TK NCAA Hoops 2013/2014

[Tommy Karate]

Nice hit for us on K-State. They were the right play. Ole Miss is trash.


I agree on Baylor tomorrow night.

kentucky more of a play come feb/march...i watched their game the other day. very raw...

[No coincidences]

i dont even know what to say or do.....do i start playing the spread which hasnt produced in the past? i have the money to lose maybe another 100u before i get into funds that are not meant for this shit.

Up until about 2-3 years ago, oddsmakers set their own lines. Then KenPom got really popular, and I noticed his numbers suddenly began to mirror almost every side and total Vegas posted.

From that point on, the plays like Viriginia over Wisconsin became meaningless, because oddsmakers seem to be simply copying KenPom's conclusions for their lines and nothing more. Now why they wanted to open themselves up to getting buried on games like that one -- offering a Top-10 team at +4 and +165 on the road against an unranked opponent -- I have no idea, but the unranked home favorite theory simply isn't working or cashing anymore.

I was just talking to a buddy of mine who used to light his bookie up with these auto plays. He's losing his ass with them now, and the only difference we can see from years past is KenPom.

Just my take. Vegas is definitely paying the price for blindly following his lead on plays like this one, that's for sure.

[Tommy Karate]

Up until about 2-3 years ago, oddsmakers set their own lines. Then KenPom got really popular, and I noticed his numbers suddenly began to mirror almost every side and total Vegas posted.

From that point on, the plays like Viriginia over Wisconsin became meaningless, because oddsmakers seem to be simply copying KenPom's conclusions for their lines and nothing more. Now why they wanted to open themselves up to getting buried on games like that one -- offering a Top-10 team at +4 and +165 on the road against an unranked opponent -- I have no idea, but the unranked home favorite theory simply isn't working or cashing anymore.

I was just talking to a buddy of mine who used to light his bookie up with these auto plays. He's losing his ass with them now, and the only difference we can see from years past is KenPom.

Just my take. Vegas is definitely paying the price for blindly following his lead on plays like this one, that's for sure.

last year, the unranked home favorite angle (when playing the moneyline) was insane. ATS it was around 50%. Yes there were a few big losses, but net/net still a very profitable angle. Even more profitable when the public backs the ranked road dog at 51% or better. My plan is 10u and 5u if im on the public unranked fav.

its very early, and these plays are 2-3 on the year. problem is, 2 of the losses were on a 190 and 300 fav.

i have to stick with it. i'm committed - but thanks for the insight coiner.

getting back in the ring soon?

[Tommy Karate]

Friday 12.6

(4u) Oklahoma St -17.5
(4u) Baylor +3.5

ughh...terrible job by me here. 16.5 and 4 now available. hopefully it doesnt matter.

[No coincidences]

last year, the unranked home favorite angle (when playing the moneyline) was insane. ATS it was around 50%. Yes there were a few big losses, but net/net still a very profitable angle. Even more profitable when the public backs the ranked road dog at 51% or better. My plan is 10u and 5u if im on the public unranked fav.

its very early, and these plays are 2-3 on the year. problem is, 2 of the losses were on a 190 and 300 fav.

i have to stick with it. i'm committed - but thanks for the insight coiner.

getting back in the ring soon?

It still makes sense on paper; if Vegas doesn't adjust, they'll lose their ass because obviously everyone and their grandmother is going to slam a ranked dog against an unranked opponent. I just hope for your sake it happens sooner rather than later. I don't know if it will be all that profitable anymore though. Want to see you succeed with this instead of just breaking even (at best). Good luck.

And no, not anytime soon. The idea is to eventually, maybe, jump back in enough to make some big isolated bets. Try to pick and choose my spots. I have a feeling my high-volume days are over, though -- at least until baseball season.

[Tommy Karate]

It still makes sense on paper; if Vegas doesn't adjust, they'll lose their ass because obviously everyone and their grandmother is going to slam a ranked dog against an unranked opponent. I just hope for your sake it happens sooner rather than later. I don't know if it will be all that profitable anymore though. Want to see you succeed with this instead of just breaking even (at best). Good luck.

And no, not anytime soon. The idea is to eventually, maybe, jump back in enough to make some big isolated bets. Try to pick and choose my spots. I have a feeling my high-volume days are over, though -- at least until baseball season.

what do you think will be plays tomorrow? im thinking mizzou will be favored but not sure by how much. what do you think?

[mlb]

ughh...terrible job by me here. 16.5 and 4 now available. hopefully it doesnt matter.

4u plays here??? ... u dont think kentucky has revenge on their mind?

[plekz]

TommyK: You are aware that the KY v Bay game is played on neutral turf right?

[Tommy Karate]

4u plays here??? ... u dont think kentucky has revenge on their mind?

yeah, got a little aggressive off a good night. nah, im more of a revenge guy same year, or if an embrassing loss. 9 point loss in a december game doesnt mean much to me.

TommyK: You are aware that the KY v Bay game is played on neutral turf right?

i did not.....i still like baylor though. kentucky is very raw. i think most of their top guys are still freshmen.

[plekz]

If Cherry has an off night the Harris brothers & Randle will trample Baylor, i stayed away from that game all together. But BOL man.

[Tommy Karate]

Friday 12.6

(4u) Oklahoma St -17.5
(4u) Baylor +3.5

(1u) Pitt -22

[Tommy Karate]

(1u) UCSB +3.5

[Tommy Karate]

Saturday 12.7

(15u) Missouri -120 (T5)

[Tommy Karate]

(5u) Buffalo -2.5 (T1)

[Tommy Karate]

(10u) Colorado +2 (T5)

[Tommy Karate]

(5u) New Mexico -6 (T1)

[mlb]

Lets go coloradoooooo

[mlb]

Missed new mexico .. wasn't tracking while out .. good start to the day

[Tommy Karate]

Missed new mexico .. wasn't tracking while out .. good start to the day

did you get down on buffalo?

[strictlyogkush]

Good job tommy I was waiting for one of those 15unit plays to hit

[Tommy Karate]

the amount of missed free throws by colorado is insane - and great foul shooters as well.

[strictlyogkush]

Yeah I know I'm on buff for full game and buff 2nd half they shouldn't even have a chance at the game winner

[Tommy Karate]

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!

[strictlyogkush]

Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Exxpresso]

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!

Nice

[strictlyogkush]

Someone needs to ban pattore he ruins everyone's thread

[Tommy Karate]

(2u) N. Dakota +11.5 (T4)
(1u) Iowa St -10

[Tommy Karate]

(2u) SIU Edwardsville -2.5

[Tommy Karate]

(5u) Cal Poly -5.5 (T1)

[Tommy Karate]

(1u) S. Dakota + 9.5

[Tommy Karate]

(2u) UC Davis +2.5 (T2)
(2u) Portland St +3.5 (T2)

[Tommy Karate]

Sunday 12.8

(10u) Ole Miss -125 (T5)

[plekz]

That a system play or yours?

[Tommy Karate]

That a system play or yours?

angle, not system....ha

yeah, i love backing unranked home favorites...will reduce play to 5u if the public is on ole miss at tip...

[Tommy Karate]

(2u) Washington +11.5 (T4)