NCAA Hoops Tracking Thread

[alamo]

NC State/Virginia Under 126

LK, What do you like about this game ? I watched the last NC State and the pace was so fast it made me dizzy. Also they have scored over 78 in 13 of their last 16 games and are in top 10 for both ppg and accuracy. Im a little scared here

[Louisvillekid1]

Virginia's Defense has been fierce at home, and NC State's ppg in conference is inflated since alot of ACC teams like to push the pace. Virginia has the 5th rated Home defense in the nation giving up a ridiculous 47.5 ppg.

Do you remember watching the NC State @ Maryland game? It was 51-50 final and when the Wolfpack get forced to slow down they really struggle. Most of their points come off offensive rebounding from Howell and CJ Leslie's work in the paint in those situations.

When Virginia Played UNC @ home the Final was 61-52 (good to cover this # by 13 points, and we also drilled that game for a nice score) and UNC as you know has a higher pace very but similar to how NC State wants to play. Also, NC State is something crazy like 1-16 after beating Duke or UNC.

Here what Virginia has allowed in Conference play

52
55
59
36
59
51

They have only allowed above 60 points twice all season and that was 64 and 61.

It's a very quick turn around for NC State and I don't think they will be able to adjust from the high scoring pace they just played beating their biggest rival, too now getting lured to sleep in VA, playing half court basketball.

The Maryland game I referred too earlier was their performance after beating duke a few days Before.

I see this game down to the wire in the 50's

I strongly considered a play on Va -3 in this spot but I fear Nc State's rebounding.

[Louisvillekid1]

already seeing a 5.5 and mostly all 5's in the Illinois St game...

[Louisvillekid1]

A winning night is a winning night. congrats.

you are dead on about the number shopping. KID is sharp as a tack.

It is something I dont do enough of. I'm good about not buying in on a bad number, but I dont have $$$ spread out on multiple books where I can line shop. You're right though, long term it creates quite the advantage.

Yeah also if you can play at reduced juice books it will help you a ton.

Nice Hit tonight as well!

[Louisvillekid1]

3-1-1 +2.45x

Nice job LK.....looks like a few people had some plus nights!

Thanks, numy!

[alamo]

Virginia's Defense has been fierce at home, and NC State's ppg in conference is inflated since alot of ACC teams like to push the pace. Virginia has the 5th rated Home defense in the nation giving up a ridiculous 47.5 ppg.

Do you remember watching the NC State @ Maryland game? It was 51-50 final and when the Wolfpack get forced to slow down they really struggle. Most of their points come off offensive rebounding from Howell and CJ Leslie's work in the paint in those situations.

When Virginia Played UNC @ home the Final was 61-52 (good to cover this # by 13 points, and we also drilled that game for a nice score) and UNC as you know has a higher pace very but similar to how NC State wants to play. Also, NC State is something crazy like 1-16 after beating Duke or UNC.

Here what Virginia has allowed in Conference play

52
55
59
36
59
51

They have only allowed above 60 points twice all season and that was 64 and 61.

It's a very quick turn around for NC State and I don't think they will be able to adjust from the high scoring pace they just played beating their biggest rival, too now getting lured to sleep in VA, playing half court basketball.

The Maryland game I referred too earlier was their performance after beating duke a few days Before.

I see this game down to the wire in the 50's

I strongly considered a play on Va -3 in this spot but I fear Nc State's rebounding.

Great write up LK. You've convinced me ! Thanks for taking time to answer the question. Now lets get pay back from that 1h daylight robbery last night !

[Louisvillekid1]

3-1-1 +2.45x (very bittersweet, since other got different numbers) Posted plays for tomorrow already to try and avoid that happening ever again.

Number shopping is very important to beat the game long run (just look at poster LT Profits Daily Cards, guy saves like 20+ units a year in shopping alone)

77-58-5 (57%) + $1417 (28.24units)


Tuesday's 1/29 Plays

2 Official Plays up to this point

NC State/Virginia u 126 1.1x to win 1x
Illinois St -4.5 1.65x to win 1.5x

Adding:

4 Point Teaser -120

Ohio St -1.5
Kentucky +7

1.2x to win 1x

(tailing poster Can'tTouchAyo) I had leans to both these sides and but lines were too sharp to play 'em. I rarely play teasers but this one stood out once I saw it.

GL

[Louisvillekid1]

Hope you guys hit the 126, I'm seeing a 123 and 124 now at most places.

[CantTouchAyo]

GL kid, get that $$$

[Louisvillekid1]

Rutgers @ (24) Cincinnati 7:00 Est WEd 1/30

This game intrigues me very much. The # is set very high @ -12.5 and I'd imagine it will move closer to 11. The Angle I'm looking at in this game is the fact the bear cats have been off since the 21st. I like to fade teams coming off over a week's rest especially when playing an opponent who isn't a big name foe. Rutgers plays tough and physical style and when these teams play each other they tend to really grind it out in a low scoring game.

In these types of games the Bearcats tend to rely on jacking deep 3's (which they can knock down) but if they aren't falling they could be in trouble. They do have a huge rebounding edge in this match-up, which will probably end up being the difference allowing the Bearcats to pull away from the Knights in the second half.

With all this time off, coming off the tough 2 point loss against the Orange in a game where they had a 7 point lead around the 3 minute mark and didn't score a single point from then on out.

I can see Cincy coming out flat in this game, against a hungry and loose Scarlet Knight team who is currently on a 3 game losing streak.

There is no way that this line will go up, but My shops haven't dropped total or any first half lines at all yet.

I'm Hoping to get a first half line of +7/58.

In this case I'm going to hit Rutgers +7, the under 58 and parlay and them as well.

