WNBA Projections

[ebemiss]

I use league averages for my models. That gives me a starting point to plug each teams stats into and I adjust them based on on court results.

Here's a link for possession creation

http://www.wnba.com/storm/news/stats101.html

Here's a link to pace/efficiency numbers from last year (WNBA). I'm sure there are others out there.

http://tracker.stormbasketball.com/?p=1496

[ManBearPig]

I caught that first link, but missed the second one...good stuff. Just checking because these are important to include. If you're serious about this stuff and don't already have it pick up Basketball on Paper, very good book on basketball statistics by Dean Oliver.

[pentaguard]

Over 152.5 today?

[Ratzz]

i would guess towards the UNDER 153 (BETUS) is more likely...

but i do like the SUN +2 in the 1st Half...

[ebemiss]

It doesn't matter how much handicapping or having the best model. Stuff like this can happen.

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/2011WNBA

Last week 25 points were scored in a game in the last 1:46. Tonight 4 points were scored in 1:54.

I can generate the numbers, but if anyone can figure out the end of these games. I'd listen. Just an observation

[ManBearPig]

This is precisely why they call it gambling...

[ebemiss]

Saturday's game. Line at greek is wash -5 and 157. Almost exactly on the projection.

Location Predicted Line
at Tulsa Shock Washington Mystics 81 Tulsa Shock 76 -5
Neutral Washington Mystics 82 Tulsa Shock 74 -8
at Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 84 Tulsa Shock 73 -11


Average Pace of Game 156.6
Away Team Controls Pace 152.5
Home Team Controls Pace 160.7

[ManBearPig]

nm...

[ebemiss]

I don't understand why you used another power ranking when I've been posting a projection for each game. It doesn't make any sense.

[ManBearPig]

I don't understand why you used another power ranking when I've been posting a projection for each game. It doesn't make any sense.

Really? Where? You showed me a link for efficiency numbers...these are vastly different than power rankings and if you don't think so then you need to read a book. You don't use efficiency numbers to show the strength of a team. You use them to determine the offensive/defensive output per 100 possessions. You can argue that with Kenpom or Sagrin if you want. In fact those numbers you showed are from last year, so I don't see how those are those relevant to this season anyways? I hope you have 2011 efficiency numbers as well that you are using to set the pace. Unless you posted something somewhere else, which doesn't help me out any, you have shown no power rankings. I'm just trying to help here and I'm sorry it's not to your liking. It's a simple task.

[ebemiss]

I have posted a projected spread based on power rankings for each game. That's where the projected spread comes from MY RANKINGS. I've used the pace and efficiency to help determine the totals I post.

Every game I posted I have a projected power ranking spread, why the hell would I want to know what statfox is doing.

Don't lecture me on how to create a model, read a book or consult so and so, my numbers are winning especially the totals that are off from vegas. I'll just keep the shit to myself, you can worry about creating your own.

I knew this was a bad idea posting this shit. You give people a look inside of what you are doing, and it's still not good enough.

[ManBearPig]

I have posted a projected spread based on power rankings for each game. That's where the projected spread comes from MY RANKINGS. I've used the pace and efficiency to help determine the totals I post.

Every game I posted I have a projected power ranking spread, why the hell would I want to know what statfox is doing.

Don't lecture me on how to create a model, read a book or consult so and so, my numbers are winning especially the totals that are off from vegas. I'll just keep the shit to myself, you can worry about creating your own.

I knew this was a bad idea posting this shit. You give people a look inside of what you are doing, and it's still not good enough.

That whole post is BS and baseless...you need to learn how to communicate yourself better in the future and not knock people for trying to be helpful. I could care less if you share or not but when someone helps you, maybe you could give them more insight instead of shit on their time and effort. Get a clue dude. Models come and go so don't think yours is some epiphany. I'm fine on my own and not losing any sleep over it. You're right I shouldn't lecture you because your clueless to begin with. I'd wish you luck but you'll probably get offended by that too. Find someone else to do your work for you.

[ebemiss]

You are an absolute moron. I couldn't communicate any better how it worked. Each team has a pace, 3 possible totals, and each game has a projected winner. Pretty simple. I told you the average pace has been successful and the sides are still volatile due to lack of data.

If I'm clueless and you are asking me questions and tracking these numbers, what does that make YOU?

This model works and I've never acted like it was the greatest thing on earth. I asked for help. When I questioned why you used ANOTHER set of power rankings, you attacked me and my intelligence.

Good luck.

[ebemiss]

Classy that you erased a post you made at 5:03 am, at 3:08 PM after I made my point at 3:02 PM.

