WNBA Projections

**ebemiss** · 08-17-11, 03:53 PM

Record

50-36 (+16.00)

2nd half experiment

3-4 (-0.68)

Thursday Projections

Location Predicted Line
at Washington Mystics Minnesota Lynx 80 Washington Mystics 73 -7
Neutral Minnesota Lynx 81 Washington Mystics 72 -9
at Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 83 Washington Mystics 70 -13

Average Pace of Game 153.2
Away Team Controls Pace 152.2
Home Team Controls Pace 154.3

Location Predicted Line
at New York Liberty New York Liberty 76 Connecticut Sun 76 0
Neutral Connecticut Sun 77 New York Liberty 74 -3
at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 79 New York Liberty 73 -6

Average Pace of Game 151.6
Away Team Controls Pace 152.8
Home Team Controls Pace 150.4

Location Predicted Line
at Los Angeles Sparks Indiana Fever 76 Los Angeles Sparks 73 -3
Neutral Indiana Fever 78 Los Angeles Sparks 71 -7
at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 79 Los Angeles Sparks 70 -9

Average Pace of Game 148.9
Away Team Controls Pace 145.3
Home Team Controls Pace 152.6

**ebemiss** · 08-18-11, 11:05 AM

Thursday

Over 150 Minnesota/Washington 1 unit
Under 152.5 LA/Indiana 1.5 units

**BernardMadoff** · 08-18-11, 08:05 PM

.....

**ebemiss** · 08-19-11, 03:39 PM

Record

51-37 (+16.40)

2nd half experiment

3-4 (-0.68)

Friday-- no play on full game, maybe 2nd half depending on how the game plays out.

Saturday

NY +6.5 1.5 units

Friday/Saturday Projections

Location Predicted Line
at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 82 Connecticut Sun 81 -1
Neutral Connecticut Sun 82 Atlanta Dream 80 -2
at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 84 Atlanta Dream 79 -5

Average Pace of Game 162.6
Away Team Controls Pace 160.1
Home Team Controls Pace 165.1

Saturday

Location Predicted Line
at Washington Mystics Chicago Sky 72 Washington Mystics 72 0
Neutral Chicago Sky 74 Washington Mystics 70 -4
at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 75 Washington Mystics 69 -6

Average Pace of Game 143.9
Away Team Controls Pace 140.4
Home Team Controls Pace 147.3

Location Predicted Line
at Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 83 Los Angeles Sparks 74 -9
Neutral Minnesota Lynx 82 Los Angeles Sparks 76 -6
at Los Angeles Sparks Minnesota Lynx 80 Los Angeles Sparks 77 -3

Average Pace of Game 157.2
Away Team Controls Pace 161.5
Home Team Controls Pace 152.9

Location Predicted Line
at Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 92 San Antonio Silver Stars 85 -7
Neutral Phoenix Mercury 90 San Antonio Silver Stars 87 -3
at San Antonio Silver Stars Phoenix Mercury 89 San Antonio Silver Stars 88 -1

Average Pace of Game 177
Away Team Controls Pace 165.8
Home Team Controls Pace 188.6

Location Predicted Line
at Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 73 New York Liberty 69 -4
Neutral Seattle Storm 72 New York Liberty 70 -2
at New York Liberty New York Liberty 72 Seattle Storm 70 -2

Average Pace of Game 141.7
Away Team Controls Pace 144.5
Home Team Controls Pace 138.8

**binomial** · 08-19-11, 06:00 PM

calling it nicely.

does the model take days rest into account?

**ebemiss** · 08-19-11, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by binomial

calling it nicely.

does the model take days rest into account?

No not really. Just overall season numbers and adjustments versus the actual line. Basically using the projections as a guide, then adding in other factors when handicapping the game, like days off, injuries or other circumstances.

**ebemiss** · 08-19-11, 06:28 PM

When capping the NBA, when a team is on short rest or multiple games in a short period of time, I usually add 3-4 points in favor of the rested team. I believe that's what the difference is that the lines makers use as well. I'm not exactly sure about the WNBA maybe a couple at least.

**ebemiss** · 08-19-11, 07:31 PM

2ND Half play

Over 85 Atlanta/Connecticut .5 units

**ebemiss** · 08-19-11, 07:45 PM

Make it a full unit with another .05 on 84.5 over atl/ct

**ebemiss** · 08-21-11, 02:39 AM

Record

52-37 (+17.90)

2nd half experiment

4-4 (+0.32)

Sunday Projections

Location Predicted Line
at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 84 Atlanta Dream 79 -5
Neutral Connecticut Sun 82 Atlanta Dream 80 -2
at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 82 Connecticut Sun 81 -1

Average Pace of Game 162.6
Away Team Controls Pace 165.1
Home Team Controls Pace 160.1

Location Predicted Line
at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 76 Washington Mystics 66 -10
Neutral Indiana Fever 74 Washington Mystics 68 -6
at Washington Mystics Indiana Fever 73 Washington Mystics 69 -4

Average Pace of Game 142
Away Team Controls Pace 142.5
Home Team Controls Pace 141.5

Location Predicted Line
at Tulsa Shock Los Angeles Sparks 79 Tulsa Shock 72 -7
Neutral Los Angeles Sparks 80 Tulsa Shock 70 -10
at Los Angeles Sparks Los Angeles Sparks 82 Tulsa Shock 69 -13

Average Pace of Game 150.7
Away Team Controls Pace 154.7
Home Team Controls Pace 146.8

**ebemiss** · 08-23-11, 12:57 PM

Tuesday

Played

Washington +3
San Antonio +7

totals are tight to my projections, will probably wait to see if there's value in a 2nd half play.

