What do you think about this system?

[nbafanatic2012]

nbafanatic dont bother replying to this idiot. this the same dumbass that made the thread "your dumb if you pick the atlanta hawks" over toronto. this dude defo made it into my dumbass sbr list after that. i just hate guys that come into a posters thread that want some feedback just to talk shit.

lol the raptors....lmfao.....this guys a sharp

[freakydave]

I did use that pick for myself but did not post...Starter Horford is out and didn't want to go against what I stated.

Well BOL to you I'll keep checkin in

[monologue]

if u didn't post then ur record for today is simply 0-1.
I dunno why I came up with that play too, but covering big or small is same thing. Just like when you bet on SU, win or lose. Winning by 1 point or 30 point won't make any difference to amount in ur cash, so tor losing by 6.5 or 65points wont change anything. Sometimes I just bet base on my feeling and I know I hit more than 60% with my gut feeling bets. I will make thread like that if I want to because I dont think I need anyone's permission to make my own thread. I tell you again, no offense to you personally, simply I believe there is no such a system that works.

[suicidekings]

The base assumptions in your system using win% include:

1) That wins are worth one, and losses are worth zero, essentially making a win by 20 = a win by 1.
2) Strength of schedule for the two teams is identical.

Both of these are flawed...

[monologue]

I dont pick my bets simply fading public mate, but my bets are usually public fade because I believe public will never win from the bookies and underdogs always, all the time has advantage of 0.5-1 in spread. Taking good advantage of it and at least making some profit is better than simply looking for games that look so easy that makes u think u can win everytime.
I am smart and I know how capable I am. I made a wrong bet on raptors but that's just one play of my 30+ plays.

[nbafanatic2012]

if u didn't post then ur record for today is simply 0-1.
I dunno why I came up with that play too, but covering big or small is same thing. Just like when you bet on SU, win or lose. Winning by 1 point or 30 point won't make any difference to amount in ur cash, so tor losing by 6.5 or 65points wont change anything. Sometimes I just bet base on my feeling and I know I hit more than 60% with my gut feeling bets. I will make thread like that if I want to because I dont think I need anyone's permission to make my own thread. I tell you again, no offense to you personally, simply I believe there is no such a system that works.

as you can see I stated the record to be 0-1...but there are other people using the same system and wondering why I didn't post other picks that may have qualafied with the sys.

[nbafanatic2012]

Magic already moved to -10

[monologue]

what important is you are confident to bet using ur system or not...
I had many games that my guts feeling was right, but I did not place the bet because I wasnt confident.
Having right or wrong system isnt important, the absolute objective is to pick a right team and win cash. If you just want to test the system, then u should be posting all picks that your system tells u to, not your personal pick. You are contradicting yourself mate.

[CertainValor]

I want to understand your formula, but with any math, the numbers need to develop the power of language.

For instance, as one other poster asked, where does dividing by 20 come from? I just need an explanation as to why we would divide by 20, otherwise it just seems arbitrary. Also, does your formula account for teams with close winning percentages? I'm a bit confused by your "difference of 10" thing. Example:

Nets - 0.318 7w 15L

Pistons - 0.174 4w 19L

.318 - .174 = .144/20 = 7.2 + 3 = 10.2 - 4 = 6.2? magic #

or

.318 - .174 = .144/20 = 7.2 - 3 = 4.2 - 4 = .2? magic #

So.... who would I pick?

I'm trying to understand, but it seems like a lot of jibberish to me.

[ImakeBets]

Worst system ever, i hope ur IQ aint double digit

so its ok to make fun of someone's intellect, but saying you play ping pong is absurd?

get real

[innn]

Sixers and Bulls? Go ahead and keep betting on them. It wont last long and u will find urself losing all ur cash very soon

and I suppose you found that trying?

[innn]

I feel single digits IQed already for taking time to reply to some monologist
please get the **** out of here so I and others can follow someone that at least put effort in a system
I am ready go on nbafanatic you have the word

[YouHave2outs]

The base assumptions in your system using win% include: 1) That wins are worth one, and losses are worth zero, essentially making a win by 20 = a win by 1. 2) Strength of schedule for the two teams is identical. Both of these are flawed...

this makes tons and tons of sense

are you going to respond to this op? if not, any record win or lose just seems random

[smarotta09]

So monologue makes fun of someone else intelligence but cries like a girl when you make fun of them being them.you seriously are the biggest girl on this forum. Keep trying this theory .. Don't let some ping pong playf ruin it ... BTW mono, nice thread that says your an idiot if you take the hawks LOL

[nbafanatic2012]

I want to understand your formula, but with any math, the numbers need to develop the power of language.