[ManBearPig]

Moron? well since you're incapable of being civil I'm all but done with this but I know exactly what you gave me and you're still not clued in to what I'm saying. You've only given me total that you've generated, how the hell do I know how you created them. I'm was only tracking numbers not calculating anything so how does that make me a moron because I put them in a spreadsheet for you to look at?

I know exactly what you posted and I'm well aware that those comprise of pace and efficiency, at no point did I insinuate that you were an idiot in how you created them or were attempting to use them. I only tried to help find another way to look at them. I just can't understand how someone can be so fired up because I pulled some power rankings, which are entirely different. I even told you what I was doing and you never said anything about it so there was obvious a major miscommunication.

I'm not going to continue with more juvenile behavior and yes I was short earlier, but I was rather annoyed that you couldn't just ignore the numbers all together or find some other way to incorporate something instead of talking down to me like I'm inferior, it came across as crass and inconsiderate, which I reacted negatively to for that I apologize - I'm really not trying to make enemies, I'm just trying to help...that is all.

[ManBearPig]

...Me erasing my post had nothing to do with anything you said except the fact that it's not necessary to share with you since you obviously don't care to use it. I'm free to do what I wish, it proves nothing.

[ebemiss]

Good luck.

[ebemiss]

...Me erasing my post had nothing to do with anything you said except the fact that it's not necessary to share with you since you obviously don't care to use it. I'm free to do what I wish, it proves nothing.

Of course I wanted to use it. I downloaded it and I have on my desktop. ALL I did was ask a question why you used STAT FOX'S power rankings on your excel sheet, when I thought the whole purpose was to help track MY numbers.

That's it, I asked a question. From there it goes sideways.

I appreciate the help I honestly do, but it doesn't make a lick of sense to me to post an excel sheet with my totals and STAT FOX'S rankings. That's why I asked. I didn't think I was insulting you, I just asked a question.

Again. This is ridiculous. Good luck in the future.

[ManBearPig]

You are right this is a little ridiculous and I guess I shouldn't have went off on you like that and should've processed what you were saying or asking first. That's really not my style and makes me appear to be one of the posters that I often rave about. These things do really interest me and when someone is willing to share I'm all for it. With that being said if you want me to re-post I will later I will otherwise let's just let bigons be bigons.

As I said in my post i removed I did generate my own rankings that I was going to use and compare to what you were getting. It doesn't use pace or efficiency but rather the data collected from the current games played and the spreads. Today it has Minny winning by 8 and the total around 164.

[ManBearPig]

...and just to answer your question on why I incorporated the Statfox numbers what because that's the only place I could find power rankings for WNBA and my intent was to simply show which team was considered more powerful based on these rankings and you could correlate which way the total was leaning. As in, is the better or stronger team controlling the pace or is it the home team or away team? Or do certain teams that are evenly match perform differently against each other.

I wasn't trying to control or belittle what you were doing, just add another element for comparison. I've found a similar process successful in the NBA and wondered if it translated.

[ebemiss]

...and just to answer your question on why I incorporated the Statfox numbers what because that's the only place I could find power rankings for WNBA and my intent was to simply show which team was considered more powerful based on these rankings and you could correlate which way the total was leaning. As in, is the better or stronger team controlling the pace or is it the home team or away team? Or do certain teams that are evenly match perform differently against each other.

I wasn't trying to control or belittle what you were doing, just add another element for comparison. I've found a similar process successful in the NBA and wondered if it translated.

Once again. If you were trying to find out which team was "more powerful", why didn't you use the numbers that I had. I have a clear winner and loser of each game. Every game that I've posted shows who is favored. It's not always right, but It shows a projected spread based on my power rankings. What you did, and are still trying to explain, does not make sense.

Here's the problem. YOU did want to control or want to create your own rating and think it's easy. YOU posted a side and a total for yesterday's game. BOTH were wrong, and it didn't have anything to do with this thread.