Projections

Location Predicted Line
at Washington Mystics Los Angeles Sparks 76 Washington Mystics 74 -2
Neutral Los Angeles Sparks 77 Washington Mystics 72 -5
at Los Angeles Sparks Los Angeles Sparks 79 Washington Mystics 71 -8

Average Pace of Game 149.5
Away Team Controls Pace 152.5
Home Team Controls Pace 146.4

Location Predicted Line
at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 80 Atlanta Dream 79 -1
Neutral Atlanta Dream 80 Chicago Sky 78 -2
at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 82 Chicago Sky 77 -5

Average Pace of Game 158.4
Away Team Controls Pace 168
Home Team Controls Pace 149.1

Location Predicted Line
at Tulsa Shock Minnesota Lynx 82 Tulsa Shock 69 -13
Neutral Minnesota Lynx 83 Tulsa Shock 68 -15
at Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 85 Tulsa Shock 66 -19

Average Pace of Game 151.2
Away Team Controls Pace 151
Home Team Controls Pace 151.4

Location Predicted Line
at Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 91 New York Liberty 84 -7
Neutral Phoenix Mercury 90 New York Liberty 86 -4
at New York Liberty Phoenix Mercury 88 New York Liberty 87 -1

Average Pace of Game 175.8
Away Team Controls Pace 167.9
Home Team Controls Pace 183.9

Location Predicted Line
at Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 73 San Antonio Silver Stars 69 -4
Neutral Seattle Storm 72 San Antonio Silver Stars 71 -1
at San Antonio Silver Stars San Antonio Silver Stars 72 Seattle Storm 70 -2

Average Pace of Game 142.3
Away Team Controls Pace 142.4
Home Team Controls Pace 142.1

**ebemiss** · 08-23-11, 06:55 PM

2nd half

Under 78 Washington/LA
Washington +1.5

1 unit each

**ebemiss** · 08-25-11, 01:06 PM

Record

52-39 (+15.70)

2nd half experiment

5-5 (+0.22)

Thursday

Under 141.5 Seattle/Tulsa

**ebemiss** · 08-26-11, 11:23 AM

Record

53-39 (+16.70)

2nd half experiment

5-5 (+0.22)

Over 178 Phoenix/Connecticut (2 units)
Over 86.5 Pho/Conn 1st half (0.5 unit)

with or without Tarasi.

Projections

Location Predicted Line
at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 93 Phoenix Mercury 89 -4
Neutral Connecticut Sun 91 Phoenix Mercury 91 0
at Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 92 Connecticut Sun 90 -2

Average Pace of Game 182.1
Away Team Controls Pace 187.5
Home Team Controls Pace 176.8

Location Predicted Line
at Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 81 San Antonio Silver Stars 71 -10
Neutral Minnesota Lynx 79 San Antonio Silver Stars 73 -6
at San Antonio Silver Stars Minnesota Lynx 78 San Antonio Silver Stars 74 -4

Average Pace of Game 152.3
Away Team Controls Pace 151
Home Team Controls Pace 153.7

ocation Predicted Line
at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 75 Washington Mystics 68 -7
Neutral Chicago Sky 74 Washington Mystics 70 -4
at Washington Mystics Chicago Sky 72 Washington Mystics 71 -1

Average Pace of Game 143.7
Away Team Controls Pace 147.1
Home Team Controls Pace 140.3

Location Predicted Line
at Los Angeles Sparks Los Angeles Sparks 81 Tulsa Shock 69 -12
Neutral Los Angeles Sparks 80 Tulsa Shock 70 -10
at Tulsa Shock Los Angeles Sparks 78 Tulsa Shock 72 -6

Average Pace of Game 149.9
Away Team Controls Pace 146
Home Team Controls Pace 153.9

**ebemiss** · 08-27-11, 11:58 AM

Record

55-39 (+19.20)

2nd half experiment

5-5 (+0.22)

Saturday

Under 157.5 Atlanta/Indiana 1 unit

Projections (Sat/Sun)

Location Predicted Line
at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 81 Atlanta Dream 75 -6
Neutral Indiana Fever 79 Atlanta Dream 77 -2
at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 78 Indiana Fever 78 0

Average Pace of Game 156
Away Team Controls Pace 162.2
Home Team Controls Pace 150

