Grease King's greasy NCAAB plays

[Grease King]

Hey guys,

I'm a recent engineering grad who started handicapping as a hobby now that I have the time to watch sports every day. Basketball has proven itself to be the best sport to actually handicap (i.e predict your own spreads), and NCAAB has proven itself to present more opportunity than the NBA.

What I do is I handicap what I think the spread should actually be, then I look for games where my spread disagrees with the spread offered by the bookie. If there is a 2+ point difference in the spreads I pick the side that gives more value to me. If there is an outrageous difference between the line I drew and the one the book drew, then I presume I missed something and don't touch the game.

As of today (Dec-03), I am 33-12 for a 73.33% win rate on the season. I KNOW THIS NUMBER WILL DROP, 73.3% WIN RATE IS NOT SUSTAINABLE!

None the less, I really believe I am on to something, and would like to share my picks with the community. I already track everything in an excel spreadsheet, but without posting my picks before the game starts, there is no way of knowing if I am for real or not!

Now that the serious crap is out of the way, I would like to say that this is a relaxed thread. I am an engineer, but I also smoke weed almost every night and drink on a regular basis. Spam hate and Spam love are always welcome, anything to keep the thread alive

Tail me, fade me, hate me, whatever...Here come the picks!

[Grease King]

day 1

Dec-03

Game	Pick	Dollars Bet	To win	Win	Loss	Units Won	Dollars Won
Massachusetts vs. Eastern Michigan	Massachusetts -5	5.3	5
Miami-Ohio vs. IUPU-Fort Wayne	IPFW -2	5	5.15
Belmont vs. middle Tenn St	Belmont +7	5.15	5
Notre Dame vs. Iowa	Iowa -7	4.36	4
Southern Utah vs. CS Northridge	Southern Utah +14	5	5

[2daBank]

gl on the season..

[Bears4LIFE7]

Which one are you most confident on? looking to go big on 1 or 2 games

[chalutes84]

good post

Really enjoy posts like this, hope you keep it updated and to well. Really wish you would include some information and data behind the picks.

[Louisvillekid1]

Welcome

I'm on Iowa 4x but against you on MTSU 2x

[Grease King]

Chalutes, I will start posting my predicted spread, but anything more than that starts to give a little too much insight in to how I do things. If this does turn out to be a profitable system, then I can't let it become common knowledge!

Bears, I am about to post my predicted spreads for the games I picked. I will bold the one with the largest gap from my spread to the books thread.

[Grease King]

Easten Michigan vs. Massachusetts
Grease King line= Massachusetts -8.3 Vegas Line=Massachusetts-5.5
I took this earlier in the day at -5.0, line movement suggests I capped this one correctly

IPFW vs. Miami OH
Grease King line= IPFW -6.2 Vegas Line=IPFW-1.5
I took this at IPFW-2 for the +money

Middle Tenn St. vs. Belmont
Grease King line=Middle Tenn -4 Vegas Line=Middle Tenn St. -8
I took this at Belmont +7, Line movement suggests I am wrong. If I am right, there is now more value


Notre Dame Vs. Iowa
Grease King line = Iowa -10.6 Vegas Line= Iowa -7.5
I took this at Iowa -7, Line movement suggests I did this one right

Southern Utah vs. CS Northridge
Grease King line = Northridge - 10.8 vegas Line= Northridge -14.5
I took Utah at +14 @+100, +14.5 is priced @-109

[Grease King]

anyone have a stream for the Massachusetts game? All I can do right now is monitor the score

[chalutes84]

Mac-sports is streaming The umass and iupuifw games

[Grease King]

Thanks Chalutes! It says it's not available outside the US, looks like its proxy time.

