CK is Carjacking the NCAA Threads Day 3

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #141
    maddog

    The line movement on this game is somewhat off kilter, as 67% of bettors are on Central, and the line fell from 13 to 12, wich is significant in the fact that it dropped back onto the nearest key number. However the power rankings have Central winning by 17, and so it must be so that they will blow them out in all likelihood. But what i don't like is that UCF actually gives up more points (67) than SMU(64.5), and also the fact that Central has won 3 games in a row (which you know I never like). SMU has lost 2 straight by a combined number of 9. I think that there are some better games out there to wager on tonight.
    Comment
    • maddogmadden86
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 11-08-08
      • 898

      #142
      yea the only thing i didnt like was the point diffentials away.home and last 5, i see it being a blowout too but i'm going to lay off it
      Comment
      • solobass
        SBR MVP
        • 01-15-09
        • 1277

        #143
        Originally posted by cocknocker
        lambogb,

        No some of the criteria wasn't there for it to be a Secret Play, but 75% of the factors were there for it to be one, so I rolled with it when I factored in a few filters on this game. West Virginia is hell bent on taking the Big East by storm this year, and Bob Huggins is off the sauce and has his boys playing out of their minds. The more I dig into the college game, the more I am beginning to like the Big East. Matter of fact tomorrow I am playing another Big East game and also one on Saturday. So it looks as if that is the conference for me
        quick update, i have been working my theory and running numbers for almost 2 days straight and not playing many games. this has the potential to be far more profitable than any plays or capping i could have done. that being said, the west virginia game would be a play given my current data set and conclusions. 1st H ML is 32% of game ML and 1st H is -9.5 all gravy. tomorrow i will have a lot of data to present, and there are a lot of games on the board tonight that test the limits of what i have.
        Comment
        • Pick'nParlays
          SBR MVP
          • 02-22-08
          • 3134

          #144
          secret plays?
          Comment
          • Dana4U
            SBR Sharp
            • 10-28-08
            • 375

            #145
            Georgetown Jitters

            CK - I am really nervous about laying down serious scratch on GTown again. Those whores have really pissed me off of lately - same with ND. Why are you hitting these whores so hard given their recent track record?

            Originally posted by cocknocker
            fusion,

            put $300.00 on your wagers and put $30.00 on the moneyline for the opposing side's moneyline especially if the moneyline is anything over +200. Be slow and methodical in your approach, and never give away your vigorish to the book without making an attempt to make it work for you.

            As far as my wager is concerned, when i am playing NBA BIG means roughly $1500.00 and HEAVY means $3000.00 or more. In this case since I am limiting my wagers on this college experiment, today I am putting a dime on each of these plays, but $1300 on Texas A&M because of the vigorish (-130) involved with buying a point to get under the key number. On my first half plays for G-Town and A&M I am putting $200.00 and on W.Virginia I am putting up $300.00 for a nice tidy sum of 3 dimes put up for the day, which is enough!
            Comment
            • Dexter
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 12-24-08
              • 25829

              #146
              Originally posted by solobass
              quick update, i have been working my theory and running numbers for almost 2 days straight and not playing many games. this has the potential to be far more profitable than any plays or capping i could have done. that being said, the west virginia game would be a play given my current data set and conclusions. 1st H ML is 32% of game ML and 1st H is -9.5 all gravy. tomorrow i will have a lot of data to present, and there are a lot of games on the board tonight that test the limits of what i have.
              update us tomorrow solobass.
              Comment
              • Dana4U
                SBR Sharp
                • 10-28-08
                • 375

                #147
                Dexter - you really think Boston can cover the spread tonight? I ended up playing them in the 1st half at -9.5, but I'm concerned about the 16 on the total game. Also took Portland and Toronto tonight.
                Comment
                • cocknocker
                  Restricted User
                  • 11-06-08
                  • 8001

                  #148
                  Dana4U,

                  It's all about situations. The Hoyas were in a good situation to get the cover in the last game wherein they promptly gave away my money. But I have learned over the years to latch onto teams when their stock is low (see Boston this year) and the Hoyas have a big game against Marquette on Saturday, and I think that this game is being used as a tuneup. Marquette has been getting fat off playing teams with absolutely no defense, which is the Hoyas strong suit. The Hoyas problem is on the offensive end where they think that htey can shoot threes when in reality they really can't hit the side of a barn. Cincy is not a good team but Georgetown is a good team that is underperforming. This isn't exactly chase betting but in practice it kind of is because after this game i am also taking them against Marquette because the linemaker will take advantage of public perception and mess around and give the Hoyas too many points....
                  Comment
                  • cocknocker
                    Restricted User
                    • 11-06-08
                    • 8001

                    #149
                    Play it light if you are having anxiety over them fumbling round with your money. I for one am pounding them in two consecutive games and then I'm letting up off of them, and watching the Rutgers chain. Rutgers upsets Seton Hall tomorrow, then I go against Rutgers in their following game. I am going to catch the rhytym and ride the wave.
                    Comment
                    • Dexter
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 12-24-08
                      • 25829

