Marquette is a good play

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  • hajune
    SBR High Roller
    • 09-04-07
    • 219

    #1
    Marquette is a good play
    The reasons are many and I will give you some of them but not all of them.
    Maquette's power rating that I use and is very good should have them as a 4 point favorite.
    They are a great travel team and a great underdog team. They have covered over 60% in the past 12 years and nothing is there to suggest they have changed character.
    They are 4-0 when the spread is 3 or less this year. Marquette is at their best in these type games. They are not a good double digit favorite burt a good team to play when supposivly competitive against teams with roughly equal ability.
    They have an excellent point spread record since
    Christmas and seem to be getting stronger !!!
    On the other hand Notre Dame has only covered 2 spreads since early Dec. One was against lowly Depaul , who is one of the ten worse point spread teams in college this year! The other was Georgetown who is mired in a severe slump and N D caught part of that. ND has UNDERACHEIVED all year and is rated 5-7 points better then they are from stats I use. They have lost their last 3 games by about 9 points a game and has been giving up a lot of points doing so. In the last 3 games they have given up an average of 85 points a game . Good teams do not do that.
    Win or lose I feel good about this game . I got +120 odds at Matchbook on them. Hard to believe I got these odds but I will take them.
    Cheers if I win
    If I lose then
  • PittChicGambles
    SBR MVP
    • 01-19-09
    • 1125

    #2
    Im behind you hajune...I put some money on marquette money line and first half point spread..Lets win this!
    Comment
    • patsfan2727
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-28-07
      • 579

      #3
      This game seems WAAAY to easy to me. Can somebody justify why Marquette is a +140 dog? because ND "doesn't lose at home" and they just lost one at home? they already lost to Ohio St. at home a month ago. I need justification here about ND....Marq+3.5 looks good but still deciding on the +140
      Comment
      • MrMonkey
        SBR MVP
        • 11-09-08
        • 2278

        #4
        I know your knowledge is greater then mine and numbers all point to Marq., but I think it is ND's night! Why did coach play starters for 175 minutes against Depaul???? 2 nights removed? Possibly like football coach time management brain freeze on sideline occurred? Why do you have 3-4 assistants? Could be a tight win but crowd should will them to victory? Hopefully by 4+. Good luck!

        MrMonkey
        Comment
        • PittChicGambles
          SBR MVP
          • 01-19-09
          • 1125

          #5
          Pats..go with Marquette...way too good of a team to be that big of an underdog...
          Comment
          • keitht
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 12-06-08
            • 878

            #6
            notre dame has lost one game in three years at home,,, aaa do the math
            Comment
            • keitht
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 12-06-08
              • 878

              #7
              no big men to answer luke and luke
              Comment
              • Ralphie1412
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 01-29-08
                • 13963

                #8
                Irish are 8-0-1 ATS the game after losing 3 consecutive games in a row under coach brey.
                "This is why my basketball intelligence is unmatched on this site. I'm sure there are better cappers but no one can tell you the strategies of most coaches before the game even starts "
                Goat Milk
                Comment
                • PittChicGambles
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-19-09
                  • 1125

                  #9
                  yea..odds are in our favor then...
                  Comment
                  • patsfan2727
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 10-28-07
                    • 579

                    #10
                    Originally posted by keitht
                    notre dame has lost one game in three years at home,,, aaa do the math
                    yo, didn't they lose at home Vs. ohio state this year?
                    Plus Uconn, that is 2 THIS YEAR
                    Comment
                    • PittChicGambles
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-19-09
                      • 1125

                      #11
                      you tell him babe
                      Comment
                      • kroyrunner89
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-25-08
                        • 1191

                        #12
                        how well marquette has covered spreads over the last 12 years has absolutely no bearing on this game. different game, different team, different spread
                        2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                        2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                        2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                        2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                        Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                        Comment
                        • Ralphie1412
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 01-29-08
                          • 13963

                          #13
                          i have never felt better about my irish bet then i do right now, nothing like fading the SBR squares.
                          "This is why my basketball intelligence is unmatched on this site. I'm sure there are better cappers but no one can tell you the strategies of most coaches before the game even starts "
                          Goat Milk
                          Comment
                          • kroyrunner89
                            SBR MVP
                            • 10-25-08
                            • 1191

