NBA Daily Picks

[kobstopa]

[ATTACH]27797[/ATTACH]


OKC at Dallas - West Finals Game 1
And here we go, the sprint is on to the finishing line. Dirk and the Mavs been here before & looks like a beautiful familiar journey to the ultimate goal, everything fall into places, the evil Lakers is gone, no Kobe to worry about. However, the Heats is still lurking in the east.

But there's a simple, yet interesting factor in this series: Dallas had gone 8-0 ATS at home + a solid home court in regular season, they play consistent defense and their offense too is solid in production form from a combination of deep bench + a good starting five. Overall they really well together in a ten or more possible rotations/team configurations at any one time; now that is massive and that's why they had escaped Portland and LA a week earlier without a sweat.

As for OKC, this is their first conference final and they had earned it but yet to have their first trip to the finals.
At this point their roster is deep enough to challenge Dallas in every positions, except a few key bench. As expected, they are a young team but can play solid defense and can put up a good offense to have a decent series. The only one concern for them is KD has a tendency to go cold and point blank with his shooting on the road against tier one defense.

Oklahoma City:
Over is 18-7-1 in OKC last 26 Tue. games.
OKC are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.
Over is 7-3 in OKC last 10 vs. NBA Southwest.

Dallas:
DAL are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games.
DAL are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.

As for this game, we have two good jump shooting teams match up full of energy can go with a fast pace transitions. Together with my theorem: 2011 series opening game goes over 80% or better. Taking over 191.5 is the way to go. At home Dallas will setup for 3's specialists: the Jet, Dirk, and Stojakovic to drill it from downtown. We can at least expect the Mavs to cover the line for the opener. At least I don't think we'll see Dallas eats OKC like a happy hour meals, not yet anyway.


Take Dal (-5.5)/Over 191.5

[kobstopa]

Yankees at Tampa Bay
Tampa is running hot right now, threw in David Price at pitch and back at home, them Yankees and Burnett is in trouble, & make it L6. New York is in complete disarray right now, coming to this game they are 5 zip at home. The only upside for them right now is a good get away from lynch mob and media circus at home.

Starting Pitchers
New York: Burnett (4-2, 3.38 ERA)
Tampa Bay: Price (5-3, 3.12 ERA)
NY Yankees:
Over is 36-16-3 in NYY last 55 on astroturf.
NYY are 4-9 in their last 13 Mon. games.

Tampa Bay:
TB are 11-3 in their last 14 Mon. games.
Under is 39-13-1 in TB last 53 home games.
TB are 22-8 in their last 30 overall.



Projection: 2-5 Tampa wins

Play Tampa to win or Tampa -1.5

______________________________
Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers
Toronto: Drabek (2-2, 4.81 ERA)
Detroit: Scherzer (6-0, 3.20 ERA)

Detroit:
DET are 10-1 in their last 11 overall.
Over is 19-7-1 in DET last 27 Mon. games.
DET are 7-1 in Scherzers last 8 starts.

Play tigers to win

[SUPREME]

Hey Kob, just wanted to remind you that you're a great and underrated capper. You tend to be overlooked in the forum, but I take your analysis' along with SJ's and BL's, daily. Keep up the good work and clean analysis'

[Banks84]

i second supreme's comments. i like to follow You, SJ and LC for advice, and my bodog bankroll has been doing great since mar1st. keep it up boys!

[kobstopa]

Hey Kob, just wanted to remind you that you're a great and underrated capper. You tend to be overlooked in the forum, but I take your analysis' along with SJ's and BL's, daily. Keep up the good work and clean analysis'

tx you for dropping by, i miss the regular season pace already, im used to 7-10 games a day, man can't wait for 2012 season.

[kobstopa]

i second supreme's comments. i like to follow You, SJ and LC for advice, and my bodog bankroll has been doing great since mar1st. keep it up boys!

thank you, good to hear you're doing alright. This is part of the reason I do what I do, to contribute in some way and helping people out there make some profit, have some fun while get on with their daily life. I really don't care about top rank, bottom rank, cause I love basketball too much for that.

[kobstopa]

Miami at Chicago
As expected, the Bulls out rebounded the Heats and worn them out toward the end. The heats will adjust themselves in the coming game with perhaps a different line up in the front-line. I suspect they will need physical up by bring in Dampier or opt a bigger minutes with Ilgauskas. Also can expect more minutes with Haslem at forward. For this purpose, we can see a slower heats which the Bulls can much obligate and we'll have more half-court pace. Remember the Bulls will like this situation more than the heats, given Miami is deadly with transitions (for those who are convinced go back to your tape and look at game 1 first's half again).
Other concern for the heats is their bench, no truth in that, they have enough shooters here, but they're shooting their own foot for not utilize deep enough and build confident in players such as Eddie House to be part of rotations. This guy was a big time 6th man for Boston at one point, they were happy to have acquired him for this purpose. Other adjustment, we should see Bron starts take a few jumpshots of the screen.

As for the Bulls, we can expect a solid production again from their bench at home. Rose will have a 20-10 game, protect the ball well with a low turn over. So overall, it should be a solid and more physical game than last game, as we'll see the heats will push hard to try take away one on the road, game 2 is a game 7 for them.

