well, the trends from NO point to the home team, as they have beaten the blazers the last 4 in NO by 13ppg. but with no chandler for no, thats a big advantage for a *big* portland team. no won in port last meeting and i expect the blazers to return the favor and take this one outright to even the season series at 2-2. i was close to playing this myself, but just gonna stick with the 2 i like a little better (phx, gs)
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i took the points and portComment -
Hey guys..I was leaning towards taking New Orleans..thinking this isnt a good play?Comment -
Good Morning Gentlemen,
I'm back in the saddle again after receiving a little discipline from the mod's from my behavior a few days ago. Looks like a few of us got written up. TIME TO GET BACK TO BUSINSESS!
Davidson now listed with a $1,000 first half moneyline at BetUs. What are you thoughts on this?
First Half
Davidson -11 -110 ML -1000
Here are the 1st Quarter Percentages for tonights NBA games
best 1Q plays according to season avg's are:
(Team @ 1st Q percentage Difference w/tonights oppenent & 1st Q Point Diff avg w/ tonights oppenent)
Spurs @ 26% & +3.9
Lakers @ 19% & 2.1
Suns @ 11 & 2.9
Magic @ 11% & 2.6
(injuries, home court, day of the week and shoe size have not been taken into consideration regarding these numbers. They are strictly this years averages based on games and stats are provided by 82games.com)
Peace and May God bless you
JP
I think that the way you calculate the possibilities (by subtracting) is totally wrong.
for example, the possibility for SA to win GS in the 1stQ is:
possibility of SA win(0.60) * possibility of GS loss(1-0.34)=
possibility of SA win(0.60) * possibility of GS loss(0.66)= 0.396
which means that the possibility of SA winning this particular 1stQ is 39.6%
correct me if i am mistaken!Comment -
i like port+3 to avengeComment -
Hey CK, I tried sending you a PM but your box is full. Is there any other way to contact you?Comment -
take memphis +5 at washington.Comment -
I had the game capped at -2 so i think the line is inflated because of the road losing streakComment -
I think I am going to have a wager on the warriors at +5 (buying the half point). As has been pointed out by CK the Spurs have trouble with these run and gun youngsters running up and down the court particularly on the road and with Ellis now up to pretty much full speed they will only get better. They haven't been putting up the points of old but I really don't think the Spurs will have the desire to play that hard and shut down on D with Denver up tomorrow.
I am also adding Iona -1.0 , purely through reading and trawling the boards liking the writeups I am reading.Comment -
i say that over hits in the suns game...any opinions?Comment -
ger25pic25,
the numbers I posted are from the website at 82games.com. Check that out when you can.
I'm not giving odds on them winning the first quarter I am simply providing the differences between the 2 teams so far this year regarding 1st quarters. By taking the team with the largest 1Q difference I have won many bets so far this season.
I'm not sure how to make it any clearer than that. I am not a super math guy so I'm not sure what your getting at with your equations but if you say that SA is only 39.6% to win the first quarter then by default you are saying that they are 60.4% to lose the first quarter which doesnt seem right when you look at the seasons numbers so far. They win the first quarter 26% more than the Warriors and they avg 3.9 more points then the Warriors in the 1st Q. Thats enough for me to see who should win the 1st Q.
Maybe solobass can help with this.Comment -
PORTLAND is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.Comment -
Good to know khaliagentComment -
PHOENIX is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this seasonComment -
New Orleans is the strongest play for me tonight..half and full game. I hope your stats show this is a good decision!Comment -
PHOENIX is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season
PHOENIX is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
looks like they got em every which way...i lean towards sacramento
UTAH is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in home games after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) as an underdog this season
CHARLOTTE is 3-2 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons CHARLOTTE is 3-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in February games over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons
WI-GREEN BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home lined games this season
KANSAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons
BAYLOR is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last 3 seasons.BAYLOR is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons
NIAGARA is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NIAGARA is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NIAGARA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NIAGARA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NIAGARA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NIAGARA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasonsComment -
Im already locked in
Lakers -6
Suns-13
Orlando-7
Davidson -19.5
Went with four today more than the usual. These bets look to easy, and you know it never is........ I hope its a good day.
GL everyone!!!!!!!Comment -
khailgent - are you kidding right now? we can all obtain trends very easily and most def dont need to have pages and pages of trends. if you feel the need to share this info, why not make 1 post?Comment -
Cocknocker,
Xaviers starting point guard is out tonight. Does that change your play?Comment -
khailgent, come on man! We dont need this info but put it all in 1 post if you have to. COME ON have some respect will you!Comment -
I won't play Viagra again this year. Forget the ATS,these guys don't close the deal.Comment -
and this one makes no sense at all. read the last sentence. do they cover after their 3rd loss or not. it can't be 3 or more. it's 3 or notOriginally posted by khaliagentComment -
I can already see this thread isn't going to survive the night. Would anyone like to take a gamble on the Over/Under for reported posts in this thread just since noon today?
Uncle Willie was hoping for a very quiet, post-Super Bowl Monday. Let's try to help him realize his dreams. Thanks.Comment -
khil, if that's what you consider contributing i'll have to pass on your contributionsComment -
Uncle Willie says, "Use the ignore button." It really is that easy.Comment -
Thanks Nonsense.........I wasn't sure if the linesmakers try to make adjustments if a certain team keeps killing them like the Cavs at home. So your saying they focus more on the game at hand rather than being affected by a team's ATS record then, right?
Thanks for your feedback.Comment -
correct lemonComment -
FYI - Regarding Anthony Nelson...Niagara point guard and team leader in assists...will be suspended for today's game per NCAA rules...
Niagara's Anthony Nelson punched Manhattan's Patrick Bouli in the stomach with little over a minute remaining vs Manhattan. Nelson was charged with a flagrant foul and was ejected, while Bouli received a technical foul. Under NCAA rules, Nelson will be suspended one gameComment
