W's NBA Thread

[wguan2]

This is just a thread for me to follow my picks for the year and encourage better bankroll management for myself. I will be using a personal model that will hopefully get better as the year goes but for now, I will be rolling with 1 unit bets. BOL everyone and your picks.

Also, I will be having half unit action wagers every now and then for my personal sake. I will record these as well. GL everyone and I wish you a profitable season.

[wguan2]

New York Knicks -5
Miami Heat -4.5

[wguan2]

New York Knicks -5
Miami Heat -4.5

Knicks

Chicago -2.5 1H
(all of these bets are 1 unit)

[wguan2]

OKC -3 and LAC -1 (4.5pt tease) 1x

[wguan2]

LAL/CHI 2H over 91.5 0.5x

[wguan2]

New York Knicks -5 1x
Miami Heat -4.5 1x
Chicago -2.5 1H 1x
LAL/CHI 2H over 91.5 0.5x
OKC -3 and LAC -1 (4.5pt tease) 1x

Need to cash this last teaser for a profitable opening to the season. BOL everyone

[wguan2]

LAC -4.5 and under 208 0.4x parlay to win 1x

Made an action wager after monitoring the line movement. Didn't get to post as I was out.

[wguan2]

New York Knicks -5 1x
Miami Heat -4.5 1x
Chicago -2.5 1H 1x
LAL/CHI 2H over 91.5 0.5x
OKC -3 and LAC -1 (4.5pt tease) 1x
LAC -4.5 and under 208 0.4x parlay to win 1x

Great opening day! 4-2 +2.4 units

[wguan2]

Monday Card 12/26

OKC -5 1x
LAL -2.5 1x
Memphis +5 1x
Dallas/Denver under 201.5 1x

I may play a ML parlay with Portland and Chicago. Also, I'm leaning NO and PHX over. Gonna track the line movement on that one. BOL everyone

[wguan2]

Added play: NJ/Wash over 190 + Mil/Cha under 180 + Orl/Hou over 196.5 parlay 0.4 units to win 2.4 units

[wguan2]

OKC -5 1x
LAL -2.5 1x
Memphis +5 1x
Dallas/Denver under 201.5 1x
Added play: NJ/Wash over 190 + Mil/Cha under 180 + Orl/Hou over 196.5 parlay 0.4 units to win 2.4 units

[wguan2]

OKC -5 1x
LAL -2.5 1x
Memphis +5 1x
Dallas/Denver under 201.5 1x
NJ/Wash over 190 + Mil/Cha under 180 + Orl/Hou over 196.5 parlay 0.4 units to win 2.4 units

Really really rough night tonight. Made two chasing bets:
Portland/Philly over 187.5 1x
Chi/GS 2H under 94.5 1x

[wguan2]

OKC -5 1x
LAL -2.5 1x
Memphis +5 1x
Dallas/Denver under 201.5 1x
NJ/Wash over 190 + Mil/Cha under 180 + Orl/Hou over 196.5 parlay 0.8 units to win 4.8 units (fixed units)
Portland/Philly over 187.5 1x
Chi/GS 2H under 94.5 1x

Tonight: 2-5 -3.1 units
YTD: 6-7 -0.7 units

Awful night, but two chasing bets hit so at least it makes for what looked to be a burial to just another bad night of the season. Looking forward to tomorrow.

[wguan2]

Tuesday's Card 12/27

Minne +5 at Milwaukee 1x
SAC at Portland under 195 1x
Miami 1H -5.5 1x
Atlanta -4 at New Jersey 1x

Let's see how these plays go, trying hard to avoid the Lakers game, the first b2b2b this year but Utah is really bad. BOL everyone!

[wguan2]

Miami/Boston under 187 1x

[wguan2]

Cash Miami -5.5 first half. The under is not looking good as both teams are shooting insane percentages. I expect these percentages to slow down so I'm going with the under 2H.

Miami/Boston under 94.5 1x

[wguan2]

Lakers -3 1H

[wguan2]

Minne +5 at Milwaukee 1x
SAC at Portland under 195 1x
Miami 1H -5.5 1x
Atlanta -4 at New Jersey 1x
Miami/Boston under 187 1x
Miami/Boston 2H under 94.5 1x
Lakers -3 1H

I'm hedging out of the Portland game with a halftime bet. I don't like the look of the game and I think SAC continues at their 50% pace and Portland to shoot a lot better the second half. It also gives me a great middle opportunity with about 5.5 points of middle value.