[Grease King]

Last nights Results

Game	Pick	Dollars Bet	To Win	Win	Loss	Units Won	Dollars Won
Massachusetts @ Eastern Michigan	Massachusetts -5	5.3	5	1		1	5
Miami-Ohio @ IUPU-Fort Wayne	IPFW -2	5	5.15		1	-1	-5
Belmont @ Middle Tenn St	Belmont +7	5.15	5	1		1	5
Notre Dame @ Iowa	Iowa -7	4.36	4		1	-0.872	-4.36
Southern Utah @ C S Northridge	Southern Utah +14	5	5		1	-1	-5
	Total:	24.81	24.15	2	3	-0.872	-4.36

Thread results to date

Total Wins	Total Losses	Net Units	Net Dollars
2	3	-0.872	-4.36
Win %=	40

[Grease King]

Day 2

Dec-04

Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Bradley vs. IUPUI Bradley -11.5 5 5.15 Drexel vs. Cleveland State Drexel -6.5 5.3 5 George Washington vs. Rutgers George Washington -9.5 7.42 7 Marist vs. Iona Iona -18.5 5.05 5 Evansville vs. Murray State Evansville ML 4.04 4 Davidson vs. Charlotte U Charlotte U -8.5 5.5 5 Maryland vs. Ohio State Ohio -10.5 5.3 5 Pennsylvania @ Villanova Villanova -17.5 5.3 5 Wisconsin vs. Virginia Wisconsin +4.5 5.3 5 Detroit U vs. Toledo Detroit U +9.5 5.1 5 CS Fullerton vs. Pepperdine Pepperdine -5 5.35 5 Eastern Illinois vs. Western Illinois Western Illinois -1.5 Total: 58.66 56.15 0 0 0 0

Almost every pick for tonight is on a favorite - points. That always makes me nervous. Lets see how it turns out

[Grease King]

Today I was getting very unusual results for the first time. I hope these plays hit so I don't start off the thread cold. The plays I am most confident in are: Ohio, George Washington, Iona (now -17 not -18.5), Villanova, and Bradley.

Again, got unusual results today, hopefully things work out better than they did yesterday. This is a much bigger card than I usually play. Even more games than posted came up as plays today which never happens.

[Grease King]

Another not so good night to start the thread...

Game	Pick	Dollars Bet	To Win	Win	Loss	Units Won	Dollars Won
Bradley vs. IUPUI	Bradley -11.5	5	5.15		1	-1	-5
Drexel vs. Cleveland State	Drexel -6.5	5.3	5		1	-1.06	-5.3
George Washington vs. Rutgers	George Washington -9.5	7.42	7		1	-1.484	-7.42
Marist vs. Iona	Iona -18.5	5.05	5		1	-1.01	-5.05
Evansville vs. Murray State	Evansville ML	4.04	4		1	-0.808	-4.04
Davidson vs. Charlotte U	Charlotte U -8.5	5.5	5		1	-1.1	-5.5
Maryland vs. Ohio State	Ohio -10.5	5.3	5	1		1	5
Pennsylvania @ Villanova	Villanova -17.5	5.3	5	1		1	5
Wisconsin vs. Virginia	Wisconsin +4.5	5.3	5	1		1	5
Detroit U vs. Toledo	Detroit U +9.5	5.1	5		1	-1.02	-5.1
CS Fullerton vs. Pepperdine	Pepperdine -5	5.35	5		1	-1.07	-5.35
Eastern Illinois vs. Western Illinois	Western Illinois -1.5	5.6	5	1		1	5
	Total:	64.26	61.15	4	8	-4.552	-22.76

Thread to date

Total Wins Total Losses Net Units Net Dollars 6 11 -5.424 -27.12 Win %= 35.2941176

I started this thread with an active 73% win rate going, so I knew it was due to dip. Here's to turning things around!

[Grease King]

Day 3

Dec-05

Game	Pick	Dollars Bet	To Win	Win	Loss	Units Won	Dollars Won
Mississippi vs. Kansas	Mississippi +2	5.9	5
Rider vs. Monmouth	Monmouth +3	5.3	5

[Grease King]

ANOTHER BAD DAY LAST NIGHT! Consider fading me, since my loss rate is now impressive haha

Game	Pick	Dollars Bet	To Win	Win	Loss	Units Won	Dollars Won
Mississippi vs. Kansas	Mississippi +2	5.9	5		1	-1.18	-5.9
Rider vs. Monmouth	Monmouth +3	5.3	5		1	-1.06	-5.3
	Total:	11.2	10	0	2	-2.24	-11.2

Thread to date

Total Wins	Total Losses	Net Units	Net Dollars
6	14	-7.664	-42.32
Win %=	30

[CommunistKevin]

Keep going dont give up

[Grease King]