For instance, as one other poster asked, where does dividing by 20 come from? I just need an explanation as to why we would divide by 20, otherwise it just seems arbitrary. Also, does your formula account for teams with close winning percentages? I'm a bit confused by your "difference of 10" thing. Example:

Nets - 0.318 7w 15L

Pistons - 0.174 4w 19L

.318 - .174 = .144/20 = 7.2 + 3 = 10.2 - 4 = 6.2? magic #

or

.318 - .174 = .144/20 = 7.2 - 3 = 4.2 - 4 = .2? magic #

So.... who would I pick?

I'm trying to understand, but it seems like a lot of jibberish to me.

we are simply just making 20 the x variable, I thought .20 seemed to be a fair percentage to = 1point if you feel want to adjust that by all means do so. No it will not work in your favor with teams with close percentages, although I haven't made an attempt to yet. By having a surplus of 10 or more just puts you in a comfortable spot as where you have the advantage by 10.

[freakydave]

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/basketball/a/nbabetsystem.htm

This link explains what I was driving at about finding underdogs-the final number does need to be positive > 0 if the wrong team is favored but it doesn't have to be >9.5

[freakydave]

this makes tons and tons of sense are you going to respond to this op? if not, any record win or lose just seems random

Hey honest ? for a person who is willing to share his opinion-What is the hard on people in this forum have for SOS? in NCAA there are over 300 teams SOS will have an impact but in pro sports where the leagues are comprised of 30 teams & contain the best players in the world SOS is minimized imo.Don't forget that the system is just a crude tool for locating potentially soft lines & should not be bet like blind monkey.If you could shed some light as to why I should give SOS more weight I would be happy to learn something.

[ugabooga]

Yeah the divide by 20 seemed random to me as well. Good luck but too many variables for this to work IMO. For example at what stage of the season do you start the system? As you're using winning/losing percentages you'd have to wait 10-20 games to start it then you'd need to consider how tough/easy the draw is. By then there are better trends to identify and cap. Good luck though I'll be reading with interest

[nbafanatic2012]

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/b...abetsystem.htm

This link explains what I was driving at about finding underdogs-the final number does need to be positive > 0 if the wrong team is favored but it doesn't have to be >9.5

Great stuff....thanks....It would be nice if you chose out a game on your own and post the calculations...

Gl will wait for your post

[freakydave]

Great stuff....thanks....It would be nice if you chose out a game on your own and post the calculations... Gl will wait for your post

OK Jan 23rd -
Mem(+2 )w% 600 -GS 333 = 267 /20 = 13 - 3 being on the road =10 + 2 final number 12 but because MEM was the dog any number > 0 would suffice.
HOU (+2.5) W% 563- 438 125/20 =6 - 3 being on the road =3 + 2.5 = final number 5.5 > 0 = play the dog

[nbafanatic2012]

OK Jan 23rd -
Mem(+2 )w% 600 -GS 333 = 267 /20 = 13 - 3 being on the road =10 + 2 final number 12 but because MEM was the dog any number > 0 would suffice.
HOU (+2.5) W% 563- 438 125/20 =6 - 3 being on the road =3 + 2.5 = final number 5.5 > 0 = play the dog

Have you been using this system for a while? if so how long and have you been consistent with it? Has it been working well for you??

[freakydave]

Have you been using this system for a while? if so how long and have you been consistent with it? Has it been working well for you??

I am basically in the same boat as you I've only been using it for about 2 weeks I am consitent with it
I have it at 7-2 overall but the dogs winning outright is 3-0

[nbafanatic2012]

Here are some more picks for today...

W-0 L-1 (-1U)

TEST 2

MAGIC -9 2U GOT THE LINE EARLY AS I POSTED LAST NIGHT, SO IF NECESSARY MUST BUY DOWN POINTS
JAZZ +3 1U LINE STANDS AT 2.5 BUT BOUGHT HOOK AS I NEVER EVER I MEAN EVER PLAY .5 HOOK
ROCKETS +6 1U AGAIN PURCHASED .5 HOOK
PACERS +4 1U PURCHASED ONE POINT ADDITIONAL


LETS SEE HOW THIS GOES...

[nbafanatic2012]

Adding one more play

BUCKS +7 1U LINE STANDS AT 6.5 BOUGHT HOOK

[nbafanatic2012]

[quote=nbafanatic2012;13546133]Here are some more picks for today...

UPTO DATE RECORD
W-3 L-3 (-1U)

TEST 2

MAGIC -9 2U LOSS
JAZZ +3 1U WIN
ROCKETS +6 1U LOSS
PACERS +4 1U WIN
BUCKS +7 1U WIN

WINNING PERCENTAGE - 60%

[monologue]

lets get this clear.
You are playing teasers, i suggest u not to just to test this system properly. Ur unit computation has problem as well.

[monologue]

its like you are playing ML and considering it as ATS.