Portland -3.5 @ Magic

thebestthereis · 01-11-12, 11:12 AM

Portland never gets love, Magic always get love (love = Howard). At this point not sure how you can take the Magic, which means take the Magic.

knicks573 · 01-11-12, 11:14 AM

Portland playing on b2b and 3 of the last 4 days

Gambler#1 · 01-11-12, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by thebestthereis

Portland never gets love, Magic always get love (love = Howard). At this point not sure how you can take the Magic, which means take the Magic.

That's what I'm talking about...
Vegas gives a line that looks very simple and expect everyone to bet on it..
In time you cant find one good reason to go whith Orlando..so its look like PTB is a mini Banker..
but we all know that is no such a thing so waht we gonna do?!

Kadinni · 01-11-12, 11:42 AM

The Magic's 3s could fall tonight. Good spot to fade Portland/Public. Portland is becoming a huge public team. Esp at home. I think the Portland and how good they really are at home have been exposed. The Magic had won 3 in a row on this court before dropping both last year.

demens · 01-11-12, 02:00 PM

Books got it perfectly on that letdown game in Phoenix after a big win vs the Lakers. Kind of similar, beating the "big name" Clips, especially after losing to them earlier in the season could lead to a let down. Difference in this imo is Orl is still a pretty good team, not one Blazers are in a position to be overlooking (they have SA next), plus this game is at home. They beat Orl 3 straight, including 1 where Howard went for 39, and one where Howard did not play. So it is a potential bad spot, but i think the books have it wrong on this one. Orlando has a decent amount of wins, but none against quality teams, they did lose to OKC and Chicago (at home) and where not even competitive in those games. Line says Magic, but its Blazers or no play for me.

Gambler#1 · 01-11-12, 02:32 PM

Please tell me how the line says Magic?

This is low line that look very easy to cover. in one hand like you say the Magic are sucks,in the other hand,Portland win all six game at home and play very good against Big names.so any smart man that see this line in first view will go on Portland.

Please correct me if I'm wrong..

Future24 · 01-11-12, 02:43 PM

Line dropped to -3 for the Blazers on 5dimes. 1/11/2012 10:05 PM NBA Basketball 720 Portland Trailblazers* Over 94 -110 vs Orlando Magic is the real play

demens · 01-11-12, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by Gambler#1

Please tell me how the line says Magic?

This is low line that look very easy to cover. in one hand like you say the Magic are sucks,in the other hand,Portland win all six game at home and play very good against Big names.so any smart man that see this line in first view will go on Portland.

Please correct me if I'm wrong..

The line says Magic because it looks like Portland should easily cover -3 based on past games. They call it "too good to be true", some people like to call these games "traps" (i dont). Logically most casual fans would think Portland should be a bigger favorite but for some reason they are not. So thats why the line says Magic. Normally the reason for a weird line like this is easy to spot, but i dont see anything scary here.

rnunez91 · 01-11-12, 02:50 PM

Line says magic because portlands giving only 3.5 against an avg orlando team, also the fact that portland is one of the best home teams in the nba. im pretty sure if portland played in orlando the line would be portland -2, could even go up to 2.5. So for portland to be giving only 3.5 seems fishy to all of us. But as demens said, lines telling us take orlando.. But hard to in this spot.

rnunez91 · 01-11-12, 02:51 PM

but demens, i never bought into that stuff. alot of people base there bets on line movement.. How can line movement have any effect on how players perform on the court. thats one thing ill never understand, the funny thing is vegas is usually right

Gambler#1 · 01-11-12, 02:59 PM

@demens

Thanks for the comment,like you said its "too good to be true",and now I start to see that everybody starts put money on Magic,mybe in the end this one will be a public bet,so if the line continues to move I definitely take Portland..

Kadinni · 01-11-12, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by Gambler#1

@demens

Thanks for the comment,like you said its "too good to be true",and now I start to see that everybody starts put money on Magic,mybe in the end this one will be a public bet,so if the line continues to move I definitely take Portland..

Who is everyone? Game is completely lopsided on portland. I doubt this will become some Public fav any time soon. if you see this getting to Portland 4-4.5, then Magic backers could be in trouble. But till then, i feel like the Magic is the play at +3.

demens · 01-11-12, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by rnunez91

but demens, i never bought into that stuff. alot of people base there bets on line movement.. How can line movement have any effect on how players perform on the court. thats one thing ill never understand, the funny thing is vegas is usually right

I dont buy into either. Vegas is wrong as much as they are right imo. They make their money with the vig and their little games they play vs the big time bettors.

I'd say 8/10 times i see weird looking lines i kind of understand why its set to what its set. Some times they are right on, some times its an easy blow out win. I just think psychologically an upset like a scrub team beating a top team sticks in your head way longer then the top team blowing out the scrubs. These games even out in the end imo, but its good to know and understand the spots.

Future24 · 01-11-12, 03:26 PM

1/11/2012 10:05 PM NBA Basketball 720 Portland Trailblazers* Over 94 -110 vs Orlando Magic

The Blazers have scored under 100 only once at home this year and that was a blow out victory over the Cavs where they still scored 98. Orlando is ranked 12th in defensive efficiency so they aren't a great defensive team...just decent. Blazers are undefeated at home and averaging 104ppg at home and 99 ppg overall. Shoot about 45% at home which is a good number.

The only scary part of this is that when they had a big game against the Lakers...they fell flat the next day in Phoenix. They just had a big win versus the Clippers last night, but the key difference here is they are playing at home tonight where they are unbeaten..

The Magic have lost to the Thunder and Pistons on the road and beat the sorry Bobcats and Kings as their only road victories.

You can play the spread at (-3) but I like this play better.

PR9 · 01-11-12, 03:33 PM

Vegas is trying to get as much money going to Portland as they can. They saw that 90% of the ML on most books earlier today was on Portland. They "reversed" the line intentionally trying to get more $$ on Port.

With that said..

ALWAYS be leary when a team plays a marquee matchup the night before of a b2b and impresses in a nice win in front of millions of people on National TV (as port did last night vs clips), then you have a RLM going on against a rested team the next day !! See Phx the other night when they destroyed this same Blazer team.

Blaze due for a home loss coming off an emotional home revenge game vs a nationally hyped team. Magic are well rested with 2 days off and are gunning for this one.

Heavily leaning: Magic

EBDOGGN · 01-11-12, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by PR9

Vegas is trying to get as much money going to Portland as they can. They saw that 90% of the ML on most books earlier today was on Portland. They "reversed" the line intentionally trying to get more $$ on Port.

With that said..

ALWAYS be leary when a team plays a marquee matchup the night before of a b2b and impresses in a nice win in front of millions of people on National TV (as port did last night vs clips), then you have a RLM going on against a rested team the next day !! See Phx the other night when they destroyed this same Blazer team.

Blaze due for a home loss coming off an emotional home revenge game vs a nationally hyped team. Magic are well rested with 2 days off and are gunning for this one.

Heavily leaning: Magic

Always on point dude.