                            #14
                            and losing on the road to a very subpar tennessee team doesn't exactly mean they're a great travel team
                            2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                            2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                            2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                            2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                            Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                            Comment
                            • PittChicGambles
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-19-09
                              • 1125

                              #15
                              Go marquette!!
                              Comment
                              • pimike
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 03-23-08
                                • 37140

                                #16
                                Comment
                                • hajune
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 09-04-07
                                  • 219

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by PittChicGambles
                                  Im behind you hajune...I put some money on marquette money line and first half point spread..Lets win this!
                                  I am glad you went with them. I give out games to a service I work with and he is letting me post plays this year that I give him. I work hard at handicapping and felt strongly about this play. This was my only play today.
                                  Comment
                                  • Vonnegut
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-08-09
                                    • 1499

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Ralphie1412
                                    i have never felt better about my irish bet then i do right now, nothing like fading the SBR squares.
                                    nice call
                                    Comment
                                    • hajune
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 09-04-07
                                      • 219

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by patsfan2727
                                      This game seems WAAAY to easy to me. Can somebody justify why Marquette is a +140 dog? because ND "doesn't lose at home" and they just lost one at home? they already lost to Ohio St. at home a month ago. I need justification here about ND....Marq+3.5 looks good but still deciding on the +140
                                      I did not get to your reply but my method of playing games when I play the win line is to play about 20-25% of my money on it and the rest on the spread. I got Marquette at +120 and change ( +2 1/2) at Matchbook early in the morning. The line went to -3 1/2 at that point. ND does not have a good enough team this year to substain their home court edge at home . They will lose another or two before it is over.
                                      Comment
                                      • hajune
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 09-04-07
                                        • 219

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by MrMonkey
                                        I know your knowledge is greater then mine and numbers all point to Marq., but I think it is ND's night! Why did coach play starters for 175 minutes against Depaul???? 2 nights removed? Possibly like football coach time management brain freeze on sideline occurred? Why do you have 3-4 assistants? Could be a tight win but crowd should will them to victory? Hopefully by 4+. Good luck!

                                        MrMonkey
                                        I think it is wise to pay attention to long term history from teams like Marquette. They are a cover magnet in this situation and have been for years. Some teams ae great travel teams and some are not. Marquette is a top 10 travel team over the past 20 years. Having said that what they do in the present depends on whether a team has the same demeanor as the past. They do. The counter argument to be made is N D's home prowess. Notre Dame is not the same type team that has been the major part of that big win streak. They have underacheived all year, are young and are a year away from being a major threat.
                                        Comment
                                        • hajune
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 09-04-07
                                          • 219

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by PittChicGambles
                                          Pats..go with Marquette...way too good of a team to be that big of an underdog...
                                          You are right.
                                          Comment
                                          • hajune
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 09-04-07
                                            • 219

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by keitht
                                            notre dame has lost one game in three years at home,,, aaa do the math
                                            I just did. You are off by 1. I have a question for you. If a person flips heads 30 times in a row what are the chances he will flip heads again. Of course it is 50-50. In that case the recent past has nothing to do with the future. Woud you play Notre Dame at home if they were playing the Lakers ? The point I am making is that this is not primary handicapping but secondary. Notre Dame is not the same as they were on the streak. It is important to putthat into your handicapping bag. You can get a lot of value when doing so. Marquette had a whooping 8 point power rating difference over ND and were a hot team playing a cold team. Those are primary factors and the important ones. Please do not take what I said in the wrong way.
                                            Goo luck to you
                                            Comment
                                            • hajune
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 09-04-07
                                              • 219

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Ralphie1412
                                              Irish are 8-0-1 ATS the game after losing 3 consecutive games in a row under coach brey.
                                              That stat is almost meaningless. It falls under trend handicapping. There are many reasons why that happens and is not a primary factor. It falls under a trend and trends will get you into trouble. You must look at like situations and compare them with today's game. If a team has adifferet demeanor as ND has this year that will get in the way of good handicapping. You will get into serious handicapping trouble if you view this as a primary factor.
                                              Good luck to you and do not think take what said in the wrong way.
                                              Comment
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