watch, and they ended up winning straight up in the end! I couldn't get a link to stream UNCG, but they were winning all game long, and got the lead up to 8 from the foul game at the end. In the Iona vs. Quinn game, I really think I could have won that bet if Iona wasn't sleeping at the start. The game began with a 23-4 run by Quinn, and the lead stayed around that for most of the game. In the second half, Iona slowly ate away at the big lead established early, but it wasn't even close to enough. NO COMPLAINTS, NEEDED THESE WINS BADLY!
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Canisius vs. Marist Marist +2 10 12.3 1 12.3 Chattanooga vs. Citadel Citadel +5 10.6 10 1 10 Furman vs. NC-Greensboro UNCG -6 10.6 10 1 10 Iona vs. Quinnipiac Iona +3 10.8 10 1 -10.8 Total: 42 42.3 3 1 0 21.5
Thread to date
Total Wins Total Losses Net Units Net Dollars 60 55 9.276 -19.67 Win %= 52.173913
No more basketball for tonight. Got a big bet on Auburn +11.5 in the BCS national championship, and its looking really nice right now
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Good job todayComment -
Kansas state -3.5 is +101 at pinnacle right now, and my numbers say they should be almost an 8 point favorite. I am probably going to hit this line soonComment -
on K State tonight myself. Good luck GK!Comment -
Day 29
I stopped the bleeding last night, but that is just one tiny step on this journey. Today I had the time to watch the lines and do my homework all day for the first time in a long time, so I have no excuses. Being patient with the Kansas state line was the most frustrating thing ever, but I think I got it at just the right time. I have lots of leans today, but i am not playing any of them unless there is quick line movement before tip-off. I watched Notre Dame -5.5 all day just waiting for it to finally hit -5...It jumped from -5.5 to -7 with all books at the same time. Hopefully I don't kick myself for not pulling the trigger earlier. Charleston I only put 5 on when the line first moved to -5.5. I was hoping to see it move to -5.0 for the other 5, but the line jumped back up to -6.5.
In addition to these full time ATS picks, I also have a first half pick tonight. Kansas state-1.5 first half looks too good to be true, so I took it as an outside of the thread pick. Not only is K-state underrated on this spread, but K-state scores a lot more points in the first than they do the second, and TCU sometimes craps the bed on first half D.Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won James Madison vs. Charleston Charleston -5.5 5.3 5 Michigan vs. Ohio State Ohio State +5.5 10.3 10 Kansas state vs. TCU Kansas State -3 11.1 10 Total: 26.7 25 0 0 0 0 Comment -
3-0 night woooo! Only a couple more games over .500 and I will erase the blemish that was this past saturday, and have the thread up to at least 55% win rate again. Ohio state was down by 17 at one point, but came back to take it to over time and lose but cover the spread. Going from being down by 17 and showing no relief in sight, to almost winning and covering the spread. That felt like this:
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won James Madison vs. Charleston Charleston -5.5 5.3 5 1 5 Michigan vs. Ohio State Ohio State +5.5 10.3 10 1 10 Kansas state vs. TCU Kansas State -3 11.1 10 1 10 Total: 26.7 25 3 0 0 25
Total Wins Total Losses Net Units Net Dollars 63 55 9.276 5.33 Win %= 53.3898305
Won the K-state -1.5 first half too
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fun to watch
I dont gamble on college basketball during the week. too many games not enough interest,but I really enjoy your writeups and following your picks. Great night last night, I find myself following and rooting for them almost like i have money on them. Looking forward toyour writeups for today good luck and keep the smart posts coming.Comment -
Thanks a lot Chalutes. Good to hear from a follower. I have a few threads I'm like that with too. Wallco NHL gold comes to mind. He is the only person who seems to consistently make money on the wild and crazy NHL. I woke up early to make my picks today, but then fell asleep for like 8 more hours. Hopefully I didn't miss too much valueComment -
Day 30
Pretty big card today. I didn't like what I saw on the match ups for some of my picks, but I am relying on the results of my numbers more than I am my sports intuition today. Arkansas comes to mind. My numbers say that line is off by like 5 points, but when I read in to the match up I can't believe this to be true. UNLV worries me too. When I have the time, I am going to start doing more research in addition to my calculations. I believe this could add 0-5% to my win rate when I become more competent at this. Also, it will allow me to do proper write-ups, which the people enjoy.
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Ohio vs. Kent state Watch for ohio +3 Georgia vs. Missouri watch for missouri -11 Kansas vs. Oklahoma Oklahoma +6 10.9 10 Georgetown vs. Providence Georgetown -1 10 10.1 Nevada vs. UNLV UNLV -8 10.2 10 Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Arkansas -2 10.6 10 Wake Forest vs. Virginia watch for wake forest +12.5 Boise state vs. San Diego state San Diego -5.5 11 10 St. Joseph's vs. Massachusetts Massachusetts -6 11 10 Utah vs. Washington Utah +3 10 12 Total: 73.7 72.1 0 0 0 0
$70 in play and counting, hopefully this goes a little better than the last time I had so many games in one day. A big day here could turn the thread back in to what it is supposed to be.