I've tried to help, and you still continue the nonsense. I won again yesterday with an under and once I saw your created "rating" that showed the game going over, I knew I was on the right side. It's not easy, and you are trying to belittle my efforts. Good luck

[ebemiss]

Sunday

Location Predicted Line
at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 78 Chicago Sky 75 -3
Neutral Chicago Sky 77 Connecticut Sun 77 0
at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 78 Connecticut Sun 75 -3


Average Pace of Game 153.7
Away Team Controls Pace 148
Home Team Controls Pace 159.5

Location Predicted Line
at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 86 Minnesota Lynx 84 -2
Neutral Minnesota Lynx 86 Atlanta Dream 84 -2
at Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 87 Atlanta Dream 83 -4


Average Pace of Game 170
Away Team Controls Pace 161.5
Home Team Controls Pace 178.7

Location Predicted Line
at Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 88 Indiana Fever 87 -1
Neutral Indiana Fever 89 Phoenix Mercury 86 -3
at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 90 Phoenix Mercury 85 -5


Average Pace of Game 174.7
Away Team Controls Pace 166.8
Home Team Controls Pace 182.8

Location Predicted Line
at Los Angeles Sparks Seattle Storm 74 Los Angeles Sparks 72 -2
Neutral Seattle Storm 76 Los Angeles Sparks 70 -6
at Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 77 Los Angeles Sparks 69 -8


Average Pace of Game 146.2
Away Team Controls Pace 142.3
Home Team Controls Pace 150.1

[ManBearPig]

Once again. If you were trying to find out which team was "more powerful", why didn't you use the numbers that I had. I have a clear winner and loser of each game. Every game that I've posted shows who is favored. It's not always right, but It shows a projected spread based on my power rankings. What you did, and are still trying to explain, does not make sense.

There are many types of power rankings and I'm still not sure where you've posted yours, if you did then you didn't make it very apparent what they were. It's real easy dumb it down for people instead of having them make assumptions.

Edit: I think I just realized...you're right I am a moron. Don't you feel better about yourself today. Happy Father's day to me.

Here's the problem. YOU did want to control or want to create your own rating and think it's easy. YOU posted a side and a total for yesterday's game. BOTH were wrong, and it didn't have anything to do with this thread.

Two things here - No I don't think it's easy and no I didn't create my own power ratings - never said I did. What I did was something completely different that's not anything more than a start to something. I never claimed it to be correct or incorrect. I don't expect you to understand that, but it is what it is.

I've tried to help, and you still continue the nonsense. I won again yesterday with an under and once I saw your created "rating" that showed the game going over, I knew I was on the right side. It's not easy, and you are trying to belittle my efforts. Good luck

How have you tried to help me, I thought you were open to discussions and yet you are just not open to anything unrelated to your stuff. You just continue to be offended by every little thing. How is me finding additional information belittling you, especially if it's easily correctable. You're way too sensitive about this. I thought this was an open discussion forum, but you don't seem open to any discussion about anything. I was actually trying to help you analyze your data, believe it or not, and that's it.

[ebemiss]

Stay out of my thread from this point forward. Thank you

[ManBearPig]

Stay out of my thread from this point forward. Thank you

Not that you can enforce that but I don't care to deal with you anyways so that's not really a problem...I have better things to do than deal with elitists like yourself. I've seen many like you come and go and you'll go sooner than later. Good Day

[ebemiss]

Here's what I found going on with the totals early season. Small sample 16 tracked games.

If you just blindly played every total based on the closing line. Projections are 9-7.

If the projection differs from the closing by:

>1.5 points- 5-2
>2.0 points- 5-1
>2.5 points- 4-0

The bigger the difference between my number and the closing number the better thus far. Something to look at going forward.

Also the ATS LOSER is having more of an effect on the pace scenario than the winner. The team that has lost the game against the spread has had a bigger impact on the total in 11 of 16 games early on.

Find the loser and lean towards their pace is what that is telling you. Not exactly the easiest thing in the world, but I'm interested to see if this trend continues.

Tuesday's numbers

Location Predicted Line
at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 84 Chicago Sky 79 -5
Neutral Atlanta Dream 83 Chicago Sky 80 -3
at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 82 Atlanta Dream 81 -1


Average Pace of Game 163.2
Away Team Controls Pace 152.4
Home Team Controls Pace 174.4

Location Predicted Line
at Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 73 Indiana Fever 72 -1
Neutral Indiana Fever 74 Washington Mystics 71 -3
at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 75 Washington Mystics 70 -5


Average Pace of Game 145.2
Away Team Controls Pace 145
Home Team Controls Pace 145.3

Location Predicted Line
at San Antonio Silver Stars San Antonio Silver Stars 92 Phoenix Mercury 88 -4
Neutral San Antonio Silver Stars 90 Phoenix Mercury 90 0
at Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 91 San Antonio Silver Stars 89 -2


Average Pace of Game 180.3
Away Team Controls Pace 190.5
Home Team Controls Pace 170.4

Location Predicted Line
at Tulsa Shock Seattle Storm 82 Tulsa Shock 72 -10
Neutral Seattle Storm 83 Tulsa Shock 70 -13
at Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 85 Tulsa Shock 69 -16


Average Pace of Game 153.7
Away Team Controls Pace 147.2
Home Team Controls Pace 160.3

Location Predicted Line
at Los Angeles Sparks Los Angeles Sparks 76 New York Liberty 74 -2
Neutral New York Liberty 75 Los Angeles Sparks 75 0
at New York Liberty New York Liberty 77 Los Angeles Sparks 73 -4


Average Pace of Game 150.4
Away Team Controls Pace 148.7
Home Team Controls Pace 152.1

[ebemiss]

Every line tomorrow has moved toward my average pace numbers since the opener according to scoresandodds.com. I have to believe that's a good sign even if it doesn't turn out to be a winning play.

