Capping game before looking at the line

[Snowball]

I cap the games before I look at the lines.
here's the result, with the real line in parentheses.
then, i bet the widest differences.

Orlando -5 184 (-5.5, 189)
Phila -8 177 (-11, 176.5)
Utah -4 182 (-4, 182.5)
Miami -8 178 (-6, 199.5)
Dallas -4 191 (-4.5, 186.5)
GS -5 202 (-4, 202)

bets
Miami/Milwaukee Under 199.5
Charlotte +11.5

[parexa]

i like the under

[Yaniv]

Charlotte +11.5??
I like the method. Good luck.

[doubleplay]

No bet charlotte-Sixers

Never bet an high handicap like this on road

[Snowball]

adding to these bets, with the LM making them even better deals.

2x Bobcats +12
2x Miami/Bucks Under 201

[Crofta]

GL Snow - Unders in the Bucks game is my POD

[face]

snowball did you cap bobcats without dj augastine? bobcats likely lineup: kemba walker, bismack biyombo (new guy), boris diaw, corey magette, and reggie williams. bobcats are jump shooting trash team, sixers will get dunks and layups in my opinion. just wondering how you capped it, very interested in this game.

[Snowball]

snowball did you cap bobcats without dj augastine? bobcats likely lineup: kemba walker, bismack biyombo (new guy), boris diaw, corey magette, and reggie williams. bobcats are jump shooting trash team, sixers will get dunks and layups in my opinion. just wondering how you capped it, very interested in this game.

yes, i did.. and to be fair, the 76'ers deserve to be 12 point favorites..
but Charlotte is at home, they have young players trying to establish
themselves, and for any NBA team to cover 12 needs a lot to go just
right, especially for them to avoid the final minutes back-door cover.
All Philly cares about is winning, not winning "by" a score.
8-ish was where I would lay maximum if I was betting Philly. I tend to think in
terms of "what would i lay". Thus, I went with Charlotte and the 12.

Still, I do like the Miami/Bucks Under better.
look how close my blind cap was to the other totals.
that one i was very different ....

[moshi]

Only thing with the Under is that everybody and their mother is on the Under..

[celtics3388]

I'm on the Mia/Mil under too... I really hope the big under betters are waiting it out for a higher number and we see the total fall right before tip-off, right now RLM is not in our favor

[Sport_Fish]

Simple math n stats are not really enough to put money on Charlotte here. The last several games have clearly illustrated how brutally Bobcats are struggling with their offense. And 76ers have been extremely solid on both ends of the floor and should dispose the cats easily.

[moshi]

The only thing I'm hesitant about on Philly is that they bench all the starters and let in a backdoor.

[Snowball]

Only thing with the Under is that everybody and their mother is on the Under..

if that were true, it wouldn't have moved from 199.5 to 201.
Public is on the Over.

[celtics3388]

if that were true, it wouldn't have moved from 199.5 to 201.
Public is on the Over.

public doesn't move lines

[lakerboy]

public doesn't move lines

yes they can and do

[Romanov]

Revolutionary dude

[celtics3388]

yes they can and do

I've always thought it was sharp money that can move a line. I'm sure if the public and the sharps are on the same side, the line would move more than it would if the public and the sharps were on opposite sides.

[moshi]

Nice capping man!

[Snowball]

ok.. 1-1 last night.
Miami just really ripped it up and scored 114.

today: going to think about this, here's my blind cap
with the real line in parentheses (5D)

Miami -4.5 Indiana 198.5 (-2, 198)
New York -5 Toronto 203 (-5, 191.5)
San Antonio -6.5 Detroit 179 (-9, 189)
Chicago -7.5 Sacramento 185 (-12.5, 188.5)
OKC -7.5 Utah 192.5 (-12.5, 200)
Memphis -3.5 Houston 187.5 (-3, 189.5)
Denver -4.5 Phoenix 196.5 (-9, 207)
Portland -9 Washington 192 (-15, 193.5)
LA Lakers -5.5 Atlanta 184 (-5.5, 177.5)

[Snowball]

largest discreapancy bets:

Knicks/Raptors Over 191.5
Kings +12.5
Jazz +12.5
Wizards +15
Suns/Nuggets Under 207
Spurs/Pistons Under 189

(i will track record, right now 1-1)
betting all these 1x
resist the urge to choose a "best bet"
but it would be the Knicks/Raptors Over.

[Snowball]

2-3-1 (3-4-1)

Magic -4, 191 (-2.5, 178.5)
Spurs -6.5, 194.5 (-7.5, 186)
Celtics -3, 184.5 (-8.5, 179)
Pacers -2.5, 187 (-1.5, 192)
Grizzlies -5.5, 192 (-3.5, 187.5)
Knicks -3, 198.5 (-6, 200)
OKC -7, 201.5 (-3.5, 202.5)
Bucks -7.5, 195 (-9.5, 184)
Wolves -10, 188 (-10.5, 190.5)
Mavs -5.5, 197.5 (-7, 198.5)
Suns -1, 196.5 (+1.5, 187)
Blazers -1, 204.5 (+5, 197)
LAC -13.5, 195 (-13.5, 197.5)

[Snowball]

plays and differences

Magic/Sixers Over 178.5 (12.5 pt diff)
Pistons +8.5 (5.5 pt diff)
OKC -3.5 (3.5 pt diff)
Bucks/Hornets Over 184 (11 pt diff)
Suns/Hawks Over 187 (10.5 pt diff)
Blazers +5, (6 pt diff)

notes:
-with all the Celtics injuries, I really like the Pistons bet a lot. They also may
be a light ML possibility.
-blazers also a ML possibility, but rather take the points because ML is only +180.

[Snowball]

forget Detroit ML idea, and cancel the Pistons +8.5
because I capped that believing Garnett, O'Neal and Pietrus were
unlikely to play.
Updates say they are all likely, with the only out for Boston
being Brandon Bass.

http://boston.sbnation.com/boston-celtics/2012/2/15/2800007/boston-celtics-news-2012-celtics-vs-pistons-kevin-garnett-injury-update-mickael-pietrus

[Snowball]

early reports that Garnett would play proved to be wrong, so I shouldn't
have scratched Detroit. Still, went 3-2. (6-6-1).
Boston seemed to be thinking ahead to tonight's match in Chicago.

[Snowball]

ok, going to make an important change in the approach.
the approach yielded flat, 50%. it was based on me capping
"what i think would be the line", not on "what i think will happen."

now, I'm switching to "what i think will happen"..

Pacers -8, 187
Clips -11, 185

Boston/Chicago, I will leave alone. Need info on KG.
It's an iffy game anyway. Celtics did not work hard last night.
Bulls without Rose again. But if KG isn't playing, no can do.

I like the Clips a lot tonight. Portland worked like animals to beat
Golden State at their place last night. without Aldridge, and without him
again tonight means Blake Griffin should be penetrating easily.
I don't see the Rose Garden advantage helping them enough.
5 Dimes hasn't released lines yet, or has pulled them for now.

[Snowball]

forget it, took much work with the posting..

i bet too many combinations to spend hours posting here

love the Clips -140
and kinda like Boston in parlays getting at least 12.