Bonus play: Take Drexel over William and Mary on the moneyline. This game will be tight, but I give the edge to DrexelComment -
It's going just as bad as the other big cards, maybe worse. Starting things out 0-5Comment -
day 30: results
I haven't had a single big card go over .500 yet since I started this thread. In fact, I haven't had one be anything but terrible. Very frustrating to say the least. I make steady progress over a couple days, then it disappears in one day. Four games were decided by 1 point ATS, painful to lose them one after another.
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Kansas vs. Oklahoma Oklahoma +6 10.9 10 1 -10.9 Georgetown vs. Providence Georgetown -1 10 10.1 1 -10 Nevada vs. UNLV UNLV -8 10.2 10 1 -10.2 Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Arkansas -2 10.6 10 1 -10.6 Boise state vs. San Diego state San Diego -5.5 11 10 1 -11 St. Joseph's vs. Massachusetts Massachusetts -6 11 10 1 -11 Utah vs. Washington Utah +3 10 12 1 -10 Total: 73.7 72.1 1 6 0 -73.7
Thread to date
Total Wins Total Losses Net Units Net Dollars 64 61 9.276 -68.37 Win %= 51.2 Comment -
Day 31: Big cards=Big fails
Another day where a ton of games are plays. This terrifies me. The gambling gods are angry with me for something, but I'm not sure what. Some of these plays feel like trap plays. Like the spread was +6 on one of them, with a consensus of 65% betting on it, and it went to +6.5. 60% still bet on that, and it went up to +7. This defies my understanding of how lines are shaped and moved, so obviously I need to do more research. I'm not gonna type a lot, these big loss days are getting me bummed out. Hopefully a little luck comes my way tonight.
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won NC Greensboro vs. Appalachian state NC +4 11 10 North Dakota state vs. IUPUI Fort Wayne IPFW +7 10.6 10 Idaho state vs. North Dakota Idaho state +6.5 11 10 Weber state vs. Northern Colorado Northern Colorado -1.5 15 15.45 South Florida vs. Temple Temple -6.5 5.1 5 California vs. Oregon Oregon -6 17.1 15 Eastern Illinois vs. Tennessee Tech Tennessee Tech -7 15.75 15 Florida Atlantic vs. Louisiana Tech wait for Louisiana -17 Hawaii vs. Cal Poly SLO Hawaii +4 10.9 10 Davidson vs. Furman Furman +11.5 10.6 10 Total: 107.05 100.45 0 0 0 0 Comment -
Day 31: holy hell a win
Played a big card and won, I think. I'm drunk as hell with a couple of my followers in real life (and a few others that have no idea who "grease king" is). We are smoking, we are drinking, and its a good time. Went 7-5 tonight, boosts my confidence that I played a big card and didn't get burned as a result. 2 games over .500 is a very comfortable win rate, I could do that every night and love life right until my due date. I did not see a single game, not even one basket, so I learned nothing. That being said, wins are wins, pop pop. I`m gonna ramble and make typos if I keep going. More music, more beers, more pizza!. Here are the results
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won NC Greensboro vs. Appalachian state NC +4 11 10 1 10 North Dakota state vs. IUPUI Fort Wayne IPFW +7 10.6 10 1 10 Idaho state vs. North Dakota Idaho state +6.5 11 10 1 10 Weber state vs. Northern Colorado Northern Colorado -1.5 15 15.45 1 15.45 South Florida vs. Temple Temple -6.5 5.1 5 1 -5.1 California vs. Oregon Oregon -6 17.1 15 1 -17.1 Montana vs. Eastern Washington Eastern Washington +2 10 11.1 1 11.1 George Washington vs. La Salle George Washington +3 10.6 10 1 -10.6 Eastern Illinois vs. Tennessee Tech Tennessee Tech -7 15.75 15 1 15 Florida Atlantic vs. Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech -17 10.6 10 1 10 Hawaii vs. Cal Poly SLO Hawaii +4 10.9 10 1 -10.9 Davidson vs. Furman Furman +11.5 10.6 10 1 -10.6 Total: 138.25 131.55 7 5 0 27.25
Thread to date
Total Wins Total Losses Net Units Net Dollars 71 66 9.276 -41.12 Win %= 51.8248175
The thread win rate is meh, the +/- $ rate is unacceptable, but winning days on big cards are now officially possible, let the good times roll!
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Day 32
Two plays tonight. Radford looks like free money, so I put 2units on it instead of just 1. Tip-off is happenning, posting plays instead of typing to ensure I didn't post winners once the game was in play!
