I'm with you on the totals, but I'm rolling with the road dogs. I know you say that game four presents a better opportunity for the road dogs, and that would follow traditional NBA wisdom, however, I think this year there are additional factors at play; namely, the Mavs superior road record and ability to pull out road wins and the fact that the Bulls rarely lose back-to-back games (not since February, in fact). The Mavs are veteran laden team that know what it takes to win on the road, while the Bulls make the needed adjustments to avoid back to back losses.
When you take those factors, apply a little zig-zag and add in the intangibles of both of these teams needing to respond to a home loss, I think that gives me enough to roll with the road dogs here.
Good luck...can't wait for these games! Nice call on the Boston/Cubs game too...