Portland/SAC 2H over 97.5 1x

I'm also going to add a unit on SAC +6 here. I think this game goes down to the wire and I actually think SAC pulls it off with Marcus Thornton ready to explode like always in the second half. I'm very down on Portland this year. This is more of an action wager than anything.

Sacramento +6 2H 1x

[wguan2]

Utah/Lakers 2H under 93

[BroncosFN]

Utah/Lakers 2H under 93

Agreed. Lets $ this shite!

[wguan2]

Minne +5 at Milwaukee 1x
SAC at Portland under 195 1x (middle)
Portland/SAC 2H over 97.5 1x (middle)
Miami 1H -5.5 1x
Atlanta -4 at New Jersey 1x
Miami/Boston under 187 1x
Miami/Boston 2H under 94.5 1x
Lakers -3 1H
Sacramento +6 2H 1x
Utah/Lakers 2H under 93

5-5 -0.5 units

Today was a result of me being literally bored and antsy because basketball was back. I ended up making entirely too many bets and breaking even and losing juice. If I left my original four bets up, I would have been 4-0. However, this is what this thread is about, to teach me to have better bankroll management and understand that this is about the long run. I'll take the loss today and move on to tomorrow. BOL everyone.

YTD 11-12 -1.2 units

[wguan2]

Wednesday's Card

Indiana -4 1x
OKC/Memphis over 193.5 1x
SA/LAC under 193.5 1x
Denver -12 2x
NY/GS over 204 1x
Miami -6 1H 2x

[wguan2]

Philly -1.5 1x

[wguan2]

Cleveland/Detroit 2H under 93 1x
Atlanta/Wash 2H over 92.5 1x

[wguan2]

Indiana -4 1x W
OKC/Memphis over 193.5 1x L
SA/LAC under 193.5 1x L
Denver -12 2x W
NY/GS over 204 1x L
Miami -6 1H 2x L
Philly -1.5 1x W
Cleveland/Detroit 2H under 93 1x L
Atlanta/Wash 2H over 92.5 1x L
SA/LAC under 98 2H 1x W
Philly +3 2H 1x W

5-7 -2.7 units

YTD 16-19 -3.9 units

[wguan2]

Thursday Card

Chicago -7
OKC/Dallas over 196
NY/LAL under 195
Orlando -11.5
Denver/Portland over 203

[wguan2]

Houston/SA under 198 (all of Thursday plays are 1x)

[wguan2]

Chicago -7 W
OKC/Dallas over 196 W
NY/LAL under 195 W
Orlando -11.5 W
Denver/Portland over 203 W
Houston/SA under 198 W

6-0 for the night! First sweep of the season. Let's get more of them!

YTD 22-19 +2 units

[wguan2]

Friday Card

Chicago -1.5
Chicago opened at +1 here and was quickly bet into the favorite. I really don't understand the line on this one as the travel from Sacramento to LA is not long. On a west coast trip like this, I could've easily seen them look past SAC since LAC was up next but they didn't do that which shows me that they have strongly matured as a team. I see them getting up for this game and winning in the end against a young team in LAC that hasn't fully worked out its chemistry just yet. It'll be a close game so I'm very excited for this one.
New Orleans -1.5
New Orleans at home against a bad team is a gimme in my opinion.
Philly -3
Boston -10
Atlanta -11.5
Miami/Minne under 212
The public is all over the over here. I see a lot of value in this play. I have this game set at 206 and really don't see this game going past 200 to be honest. I think Miami pulls out the defensive stops here after a rough game in Charlotte. This game will show me a lot though about Miami. I haven't gotten a good read on their defensive/offensive mindset yet and I need it because they seem to be the Green Bay of the NBA this year.

All plays are 1x.

[wguan2]

Philly -5 2H

[wguan2]

Chicago -1.5 W
New Orleans -1.5 L
Philly -3 L
Boston -10 W
Atlanta -11.5 L
Miami/Minne under 212 W
Philly -5 2H L
Chicago +0.5 2H W

4-4 -0.2 units

YTD +1.8 units

[wguan2]

Saturday Card

Houston pk
Philly -1.5

[wguan2]

Added 1x to Houston pk

Friday Card
Houston pk 2x
Philly -1.5

[wguan2]

OKC/Phx over 201
LAL -5
LAL/Denver 2H over 98.5
Sac +1

[monologue]

OKC/Phx over 201
LAL -5
LAL/Denver 2H over 98.5
Sac +1

U dont add bets while the game is going on