Sunday

Location Predicted Line
at San Antonio Silver Stars Minnesota Lynx 78 San Antonio Silver Stars 74 -4
Neutral Minnesota Lynx 79 San Antonio Silver Stars 73 -6
at Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 81 San Antonio Silver Stars 71 -10

Average Pace of Game 152.3
Away Team Controls Pace 153.7
Home Team Controls Pace 151

Location Predicted Line
at Tulsa Shock Connecticut Sun 81 Tulsa Shock 71 -10
Neutral Connecticut Sun 82 Tulsa Shock 69 -13
at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 84 Tulsa Shock 68 -16

Average Pace of Game 151.5
Away Team Controls Pace 155.4
Home Team Controls Pace 147.6

Location Predicted Line
at Washington Mystics Phoenix Mercury 90 Washington Mystics 84 -6
Neutral Phoenix Mercury 91 Washington Mystics 82 -9
at Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 93 Washington Mystics 81 -12

Average Pace of Game 173.4
Away Team Controls Pace 181.8
Home Team Controls Pace 165.3

Location Predicted Line
at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 74 New York Liberty 72 -2
Neutral New York Liberty 74 Chicago Sky 73 -1
at New York Liberty New York Liberty 75 Chicago Sky 71 -4

Average Pace of Game 146.8
Away Team Controls Pace 150.4
Home Team Controls Pace 143.1

Location Predicted Line
at Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 76 Los Angeles Sparks 70 -6
Neutral Seattle Storm 74 Los Angeles Sparks 71 -3
at Los Angeles Sparks Seattle Storm 73 Los Angeles Sparks 73 0

Average Pace of Game 145.6
Away Team Controls Pace 151.1
Home Team Controls Pace 140.2

**ebemiss** · 08-28-11, 03:00 PM

Record

55-40 (+18.10)

2nd half experiment

5-5 (+0.22)

Sunday

Under 146 NY/Chicago 1 unit

**ebemiss** · 08-30-11, 01:41 PM

Record

55-41 (+17.00)

2nd half experiment

5-5 (+0.22)

Tuesday

San Antonio -3 1.5 units
Over 173.5 Phoenix/Tulsa 1 unit

**ebemiss** · 08-30-11, 07:33 PM

Add

2nd half Atlanta/Indiana over 82 1 unit

**ebemiss** · 08-30-11, 08:00 PM

add

over 2nd half 75.5 minnesota/washington 1 unit

**ebemiss** · 08-30-11, 10:24 PM

add

Under 73 seattle/la 2nd half 1 unit

**ebemiss** · 09-01-11, 04:12 PM

Record

56-42 (+17.40)

2nd half experiment

6-7 (-0.98)

Thursday

San Antonio -1.5 (1.5 units)

**ebemiss** · 09-02-11, 04:45 PM

Record

57-42 (+18.90)

2nd half experiment

6-7 (-0.98)

Friday

Under 151.5 Connecticut/Indiana 1 unit

**ebemiss** · 09-03-11, 12:59 PM

Record

58-42 (+19.90)

2nd half experiment

6-7 (-0.98)

Saturday

Over 176.5 Phoenix/Los Angeles 1.5 units

**ebemiss** · 09-04-11, 02:32 PM

Record

58-43 (+18.25)

2nd half experiment

6-7 (-0.98)

Sunday

Under 145 Chicago/Indiana 2 units

**ebemiss** · 09-07-11, 05:19 PM

Record

58-44 (+16.05)

2nd half experiment

6-7 (-0.98)

Wednesday

Under 144.5 Washington/Indiana

**ebemiss** · 09-15-11, 12:36 PM

Thursday

Under 147 Indiana/NY (2 units)
Over 161 Seattle/Phoenix 1 unit

Projections

Location Predicted Line
at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 75 New York Liberty 71 -4
Neutral Indiana Fever 73 New York Liberty 72 -1
at New York Liberty New York Liberty 74 Indiana Fever 72 -2

Average Pace of Game 145.5
Away Team Controls Pace 144.4
Home Team Controls Pace 146.6

Location Predicted Line
at Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 84 Phoenix Mercury 78 -6
Neutral Seattle Storm 83 Phoenix Mercury 80 -3
at Phoenix Mercury Seattle Storm 81 Phoenix Mercury 81 0

Average Pace of Game 162.8
Away Team Controls Pace 171
Home Team Controls Pace 154.9

**ebemiss** · 09-15-11, 10:04 PM

2nd half WNBA Seattle -.5 1 unit

**ebemiss** · 09-16-11, 01:02 PM

Friday

Connecticut -4 1.5 units
San Antonio +9 1 unit

**ebemiss** · 09-22-11, 07:00 PM

2nd half over 81 Atl/Indiana 1 unit

**ebemiss** · 09-25-11, 11:00 AM

Record

60-47 (+15.75)

2nd half experiment

7-8 (-1.08)

Over 157 Atlanta/Indiana 1.5 units

**ebemiss** · 09-27-11, 06:16 PM

Record

61-47 (+17.25)

2nd half experiment

7-8 (-1.08)

Tuesday 9/27/11

Over 156.5 Atlanta/Indiana 1.5 units