What's your approach wagering NIT

bubblebuttluv · 03-19-13, 11:48 AM

Well honestly I am biting the bullet and taking KY tonight. I will post my write-up below. I am only taking KY for a small amount at the money line though. I think they are the better team when they are motivated and that is the only thing I am going off of on this play...motivation. I heard on ESPN that KY will be playing in Calipari's hometown tonight. It is the type of situation where the school the game is being played has cancelled night classes so that everyone in the 25,000 person population can try to cram themselves in the 3,000 person stadium so they can welcome Calipari back with open arms. I mean this really does sound like some bad joke, and FYI I can't stand Kentucky or Calipari or his one and done philosophy. But, think about it, do any of these Wildcats want to see their loss tonight and the storming of the court being the top play on Sportscenter tonight? If this team has even an ounce of the pride you need to have as a man in this life, they won't get their a.s.s. kicked tonight. Also this is the last shot the newest crop of "one and done's" has at impressing those all powerful NBA scouts and for a number of players this will be their last B-Ball game ever and this is who they have to play after their terrible season. In the write-up below the Wildcats are losers by the numbers, but I think they come up. If you do roll with me though, I recommend only betting small and only betting moneyline. Also, I wouldn't bet on them any further than this first game in the tourney.

Kentucky:

1. Avg points last 4 games: 57.75
2. Avg points last 4 road games: 77.5
3. Avg 4 home games: 58
4. Avg last 2 meetiings: have not played
5. Avg off rebounds 4: 11
6. Avg rebounds 4: 34.75
7. Avg turnovers 4: 11
8. Avg FG % 4: 39.375
9. Avg 3 FG% 4: 24.15
10. Avg free throw % 4: 56.925
11. Avg points allowed 4: 66.5

Robert Morris:

1. Avg points last 4 games: 73.25
2. Avg points last 4 road games: 71.75
3. Avg 4 home games: 75.25
4. Avg last 2 meetiings: have not played
5. Avg off rebounds 4: 9.75
6. Avg rebounds 4: 27.75
7. Avg turnovers 4: 8.75
8. Avg FG % 4: 42.575
9. Avg 3 FG% 4: 35.325
10. Avg free throw % 4: 68.4
11. Avg points allowed 4: 65.5

KY’s RPI was 57. Robert Morris was 124. KY leads 4 out of 11 categories.

jamt31 · 03-19-13, 12:29 PM

Don't.

RetardStrength · 03-19-13, 01:11 PM

Out of all the NIT games, I think I'd avoid Kentucky before any of the other spots...

Think about it.

Defending NCAA champion. This means a few things. First and foremost, it's embarrassing they are even in the NIT tournament. I'm sorry, but Calipari has struggled to properly motivate and discipline this team all year... You think there is ANY motivation in this spot tonight? They don't want nor care to be there.

On the flip side, you have Robert Morris, WELCOMING the defending NCAA champion. This is like a championship game in this spot. Their crowd, their floor. They will come out extremely motivated to send Kentucky home early and allow them to avoid continued conversation about their existence in the NIT, and not the NCAA tournament.

At this point, I think Kentucky just bows out. They'd rather disappear from this year in college basketball and just start focusing on next year... Teams like this don't typically win nor even do that well in the NIT.

If I make a small wager on this game, which I honestly doubt I will, it would be on Rob Morris..

BOL

Louisvillekid1 · 03-19-13, 01:28 PM

I spot play the NIT, I like to find small schools vs bigger schools that are disappointed (a la FSU tonight)

You can gauge these teams motivation much better after watching them win a game and move on.

GL RS, and as talented of a capper as you are , I'm sure you'll have no problem finding winners.

YouHave2outs · 03-19-13, 01:39 PM

Fade Landers, even just his random thoughts.

Also if NoCoin is chasing, fade away, should be at least 53%

RetardStrength · 03-19-13, 01:42 PM

Yea bud I saw your thoughts on FSU... I like your angle, as usual. I agree with spot betting the NIT. I look for the lines with the most value...

I'm having a hard time not hammering Denver in the NIT tonight

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

I spot play the NIT, I like to find small schools vs bigger schools that are disappointed (a la FSU tonight)

You can gauge these teams motivation much better after watching them win a game and move on.

GL RS, and as talented of a capper as you are , I'm sure you'll have no problem finding winners.

GoBlue77 · 03-19-13, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by YouHave2outs

Fade Landers, even just his random thoughts.

Also if NoCoin is chasing, fade away, should be at least 53%

at least 90%

Crate Mayne · 03-19-13, 02:48 PM

I'm gonna do mostly live play bets so I can get a feel for how the games go before I swoop in to pick sides. Won big last night with +400 Heat and +525 Knicks live plays so I got some nice house money to throw around for the NIT.

RetardStrength · 03-19-13, 05:07 PM

Wyoming -5.5 - 1 Unit

BOL

Poppa K · 03-19-13, 05:32 PM

[QUOTE=RetardStrength;18147052]Wyoming -5.5 - 1 Unit

I Like this.. Im on it BIG

GL all the way thru the bracket!

RetardStrength · 03-19-13, 05:44 PM

Careful how big you go. Early NIT is a crapshoot. On paper wyo does work here but who knows what squad actually shows up. This is my only NIT wager tonight