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Kob do you bet all the.over unders in your table as well?Comment -
Getting smokedComment -
hey i took the heat first half and since they didnt cover i took them second half and doubled up. still thanks kop for making me even look at the heat. still banked off heat.Comment -
breakevenMiami at Charlotte
Charlotte is being realistic about this game that Winning it is out of the question, Paul Silas just want his team to keep it to low double digit lost where possible, a sound advice by a good coach.
The ATS machine = Miami, another fast start for the Heats is coming. Corey Maggette and DeSagana Diop will make a formal team request for a stress leave immediately after this game.
Take Miami -5.5 at half time. (.5 unit)
LA Clippers at San Antonio
Is GSW harder to beat on the road than the aging Spurs, dont you think ?
Either way, it's gonna be a close game or LAC upset the spurs by a good margin.
Take LA Clippers +4.5 (.5 unit)
Utah at Denver
A fast start at home, that's what the Nug can do. With a back to back game, got rape by Kobe in LA, now dealing with a high altitude of the rocky mount it will be a bit much to handle for these Jazz people. It's time for the return of Jerry Sloan.
Take Denver -5.5 at half time. (.5 unit)
score: 63-46 denver
Take Denver -10.5 (.5 unit)100-117 den
ytd: w/L record: 8-4
+2 unitsComment -
well kop u had my knicks losing.. i give you that. we need baron so bad.Comment -
[ATTACH]35855[/ATTACH]Comment -
Hi kobstopa, thanks for good advice everytime. May I ask how you do the projection or the simulation? just wondering how some people manage to simulate the game. Thanks
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New Jersey at Orlando
The Nets will heavily depend on D.Will to generate offense, but they are short on talents and on the
road at Orlando it will be tough for them to even put 86 to 90's points on a 31% FG shooting, unless the 3's will drop by a luck factor. But this too will be tough to make as Orlando is known for a good parameter shooting team. In their last game at ATL 70-106(L), they have a significant mismatch at forward to centre, again this will continue to be the case as Johan Petro/Mehmet Okur are no match or even contain Dwight Howard.
Orlando at home can put up these number: avg 50% FG & 40% 3's FG which translate to around 99 to 115 points range.
Orlando should win by a good double digit.
Orlando -10.5 (1 unit)
Chicago at Sacramento
Chicago shouldn't have much trouble winning this game but it will be a tough one, which similar to their last road at the Lakers
game, if not even harder, especially this earlier in the season where Sacramento's roster is in full form.
Sacramento +8 (1 unit)
New York at LA Lakers
Take under 196.5 (1 unit)Comment -
Hi kobstopa,
Can I ask why you think Dallas will lose by 14 points to Oaklahoma?
Has Dallas lost some keyplayers for this season or is several of their players injuried?
I am not saying you are wrong in your prediction, I was just seeing it as a gift Dallas getting +6,5 points. Also a known fact that Dallas has always been one of the best away team season after season.
Perhaps being the champion is a curse?
Looking forward hearing back from you with your knowledge and insights.Comment -
there're so many different ways; no absolute right or wrong way, drawn by factor from following:
-watch the game it self & understand playing style by teams to get a good feel knowledge about the game from a coaching stand point etc
-24x7 follow news coverage; teams issue such as injuries, roster changes etc, follow local news, follow twitters
-follow teams stat & key performance, ATS trend; teams historical ie some slow started, some teams have a history playing well against a certain teams at a certain time of the year etc.
-schedule, some team handle b2b games better than others
...................................
......................................ca n go forever
but you have the idea.Comment -
by 14 points is not an absolute thing, I have wrong before just like everyone else; I think OKC will win again home, these guys are in full form, even b2b games.
at the 6.5 is about 50/50 from an actuarial number & that's where the book got their prediction from.
Like you said, Dal is best away team - true, & peak toward end of year etc, & they have a history of slow start as well, after last year championship they're relax now, they've won one, they had reached their goal; nobody talking about a 2nd champ seriously. Jason Kidd, Dirk, Marion are just happy with their first one, even Lamar he doesn't care of winning more.
Other factor is the plus/minus = chandler out/ Lamar in, players are still adjust to playing with each other & changes of rotation, these thing take time. Every teams in the league is rushing through for this season with their camp. OKC have all their core players returned, only issue now is Westbrook appear to be a loose canon but they are dealing with it.Comment -
2/3, a 1 unit gainNew Jersey at Orlando
The Nets will heavily depend on D.Will to generate offense, but they are short on talents and on the
road at Orlando it will be tough for them to even put 86 to 90's points on a 31% FG shooting, unless the 3's will drop by a luck factor. But this too will be tough to make as Orlando is known for a good parameter shooting team. In their last game at ATL 70-106(L), they have a significant mismatch at forward to centre, again this will continue to be the case as Johan Petro/Mehmet Okur are no match or even contain Dwight Howard.
Orlando at home can put up these number: avg 50% FG & 40% 3's FG which translate to around 99 to 115 points range.
Orlando should win by a good double digit.
Orlando -10.5 (1 unit) 94-78 orl
Chicago at Sacramento
Chicago shouldn't have much trouble winning this game but it will be a tough one, which similar to their last road at the Lakers
game, if not even harder, especially this earlier in the season where Sacramento's roster is in full form.