Day 4

Dec 06

Game	Pick	Dollars Bet	To Win	Win	Loss	Units Won	Dollars Won
fairfield vs. quinippiac	quin -7.5	5.5	5
California vs. Cal Santa Barbara	Cal Santa +3	11	10
South Carolina vs. Oklahoma State	Oklahoma -16.5	6.6	6
	Total:	17.6	16	0	0	0	0

I don't like the oklahoma play as much as I do the other two. I kind of knew I would hit a losing streak as soon as I started posting plays to the public

[Grease King]

Day 4:results

Game	Pick	Dollars Bet	To Win	Win	Loss	Units Won	Dollars Won
fairfield vs. quinippiac	quin -7.5	5.5	5		1	-1.1	-5.5
California vs. Cal Santa Barbara	Cal Santa +3	11	10	1		2	10
South Carolina vs. Oklahoma State	Oklahoma -16.5	6.6	6	1		1.2	6
	Total:	23.1	21	2	1	2.1	10.5

Finally a winning day. Gonna take a week or so to turn this thread around

[Grease King]

Day 5

Dec-07

Game	Pick	Dollars Bet	To Win	Win	Loss	Units Won	Dollars Won
Northern Iowa vs. Iowa State	Iowa State -11	5	5.15
North Dakota vs. Butler	Butler -11.5	5.4	5
Central Michigan vs. SIU Edwardsville	Central Michigan +2.5	10.6	10
Nevada vs. UC Davis	Nevada -3	5	5
	Total:	26	25.15	0	0	0	0

I have already missed tons of value games today, busy with real life

[Grease King]

Game	Pick	Dollars Bet	To Win
Jacksonville state vs. florida state	Florida -20	5.45	5
Boston College vs. USC	USC pk	5.3	5
E. Washington vs. Saint Marys CA	Mary -14	5.3	5
Illinois vs. Auburn	Illinois -8	5.1	5

[Grease King]

Day 5: results

Game	Pick	Dollars Bet	To Win	Win	Loss	Units Won	Dollars Won
Northern Iowa vs. Iowa State	Iowa State -11	5	5.15		1	-1	-5
North Dakota vs. Butler	Butler -11.5	5.4	5	1		1	5
Central Michigan vs. SIU Edwardsville	Central Michigan +2.5	10.6	10	1		2	10
Nevada vs. UC Davis	Nevada -3	5	5	1		1	5
	Total:	26	25.15	3	1	4	15

First proper winning day in a while, count it. I'm at 60% on the season in my entire excel, but still below 50 on the thread.

Thread to date:

Total Wins	Total Losses	Net Units	Net Dollars
11	16	-1.564	-16.82
Win %=	40.7407407

[Grease King]

Day 6: Results

Game	Pick	Dollars Bet	To Win	Win	Loss	Units Won	Dollars Won
Jacksonville state vs. florida state	Florida -20	5.45	5	1		1	5
Boston College vs. USC	USC pk	5.3	5	1		1	5
E. Washington vs. Saint Marys CA	Mary -14	5.3	5	1		1	5
Illinois vs. Auburn	Illinois -8	5.1	5	1		1	5
	Total:	21.15	20	4	0	4	20

Finally a perfect day. Well on the way to going over 50%. Profitable due to winning the bigger bets.

Thread to date:

Total Wins	Total Losses	Net Units	Net Dollars
15	16	2.436	7.18
Win %=	48.3870968

[Grease King]

Day 7

Dec-09

Only one pick today.

Fair Dickinson vs. Iowa : Iowa -30 $6.43 to win $6

I have them capped to win by about 35. Big spreads like this always make me nervous since the effect of calculation errors or false presumptions can become exaggerated. Consider taking this pick just for the first half, since the practice squad may get some playtime when Iowa is absolutely destroying at the half.

[Grease King]

If anyone is thinking about taking Notre Dame (and lots are), keep in mind I felt the opening line of 13 points was pretty damn sharp. The fact that its moved all the way to -14.5 is almost enough for me to take Bryant + points. If I can get Bryant +16 or so in game, I will probably take it as a side bet to this thread.