I will also make a small play on the game total (hoping for 129) and +12.5 but very small compared to the first half, because I really like my edge in the first 20 minutes as opposed to letting that rebounding edge that Cincy possess come into affect for the full 40 minutes.

Anyway just wanted to share some thoughts on this matchup, as I stated before I thought we could use some more discussion on these games and try to stay a night ahead of the cards so we can get the best lines.

[Louisvillekid1]

ADDING:

Kentucky +3.5 1.2x
Kentucky +135 0.4x

[sportsguy04]

Virginia need to start slowing this game down.

[sportsguy04]

Rutgers @ (24) Cincinnati 7:00 Est WEd 1/30

This game intrigues me very much. The # is set very high @ -12.5 and I'd imagine it will move closer to 11. The Angle I'm looking at in this game is the fact the bear cats have been off since the 21st. I like to fade teams coming off over a week's rest especially when playing an opponent who isn't a big name foe. Rutgers plays tough and physical style and when these teams play each other they tend to really grind it out in a low scoring game.

In these types of games the Bearcats tend to rely on jacking deep 3's (which they can knock down) but if they aren't falling they could be in trouble. They do have a huge rebounding edge in this match-up, which will probably end up being the difference allowing the Bearcats to pull away from the Knights in the second half.

With all this time off, coming off the tough 2 point loss against the Orange in a game where they had a 7 point lead around the 3 minute mark and didn't score a single point from then on out.

I can see Cincy coming out flat in this game, against a hungry and loose Scarlet Knight team who is currently on a 3 game losing streak.

There is no way that this line will go up, but My shops haven't dropped total or any first half lines at all yet.

I'm Hoping to get a first half line of +7/58.

In this case I'm going to hit Rutgers +7, the under 58 and parlay and them as well.

I will also make a small play on the game total (hoping for 129) and +12.5 but very small compared to the first half, because I really like my edge in the first 20 minutes as opposed to letting that rebounding edge that Cincy possess come into affect for the full 40 minutes.

Anyway just wanted to share some thoughts on this matchup, as I stated before I thought we could use some more discussion on these games and try to stay a night ahead of the cards so we can get the best lines.

Cincy shouldnt be a 11 point fav to any big east team, period. They are not a blow you out team. They grind games out and use their good defense. Take the under here. Game should be in the 50's and low 60's.

[Louisvillekid1]

Virginia need to start slowing this game down.

Im happy with the pace, beat the closer by 2/3 points and were on the right won or lose

[Louisvillekid1]

How can anybody watch the NBA regular season as opposed to watching games like these tonight!

[sportsguy04]

Im happy with the pace, beat the closer by 2/3 points and were on the right won or lose

Yes looks good now. 2H slow.... Just no OT.

[sportsguy04]

Scoring the past 2 mins has increased. What the...

Terrible beat....

[bjb7223]

under 126 cash $$$$, kid

[sportsguy04]

under 126 cash $$$$, kid

no ot please

[bjb7223]

money money money

[Louisvillekid1]

I just wanna apologize for the first time all season not sticking with my gut on Indiana st ATS/ml...

Game is far from over but fukk me, you guys deserve better!

[Louisvillekid1]

money money money

My man Bj!

weve been talking about this since the unc game!

pm pal so we can stay in touch

[tto827]

As good as it looks now LK, I dunno if they hold on SU. They are shooting 60% while Wichita shooting less than 33%. Probably going to be a close finish.

[Louisvillekid1]

Scoring the past 2 mins has increased. What the...

Terrible beat....

terrible beat?

Wtf

[sportsguy04]

terrible beat?

Wtf

Reverse Jinx Bro.. We cashed!

[sportsguy04]

I just wanna apologize for the first time all season not sticking with my gut on Indiana st ATS/ml...

Game is far from over but fukk me, you guys deserve better!

Take Indy State 2H +10. They just need to win SU.

[Louisvillekid1]

As good as it looks now LK, I dunno if they hold on SU. They are shooting 60% while Wichita shooting less than 33%. Probably going to be a close finish.

Fyi,

when poster tto checks in you better listen!

but on the flip side you've known me long enough to know I don't get mad at losing, I get mad when I second guess myself.

If you don't stick with your gut/first instinct then what do you have?


anywY keep crushing them TTO!

[Louisvillekid1]

Reverse Jinx Bro.. We cashed!

Youre a solid poster but leave that jinx shit in players talk

[alamo]

I questioned my man LK's call on the under late last night, he came back with an epic short essay on why this would be a defensive battle. Shame on me for even doubting the kid. But I sure as hell am glad he CONVINCED me to change my mind !

[Louisvillekid1]

I questioned my man LK's call on the under late last night, he came back with an epic short essay on why this would be a defensive battle. Shame on me for even doubting the kid. But I sure as hell am glad he CONVINCED me to change my mind !

Alamo,

You've been with me from day one, if u ever have a question on a play I'm glad to tell you why.

I want posters like you to win more than I wanna win.


You put you're faith in me and if u think for one second I don't feel that pressure , well you already know...


We're a family down here, and I think we might be heating up..


I'm not throwing darts , ill do a better job at posting write ups in the future , you guys deserve it..

[Louisvillekid1]

Let me also say that I was very upset that my followers didn't cash last night, I wouldn't stick with this unless I thought we could make $$$

the way I see it, I owe my followers about 10/15 units and I will do my best to get there

[sportsguy04]

On Illinois State with ya. I think Lemon JR of Bradley got injured? He started but hasnt recorded any numbers? Thats good for us backers though.

[Louisvillekid1]

They should be blowing the braves out, up 14 and letting them back in the game

[sportsguy04]

They should be blowing the braves out, up 14 and letting them back in the game

Agreed. Difference is 15 turnovers by Ill State. They are shooting lights out though, and Bradley isnt.

[Louisvillekid1]

I still can't believe I didn't stick with Indiana st