                      #150
                      Originally posted by Dana4U
                      Dexter - you really think Boston can cover the spread tonight? I ended up playing them in the 1st half at -9.5, but I'm concerned about the 16 on the total game. Also took Portland and Toronto tonight.
                      yeah - if sac would have gotten hammered last night, then i would have likely only made a normal size play on boston (keep riding the streak) - but the fact that they played a close game leads me to believe tonight is the night they get drilled. i cant see them playing both the celts and cavs tough on btb nights.
                      Comment
                      • Dexter
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 12-24-08
                        • 25829

                        #151
                        booked plays-

                        celtics -17 (big)
                        raptors -2
                        blazers -11.5 (big)
                        Comment
                        • UndersSuck
                          SBR Hustler
                          • 12-16-08
                          • 86

                          #152
                          NBA

                          Last 10 ATS

                          Memphis 0-10
                          OKC 7-3

                          OKC (-7) hasnt been this much of a home Fav all season.

                          I feel like I missed the OKC bandwagon....is it too late??
                          Comment
                          • adamloses
                            Restricted User
                            • 01-23-09
                            • 37

                            #153
                            Ohio -4
                            Tulane +1

                            For the record..

                            Even put a bunch on CK's g-town pick.. I must admit, I think it's a good bet..

                            Went 1-1 yesterday ( know were not having a challenge but just in case you man up and change your mind)
                            Comment
                            • PBVETTE
                              SBR Rookie
                              • 12-03-08
                              • 18

                              #154
                              DEXTER,can you please post BET A plays for february.thanks
                              Comment
                              • ANDYW15
                                SBR MVP
                                • 07-28-08
                                • 1254

                                #155
                                Originally posted by ANDYW15
                                Love the Man City/Newcastle over 2.5 pick and with you on West Ham. Hull have not been playing great recently whereas West Ham are turning things around. Not sure I can lock into the Liverpool pick, away at Wigan is a tough game but they should win. I am also going to take a small punt on Chelsea team total over 2.5.

                                I am also playing Cardiff City at away to Coventry (at +160) in the Championship.

                                GL
                                3-1 on the soccer picks tonight. Some nice money to play with tonight now.
                                Comment
                                • Dexter
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 12-24-08
                                  • 25829

                                  #156
                                  Originally posted by PBVETTE
                                  DEXTER,can you please post BET A plays for february.thanks
                                  i'll pm you the info - the higher ups around here want no more mention of the system

                                  give me a day or 2 - catching up on my fantasy baseball homework!
                                  Comment
                                  • ANDYW15
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 07-28-08
                                    • 1254

                                    #157
                                    Originally posted by Dexter
                                    i'll pm you the info - the higher ups around here want no more mention of the system

                                    give me a day or 2 - catching up on my fantasy baseball homework!
                                    can't wait for fantasy MLB!
                                    Comment
                                    • Dana4U
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 10-28-08
                                      • 375

                                      #158
                                      Celtics Plays

                                      Thanks for the response. What's your thoughts on Boston 1Q and 1H bets?

                                      Originally posted by Dexter
                                      booked plays-

                                      celtics -17 (big)
                                      raptors -2
                                      blazers -11.5 (big)
                                      Comment
                                      • nonsense48
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-15-08
                                        • 2927

                                        #159
                                        Originally posted by dexter
                                        yeah - if sac would have gotten hammered last night, then i would have likely only made a normal size play on boston (keep riding the streak) - but the fact that they played a close game leads me to believe tonight is the night they get drilled. I cant see them playing both the celts and cavs tough on btb nights.
                                        zactly dex. Let's get 'em buddy
                                        Comment
                                        • Dana4U
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 10-28-08
                                          • 375

                                          #160
                                          Georgetown Play

                                          OK - I follow what you are saying and will lay down the scratch on GTown tonight. If they lose, then I will really being calling them some nasty names .... ones that make "whores" look outright respectable!!

                                          Originally posted by cocknocker
                                          Dana4U,

                                          It's all about situations. The Hoyas were in a good situation to get the cover in the last game wherein they promptly gave away my money. But I have learned over the years to latch onto teams when their stock is low (see Boston this year) and the Hoyas have a big game against Marquette on Saturday, and I think that this game is being used as a tuneup. Marquette has been getting fat off playing teams with absolutely no defense, which is the Hoyas strong suit. The Hoyas problem is on the offensive end where they think that htey can shoot threes when in reality they really can't hit the side of a barn. Cincy is not a good team but Georgetown is a good team that is underperforming. This isn't exactly chase betting but in practice it kind of is because after this game i am also taking them against Marquette because the linemaker will take advantage of public perception and mess around and give the Hoyas too many points....
                                          Comment
                                          • bumppinee
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 07-22-08
                                            • 361

                                            #161
                                            lets go you whores of Georgetown, these ****ers owe me money also.
                                            Comment
                                            • chipper13101
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 04-27-08
                                              • 405

                                              #162
                                              A word of caution on the Georgetown game. Both the Sagarin and Pomeroy rating systems rank Cincinatti well above Seton Hall. And we all know what Seton Hall did to Georgetown under similar circumstances. So I'll be a spectator on that Georgetown action until they can prove they can actually win games. As always, do your own due diligence. BOL.
                                              Comment
                                              • PBVETTE
                                                SBR Rookie
                                                • 12-03-08
                                                • 18

                                                #163
                                                thanks dexter
                                                Comment
                                                • Dexter
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 12-24-08
                                                  • 25829

                                                  #164
                                                  Originally posted by Dana4U
                                                  Thanks for the response. What's your thoughts on Boston 1Q and 1H bets?
                                                  i havent started to dive into 1st qtr/halve plays yet - seek out the advice of cheesehead - he's a wiz with that shit.