[Grease King]

I've got Bryant +16.5

Let's get the $$$

[Grease King]

Day 7: Results

One game played, one 6 dollar win. This win takes the thread to .500 for the first time

Game	Pick	Dollars Bet	To Win	Win	Loss	Units Won	Dollars Won
F Dickson vs. Iowa	Iowa -30	6.43	6	1		1.2	6
	Total:	6.43	6	1	0	1.2	6

Thread To Date. I fixed an accounting error, thread is over .500 prior to day 8

Total Wins	Total Losses	Net Units	Net Dollars
16	15	3.636	13.18
Win %=	51.6129032

Also got the bonus win on Bryant +16.5, but that was not included in the pre game picks

[Grease King]

Day 8

Dec-10

Game	Pick	Dollars Bet	To Win	Win	Loss	Units Won	Dollars Won
South Dakota State vs. Minnesota U	Minnesota U -15.5	5.15	5
Dartmouth vs. Illinois	Illinois -16	15.75	15
Bradley vs. IPFW	IPFW +5.5	5.3	5
Gonzaga vs. West Virginia	Gonzaga -2	5.6	5
	Total:	31.8	30	0	0	0	0

The only pick I have some confidence in is Illinois -16, and maybe Gonzaga -2

[Grease King]

Also look in to taking Minnesota U -16 over South Dakota state. NJIT +15 or more over Seton Hall as an in game bet may be worth your time. Arkansas Little Rock +11.5 or more would be a good in game bet. None of these are tracked plays, just my picks if you are looking for more action

[Grease King]

Day 8: Results

3-1 tonight, but Illinois just didn't feel like playing in the second half! Everything else hit though. Minnesota U covering by half a point was a nail biter.

Game	Pick	Dollars Bet	To Win	Win	Loss	Units Won	Dollars Won
South Dakota State vs. Minnesota U	Minnesota U -15.5	5.15	5	1			5
Dartmouth vs. Illinois	Illinois -16	15.75	15		1		-15.75
Bradley vs. IPFW	IPFW +5.5	5.3	5	1			5
Gonzaga vs. West Virginia	Gonzaga -2	5.6	5	1			5
	Total:	31.8	30	3	1	0	-0.75

Thread to date

Total Wins	Total Losses	Net Units	Net Dollars
19	16	3.636	12.43
Win %=	54.2857143

[Grease King]

Day 9

Dec-11

Unless some of the lines get to moving, there are only two plays for tonight.

Game	Pick	Dollars Bet	To Win	Win	Loss	Units Won	Dollars Won
Penn State vs. Duquesne	Penn State-7	10.2	10
Princeton vs. Rutgers	Princeton -3.5	10.9	10
	Total:	21.1	20	0	0	0	0

Wisconsin -17 could be good, but there was too much deviation in my calculations for me to trust the numbers I got. Princeton was available at -3 earlier today, but I didn't jump on it :/. I'm pretty busy with real life stuff so probably won't get to watch much tonight! Have a beer for me guys

[irish1]

[fitguy67]

nice thread u got here GK...

[Grease King]

Day 9: Results

Just ripped an ENORMOUS BOWL OF KUSH after this insanely long day. I'm still probably going to study all night, gotta get my business education in too. Hope people actually read the shit I write

Two bets, two wins. Played 2 units not because the calculations indicated value, but just because I've been working hard and decided to get a little more excitement today. Could only monitor the scores while working at my computer, no live footage i.e zero idea what happened... The thread has turned around a little quicker than I thought

Game	Pick	Dollars Bet	To Win	Win	Loss	Units Won	Dollars Won
Penn State vs. Duquesne	Penn State-7	10.2	10	1		2	10
Princeton vs. Rutgers	Princeton -3.5	10.9	10	1		2	10
	Total:	21.1	20	2	0	4	20

Thread to date

Total Wins	Total Losses	Net Units	Net Dollars
21	16	7.486	32.43
Win %=	56.7567568

My entire excel for this whole season (started before this thread) is just under 66%. If the two win rates could gradually reach about 60% each by the end of the season, I would call my techniques a success(this is my first attempt at handicapping in my life).

I'm saving up all my pay cheques so I can have a proper bank roll for next season (presuming I do finish above 55% ATS). Betting 5 dollars and 10 dollars is pretty insignificant. I'm going to save up 30k+ so I can comfortably bankroll 10k and switch to 100 dollar units.

Anyways I'm gonna stop rambling now. Feel free to post guys