Sacramento +8 (1 unit)
New York at LA Lakers
Take under 196.5 (1 unit) 99-82 la
ytd: w/L record: 10-5
+3 unitsComment -
congrats kobstopa,
you seems to be very consistent
BHComment -
[ATTACH]35889[/ATTACH]Comment -
Keep up the great work as usual bud.
Just an fyi, if you are goin to keep an accurate record of units this season, you need to include the vig. Therefore, when you win 2 out of 3 like yesterday, you dont win a full 1x, you win +0.9x. And on wednesday, when you went 2-2, you don't actually break even, you lose -0.2x z(but I think you only had a half unit on those plays so you would be at -0.1x on that day).
The vig is why sports investing is so tough to beat and you have to include that in your records to be accurate. If you are not going to include the vig, you should probably just keep a win/loss record since the unit amounts are wrong.
Good luck buddy. I've always considered you one of the best nba cappers, but dont forget to include the vig or you can't prove it. Keep up the great work
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hornets -8??? my sportsbook has them at -2 wtfComment -
^^ this. been following your thread too though, appreciate the info and picks! bol this seasonComment -
it's killing me to keep these as it is, i really dont care about record anyway, at the end if +100 units they can round to -10 to 20 units off, i think all the erudite followers would know that, I just want to put all my effort on the actual capping. glKeep up the great work as usual bud. Just an fyi, if you are goin to keep an accurate record of units this season, you need to include the vig. Therefore, when you win 2 out of 3 like yesterday, you dont win a full 1x, you win +0.9x. And on wednesday, when you went 2-2, you don't actually break even, you lose -0.2x z(but I think you only had a half unit on those plays so you would be at -0.1x on that day). The vig is why sports investing is so tough to beat and you have to include that in your records to be accurate. If you are not going to include the vig, you should probably just keep a win/loss record since the unit amounts are wrong. Good luck buddy. I've always considered you one of the best nba cappers, but dont forget to include the vig or you can't prove it. Keep up the great work Comment -
Phoenix at New Orleans
This is had to be a slow started of Phoenix season ever, unlike in the past 2 years I think the camp didn't go well
with the amount of time they have to prepare, appear to struggle in getting it together, but I dont think the aging is not the issue here, one of the weakest link at this point is Channing Frye's poor shooting, scored just 5 points in last 2 games. In any-case coming to to the Hornet will be as tough challenge to beat this team eventhough they had a narrow lost at home 84-85 (L) earlier on.
New Orleans -2.5 (1 unit)
Orlando at Charlotte
Charlotte had been a giant killer at home, their have an outstanding performance against the Heats & the Bucks
but today's game is a slight different match up again, good luck in trying to contain D12; Orlando will go to the old fashion inside and out game, another solid double-double from Dwight Howard. Orlando should win between 6 to 8 points.
Orlando -4.5 (1 unit)
Detroit at Boston
This is a must win for Boston after a bad road trip 0-3, they needed this one and they aint gonna play from behind
it should be off to a fast start, take Detroit off from their shooting rhythm earlier on and wear them down in the second half. The fan will get what they want & it's all forgotten a 0-3 record.
Take Boston -6.5 at half time. (1 unit)
Toronto at Dallas
Just like Boston, another 0-3 that need to get off to a fast start at home.
Dallas -4.5 at half time. (1 unit)Comment -
Tailing you on all them but the Orlando pick. No Jameer makes it a no play for me.Comment -
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we are free roll from here, Go New Orleans, crush them in 2nd halfPhoenix at New Orleans
This is had to be a slow started of Phoenix season ever, unlike in the past 2 years I think the camp didn't go well
with the amount of time they have to prepare, appear to struggle in getting it together, but I dont think the aging is not the issue here, one of the weakest link at this point is Channing Frye's poor shooting, scored just 5 points in last 2 games. In any-case coming to to the Hornet will be as tough challenge to beat this team eventhough they had a narrow lost at home 84-85 (L) earlier on.
New Orleans -2.5 (1 unit)
Orlando at Charlotte
Charlotte had been a giant killer at home, their have an outstanding performance against the Heats & the Bucks
but today's game is a slight different match up again, good luck in trying to contain D12; Orlando will go to the old fashion inside and out game, another solid double-double from Dwight Howard. Orlando should win between 6 to 8 points.
Orlando -4.5 (1 unit)100-79 orl
Detroit at Boston
This is a must win for Boston after a bad road trip 0-3, they needed this one and they aint gonna play from behind
it should be off to a fast start, take Detroit off from their shooting rhythm earlier on and wear them down in the second half. The fan will get what they want & it's all forgotten a 0-3 record.
Take Boston -6.5 at half time. (1 unit) 50-43 bos
Toronto at Dallas
Just like Boston, another 0-3 that need to get off to a fast start at home.
Dallas -4.5 at half time. (1 unit) 50-46 killer Maav, 2 errors, 1. they allow that 2 points with 20 sec to the half, 2. terry need to take that 3's, idiot. Comment -
doesn't look like hornets will cover. I didn't want to touch this game and does look like gordon is too big apart of the hornets offense.
How are you doing in the nba handicapping contest? are you rank 1?Comment -
ytd: w/L record: 12-7
+2.5 units
as someone suggested, I vig off .5 unit for another break even day.Comment
I think Orl should win by 6 but no more. Dwight will muscle his way, I think