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Monmouth vs. Niagara Monmouth +7 10.9 10 Radford vs. High point Radford +2 20 23.2 Total: 30.9 33.2 0 0 0 0 Comment -
Day 32: results
2-0 today. I Still have a lot of ground to make up. Hopefully I can get a good saturday tomorrow. Will post plays before noon
Thread to dateGame Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Monmouth vs. Niagara Monmouth +7 10.9 10 1 10 Radford vs. High point Radford +2 20 23.2 1 23.2 Total: 30.9 33.2 2 0 0 33.2
Total Wins Total Losses Net Units Net Dollars 73 66 9.276 -7.92 Win %= 52.5179856 Comment -
enjoy each winning day GK, 2-0 is awesome. Don't stress about trying to make up ground or achieve a certain percentage. Goals are great to have, but treat each day as a day of work and try your best to cap to your potential. Being work; some days are good, some are bad. The win total and % will be there in the end if you do you work. Enjoy the fruits of your labor my manComment -
Words to live by^. Here's to a good saturday!Comment -
Dayy 33: skeptical of saturdays
Today is a saturday with a million games, so naturally I fear I will lose most of what I bet on today. Tip-off is in a couple minutes, so straight to the plays again. If I have 5 dollars on a game I am way less confident in the pick. If I have no money next to it, it means I haven't officially made the pick, but the numbers say it is a good one.
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Boston College vs. Virginia Tech Virginia tech -2 10 10.9 North Carolina vs. Syracuse Syracuse -8.5 5.4 5 Bonaventure vs. Massachusetts UMASS -8 10 10.8 TCU vs. Baylor Baylor -15 Dartmouth vs. Harvard Harvard -14 5 5 Memphis vs. Temple Temple +8.5 pre 3 Delaware vs. James Madison Delaware -3 pre 4
I will have more games later, these are just the early onesComment -
Day 33: full card
Here is the complete card. Way more games than this were plays by my numbers. Rather than play them all as I have been in the past, I only picked the ones I liked best. Hopefully weeding out the plays by reading in to the games in a less statistical fashion will show an improvement over playing every game without emotion.
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Boston College vs. Virginia Tech Virginia tech -2 10 10.9 1 -10 North Carolina vs. Syracuse Syracuse -8.5 5.4 5 1 5 Bonaventure vs. Massachusetts UMASS -8 10 10.8 1 -10 Dartmouth vs. Harvard Harvard -14 5 5 1 5 Delaware vs. James Madison Delaware -3 10 10.9 Texas state vs. Louisiana Monroe Louisiana Monroe -5 11.1 10 Florida International vs. Lousiana Tech Louisiana Tech -16 10.6 10 Nebraska Omaha vs. Western Illinois Nebraska Omaha -2 15 15 Pepperdine vs. San Diego Pepperdine +6.5 10.4 10 Virginia vs. NC state watch NC state +2.5 pre 5 Hawaii vs. CS Northridge Hawaii first half -1 5.4 5 Montana vs. Portland state Portland state +5 10.6 10 Rutgers vs. Cincinatti Cincinatti -13.5 10.6 10 UAB vs. Middle Tenn UAB +6 pre 6 Cal Poly SLO vs. UC Santa Barbara UC Santa -8 pre 7 Total: 114.1 112.6 2 2 0 -10 Comment -
Day 33: results
Finally had a good Saturday, went 8-5. A lot of the plays I weeded out as no-plays lost, a couple won. I will continue doing this unless results give me reason to do otherwise. Fighting my way back up to where I was before I increased unit size.
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Boston College vs. Virginia Tech Virginia tech -2 10 10.9 1 -10 North Carolina vs. Syracuse Syracuse -8.5 5.4 5 1 5 Bonaventure vs. Massachusetts UMASS -8 10 10.8 1 -10 Dartmouth vs. Harvard Harvard -14 5 5 1 5 Delaware vs. James Madison Delaware -3 10 10.9 1 10.9 Texas state vs. Louisiana Monroe Louisiana Monroe -5 11.1 10 1 -11.1 Florida International vs. Lousiana Tech Louisiana Tech -16 10.6 10 1 10 Nebraska Omaha vs. Western Illinois Nebraska Omaha -2 15 15 1 -15 Pepperdine vs. San Diego Pepperdine +6.5 10.4 10 1 10 Hawaii vs. CS Northridge Hawaii first half -1 5.4 5 1 -5.4 Montana vs. Portland state Portland state +5 10.6 10 1 10 Rutgers vs. Cincinatti Cincinatti -13.5 10.6 10 1 10 UAB vs. Middle Tenn UAB +7 10.6 10 1 10 Total: 124.7 122.6 8 5 0 19.4
Thread to date
Total Wins Total Losses Net Units Net Dollars 81 71 9.276 11.48 Win %= 53.2894737 Comment -
Nice workComment
"positive spin" department