                                                  i do know that boston has been a dominant 1st qtr team - someone posted a solid link recently in one of ck's threads, which gave great data on this.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Dexter
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 12-24-08
                                                    • 25829

                                                    #165
                                                    Originally posted by PBVETTE
                                                    thanks dexter
                                                    pm me by saturday in case i forget...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • cocknocker
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 11-06-08
                                                      • 8001

                                                      #166
                                                      adamloses,

                                                      I manned up a long time ago, about 23 years ago to be exact when I left my moma's house to go off to college. When you get to 250 posts give me a ring and then I will give you what you ask for. Your behavior and greenness to the threads and my want for more credible and accomplished competition disqualified you from that privilege. As I stated before, I only take on the bosses. This is not a slight to you in any way. It's just policy.

                                                      Keep on doing good work and making excellent picks. As always your contributions to this thread are always welcome.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • jaymac82980
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-08-09
                                                        • 3416

                                                        #167
                                                        I'm going big on celts 1st half -9. At home, destroying people lately, couple nights rested vs a sac team that took all they had to keep close with clevland last night. I don't like the game, if boston goes up, they could let go in the 4th and give a chance for the backdoor cover. Of course they could win by 30 as well, but given recent play, I am more comfortable playing the celts 1st half.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Hanger
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-25-09
                                                          • 2115

                                                          #168
                                                          LOCKED

                                                          Georgetown -5.5
                                                          South Carolina -6
                                                          Pitt -3.5
                                                          James Madison -1 (RLM) but was in it before it went to a pk, still love em here!

                                                          NHL-

                                                          Buff Over 5.5

                                                          Leaning-
                                                          ANA +1.5 PL
                                                          Boston -9 1st half
                                                          Portland 2H
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Bezerk15
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 01-28-09
                                                            • 192

                                                            #169
                                                            Thank you all for your input...

                                                            I wanted to thank CK and Wild Willy for their input today - saying goodbye to hockey and sticking with NBA/CBB...got a lesson on SP's, much obligied.
                                                            BOL to all tonight - get paid, get laid!

                                                            Because of my recent struggles I'm tailing some picks - ain't going to front on it - but at least going with one of my own JMU pk (it was chatted about, buy you can see my reasons) -

                                                            As for me:
                                                            JMU pk (HUGE)
                                                            Georgetown -5.5 (big)
                                                            Florida -9 1H
                                                            WVU -9 1H
                                                            Celtics -9.5 1H
                                                            2 Team Teaser Celtics -13 and Blazers -7.5

                                                            BOL to all tonight - get paid!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Dexter
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 12-24-08
                                                              • 25829

                                                              #170
                                                              baseball is starting to enter my mind on this snowy wednesday afternoon -

                                                              dexter's baseball tip of the day: play the over when both pitchers are coming off of a 115+ pitching performance. (filter out sabbathia and halladay)
                                                              Comment
                                                              • wangichu
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 11-07-08
                                                                • 946

                                                                #171
                                                                Originally posted by Dexter
                                                                i'll pm you the info - the higher ups around here want no more mention of the system

                                                                give me a day or 2 - catching up on my fantasy baseball homework!
                                                                where do you play your fantasy baseball? I've been doing that for money long before i capped. That's my S***
                                                                Comment
                                                                • nonsense48
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 12-15-08
                                                                  • 2927

                                                                  #172
                                                                  look for the cincy or toledo crowd to not have much of an effect on game due to weather. ice snow just nasty. not much moving around this area.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • maddogmadden86
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 11-08-08
                                                                    • 898

                                                                    #173
                                                                    i'm really tempted to take celtics -5 first quarter i feal they will blow them out in the first like they do to ever team thoughts guys?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Hanger
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-25-09
                                                                      • 2115

                                                                      #174
                                                                      Originally posted by maddogmadden86
                                                                      i'm really tempted to take celtics -5 first quarter i feal they will blow them out in the first like they do to ever team thoughts guys?

                                                                      Been staring at this for the past few minutes myself. I love the play, will probably be a game time decision. Especially with the way Cleve game went last night. Bos should be able to explode it open.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • nonsense48
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 12-15-08
                                                                        • 2927

                                                                        #175
                                                                        article in todays toledo blade and rumors about team being unhappy with coach cross. he uses zero diplomacy with the players. he's a screamer. no class at all with the kids and he wonders why they can't win for him. what a joke.
                                                                        Comment
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