why are folks bettig on gsw?
gsw is b2b and on the road.
gsw is b2b and on the road.
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this game has trap written all over it. books are trying to get the public to jump on GS +5.5. Take Detroit here.
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Speedy -- do you think there's any reason to take the Pistons -5.5 now as opposed to waiting until tomorrow? My thinking is, if this is truly a trap bet for the public to take the Warriors then I might get stuck with it at -6 or -6.5 tomorrow.. lemme know what you think, thanks bro.Comment -
line moved from -4.5 to -5.5 fast !
lolComment -
For me, I always wait till last minute possible. Not literally, but figuratively. Meaning, I'll probably take the bet an hour or so before the game just in case there is more "telling" line movement.
My guess is that it won't go up anymore. It already went up from -4.5 to -5.5. Anything more than a full point would be a bit "obvious." For most of these games that have had RLM this year, the most line movement i've seen has been 1 point. So I don't think you need to worry about it moving up to 6. But even if it does, I'd feel safe with it. Why would Vegas set up a line that will likely fail for them? If the line randomly went up to 7, I'd put my faith in the bookies, and still take Detroit.
But Detroit looks like a great play tomorrow, especially with the small card. Just a couple of days ago I made a thread stating Det +3.5 @ CHA was a great play for the same reason, fishy line with weird line movement.
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^Yeah, I actually tailed you on that Pistons +3.5 play and cashed in nicely. I've wagered sporadically in small amounts for a few years and have done modestly well just based off of bball knowledge and stuff.. but I'm inexperienced when it comes to reading Vegas (stuff like RLM and timing my bets) so the intel I pick up from guys like you, PR9, LTA, BettingWizard, etc. etc. is much appreciated
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Isn't it funny that detroit had 2 fishy lines for their 2 consecutive wins vs Indy and Orlando.
And now after the fishy line win over charlotte, they are receiving a consecutive fishy line yet again for the next game ? hmm.
I guess the NBA and vegas likes to feed Detroit in two's.. ripping off the public in the process.Comment -
Shit bro, it's easy greasy on how to read lines. Especially RLM. I can send you a PM on how to read it. Just let me know. I'm all about beating the books and helpin out other cappers on here as well.^Yeah, I actually tailed you on that Pistons +3.5 play and cashed in nicely. I've wagered sporadically in small amounts for a few years and have done modestly well just based off of bball knowledge and stuff.. but I'm inexperienced when it comes to reading Vegas (stuff like RLM and timing my bets) so the intel I pick up from guys like you, PR9, LTA, BettingWizard, etc. etc. is much appreciated
And PR, yeah I think the books are just going to keep trickin the dummies with Detroit because most people think they are such a crap team. I mean don't get me wrong, the Pistons are a BAD team, but the bad teams have to get their wins somehow. Who better than GS at home coming off a b2b.
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Let's not forget that there was a big news story out of detroit that circulated on every major news outlet how they're receiving their lowest attendance of the past 15+ years. It broke just a few days ago.
This is their first home game since that breaking story.. and after a win
All In know is the NBA absolutely despises such stories about negative attendance in their league. In the past I've seen the home team win, and convincingly, after such events
(just to add another element to this)Comment -
I've noticed attendance is down a lot of places. Its too bad because those Detroit fans were spoiled for so long when Billups/Rip/Ben Wallace/Rasheed Wallace were all in their prime. Man I loved how they kicked the Lakers @ss that one year in the finals when they had old man Malone and Gary Payton.Comment -
@ Speedy88 i like det -5.5 (booked 2 units)
also like total for jazz under 207 and jazz +10 for 0.25u each (will parlay them as soon as site allows for 0.5)
Can you tell how to read RLM?
TIAComment -
One of my books (sbgglobal.com) still has DET -4.5
bought the hook.Comment -
Yeah i have no opinion on totals because I suck at those. Go to LTA or someone else for advice on that. But if I had a lean, I'd probably say under just because I doubt Utah can mustard up more than 90 points after playing today. And yes I can read RLM (not sure if your asking me if I can read RLM, or if I can tell YOU how to read RLM)
Good stuff, wish I could get that line.
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RLM:
Example: Lakers @ Warriors
Opening line: Lakers -5
Majority of public on Lakers and it goes to -4 (reverse) instead of going to -6; which it should since they're taking a ton of Laker bets.Comment -
and:
just the basicsComment -
Waiting when my book to drop line to -4.5
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i am for detroit as well and agree to the comments above but only thing i fear is that it might be a deeper trap for bettors like us. Sometimes public gets very easy games like we do time to time. I didn't bet on gsw@cha because of that feeling although it went wrong.Comment -
For me, I always wait till last minute possible. Not literally, but figuratively. Meaning, I'll probably take the bet an hour or so before the game just in case there is more "telling" line movement.
My guess is that it won't go up anymore. It already went up from -4.5 to -5.5. Anything more than a full point would be a bit "obvious." For most of these games that have had RLM this year, the most line movement i've seen has been 1 point. So I don't think you need to worry about it moving up to 6. But even if it does, I'd feel safe with it. Why would Vegas set up a line that will likely fail for them? If the line randomly went up to 7, I'd put my faith in the bookies, and still take Detroit.
But Detroit looks like a great play tomorrow, especially with the small card. Just a couple of days ago I made a thread stating Det +3.5 @ CHA was a great play for the same reason, fishy line with weird line movement.
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This is what America needs to written on the dollar
I really do not understand why you think the line is weird.with how they look, obviously they would not be favorites in the road,also they in B2B so what line you expect..
But one thing I really do not understand,why the line jumped up when 75% of bets on Golden..
******* David Stern..why only 3 games and tomorrow 11
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Down to -5. What does this mean?
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I got Detroit at -4.5.
Detroit absolutely own Warriors, and especially with Warriors on a B2B on the road.
Warriors are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 on the road to Detroit, and Detroit are 15-1 SU at home to them.Comment -
RLM is a great tool, but it cannot be followed blindly to success. Much like any other angle, you have to use in conjunction with other factors. There was "RLM" on New Jersey yesterday, but they got smoked.
Blindly following RLM has proven to be no better than a 50/50 proposition. For every Detroit v. Charlotte winner with RLM on Detroit, you will have a NJ v Utah loser like last night where there was RLM on NJ.
In addition, one of the biggest problems with RLM is that you are invariably betting into stale lines and getting bad numbers at bad prices (especially in baseball where ML plays are so important). For example, let's look at this hypo relating to today's Detroit/GS game. If you bet into Detroit at -6 because of the steam on Detroit from -4.5 and the game ends with a Detroit win by 5 points, then all the sharps that caused the steam cash at -4.5, but the RLM followers who jumped on -6, will lose.
I always say it's better to be ahead of the RLM steam by trying to predict and calculate the factors that cause RLM. What are the sharps and syndicates seeing that causes RLM. Once you know when and where the RLM will hit, you will be ahead of the steam and will be killing the books. If you just blindly follow RLM and continually bet into bad numbers, you will lose money over a large sample size (e.g. 500-1,000).
We should start tracking what the common denominator is between winning RLM plays and losing RLM plays. That would be an awesome project.Comment -
back to -4.5...Comment -
I can get -4.Comment -
i see people betting GSW because I think its a Morrison NBA System 'B' bet...high % on GSW and live moved sharply for a bit from 4.5 to 5.5 then back down...really torn here...Comment -
But at what Odds?
Because I also can get -4 and even -2.5/-3/-3.5 and all this shit but the odds are low lol...
GL LTAComment -
Oooh moved back to GS +4.5. Not sure how much I like Detroit anymore.Comment -
Saw the line and I was like huh?Comment