Some one with influence has moved these lines. Now the next thing to track going forward on some of these moves, is, are the initial moves winning or the move back up or down winning?

[Bouzouki]

Interesting system, I have a basketball system too and have just started trying it out in WNBA this year.

[luckythansmart]

Ebemiss,
I appreciate what you are doing and I am trying to understand your numbers.
Using the Chi/Atl for tomorrow, your model has Tuesday's numbers as

Location Predicted Line
at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 84 Chicago Sky 79 -5
Neutral Atlanta Dream 83 Chicago Sky 80 -3
at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 82 Atlanta Dream 81 -1


Average Pace of Game 163.2
Away Team Controls Pace 152.4
Home Team Controls Pace 174.4

Are you saying that Atl is projected to win by 5?
Also, since we know the game is being played at Atl, why is it necessary
to provide data if the game is played at a neutral or at the away teams?
Isn't it just confusing things?
Also, which total is your model saying the outcome should be?
Avg, Away team or home team?
How would one know who controls the pace?

Keep up your effort and I hope it helps.

[ebemiss]

Ebemiss,
I appreciate what you are doing and I am trying to understand your numbers.
Using the Chi/Atl for tomorrow, your model has Tuesday's numbers as

Location Predicted Line
at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 84 Chicago Sky 79 -5
Neutral Atlanta Dream 83 Chicago Sky 80 -3
at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 82 Atlanta Dream 81 -1


Average Pace of Game 163.2
Away Team Controls Pace 152.4
Home Team Controls Pace 174.4

Are you saying that Atl is projected to win by 5?
Also, since we know the game is being played at Atl, why is it necessary
to provide data if the game is played at a neutral or at the away teams?
Isn't it just confusing things?
Also, which total is your model saying the outcome should be?
Avg, Away team or home team?
How would one know who controls the pace?

Keep up your effort and I hope it helps.

Yes. Atlanta would be a 5 point favorite according to my numbers. I also list the neutral and away as that's how my program is set up. I don't have a separate button to click for neutral court so this was the easiest way to add that without having to go back and run each separately. I apologize if it's confusing, but that's the way I have to display it.

Average pace total has been the best. Closest to acutal line and producing winning results.

I don't know who will control the pace, that's where handicapping comes into play. I'm just taking stats and giving "an idea" how the game may go if one team or the other controls the pace.

These numbers are statistically based. They are not my opinion. They don't factor in injuries or other factors. They are however a good starting point for handicapping the game.

[luckythansmart]

Thanks for explaining.

I've been tracking the ATS results.
There's been 30 games played so far out of 208 games (14% of the season).
The below ATS is from scoresandodds.
So far:
Home = 15
Away = 14
Push = 1

Fav = 14 (Home = 12, Away = 2)
Dog = 15 (Home = 3 (3 won outright), Away = 12 (9 won outright))
Push =1

There was only 3 games which the Dog covered but didn't win.
All 3 games was with Tulsa which had high double digit spreads.
Otherwise if the Dogs covered, they also won 12 out of 15.

It's early and Vegas is still finding which is the better teams
and maybe that why the results I got is interesting.
So if you like the Dog in a game, play the ML as you don't need the points
and will get a better rate of return.
This will properly change when Vegas gets to know
which are the better teams and tighten the lines or have the correct Fav.

Don't mean to highjack your thread but thought it might be helpful to
those who follow your results.

Good Luck to all

[ebemiss]

No problem. That's great info on the dogs. Something to keep an eye on.

[beyond]

hard to predict these games right now

[ebemiss]

Looks like the over in Atlanta/Chicago game (early game) will fit into the >2.5 point difference from my line. Right now it's at 159.5.

[ebemiss]

Will continue to track record for totals, and which if any are working, but I'll start to post my plays as well. Plays will be anywhere from 1 to 2 units. Tonight so far

record 0-0 (0.00)

Washington +2 1.5 units
Under 146.5 Wash/Indiana 1 unit
Seattle -6.5 1 unit