Take total under 181.5
Take heats +0.5 in the first half

[kobstopa]

[ATTACH]27797[/ATTACH]


OKC at Dallas - West Finals Game 1
And here we go, the sprint is on to the finishing line. Dirk and the Mavs been here before & looks like a beautiful familiar journey to the ultimate goal, everything fall into places, the evil Lakers is gone, no Kobe to worry about. However, the Heats is still lurking in the east.

But there's a simple, yet interesting factor in this series: Dallas had gone 8-0 ATS at home + a solid home court in regular season, they play consistent defense and their offense too is solid in production form from a combination of deep bench + a good starting five. Overall they really well together in a ten or more possible rotations/team configurations at any one time; now that is massive and that's why they had escaped Portland and LA a week earlier without a sweat.

As for OKC, this is their first conference final and they had earned it but yet to have their first trip to the finals.
At this point their roster is deep enough to challenge Dallas in every positions, except a few key bench. As expected, they are a young team but can play solid defense and can put up a good offense to have a decent series. The only one concern for them is KD has a tendency to go cold and point blank with his shooting on the road against tier one defense.

Oklahoma City:
Over is 18-7-1 in OKC last 26 Tue. games.
OKC are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.
Over is 7-3 in OKC last 10 vs. NBA Southwest.

Dallas:
DAL are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games.
DAL are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.

As for this game, we have two good jump shooting teams match up full of energy can go with a fast pace transitions. Together with my theorem: 2011 series opening game goes over 80% or better. Taking over 191.5 is the way to go. At home Dallas will setup for 3's specialists: the Jet, Dirk, and Stojakovic to drill it from downtown. We can at least expect the Mavs to cover the line for the opener. At least I don't think we'll see Dallas eats OKC like a happy hour meals, not yet anyway.


Take Dal (-5.5)/Over 191.5

oh, booya, the over is on track, 90 + 79 Dallas end 3rd. Will need a 33 point quarters to go over here.

[kobstopa]

[ATTACH]27797[/ATTACH]


OKC at Dallas - West Finals Game 1

Take Dal (-5.5)/Over 191.5
121 112 Dallas

MJ Dirk 48 points & set a no miss 24-24 ft record.

update

[Love The Action]

Opening game over trend is our friend

Congrats...will you be on the under with me tonight?

[kobstopa]

Opening game over trend is our friend

Congrats...will you be on the under with me tonight?

Hi LT,
Hell ya, will go under
and i'm lean toward the Heats on pulling an upset as well, gl

[Love The Action]

Hi LT,
Hell ya, will go under
and i'm lean toward the Heats on pulling an upset as well, gl

Glad to hear it! Let's get this one...I like it a lot. And I do expect a much closer game, although I think the Bulls still pull it out. I think we are going to see a classic series, where each team defends its home court and the Bulls win at home in game 7. Good luck tonight bud!

[kobstopa]

MLB
____________________________________
Detroit (22-19, 11-11 away) at Red Sox (21-20, 12-9 home)
Two winning teams at a collision course. But Boston Buchholz should step up at home.

Starting Pitchers

Detroit: Coke (1-5, 4.54 ERA)
Boston: Buchholz (4-3, 3.94 ERA)


Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Tigers are 1-4 in Cokes last 5 starts.

Red Sox are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
Red Sox are 10-2 in Buchholzs last 12 starts vs. American League Central.
Red Sox are 16-5 in Buchholzs last 21 starts during game 1 of a series.
Red Sox are 6-2 in Buchholzs last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Red Sox are 5-2 in Buchholzs last 7 Wednesday starts.


O/U
Over is 4-0 in Cokes last 4 starts on grass.
Over is 4-0 in Cokes last 4 road starts.
Over is 5-0 in Cokes last 5 starts overall.

Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 4-1-1 in Red Sox last 6 during game 1 of a series.

Over is 4-1 in Buchholzs last 5 Wednesday starts.
Over is 4-1 in Buchholzs last 5 home starts.


Take Boston to win.
Take Over 9.5 runs

____________________________________
Pittsburgh (18-23, 11-12 away) at Cincinnati Reds(25-17, 15-9 home)
Red should feel right at home and go for L6. Also holding a 20-10 record NL central Div.

Starting Pitchers
Pittsburgh: Morton (4-1, 3.13 ERA)
Cincinnati: Arroyo (3-3, 3.78 ERA)

O/U

Over is 6-1 in Pirates last 7 road games vs. home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 4-1-1 in Arroyos last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 on grass.
Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 vs. National League Central.
Over is 6-0 in Reds last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 during game 1 of a series.

Take over 8.5 runs

____________________________________
Twins(13-27, 9-16 away) at Oakland Athletics (22-20, 11-10 home)
Athletics is warming up their bat, despite Pavano's solid patching past.

Starting Pitchers
Minnesota: Pavano (2-4, 5.89 ERA)
Oakland: McCarthy (1-4, 3.34 ERA)

Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 Wednesday games.
Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Over is 6-1 in Pavanos last 7 road starts.
Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 Wednesday games.

Over is 3-0-1 in Athletics last 4 overall.
Over is 3-0-1 in Athletics last 4 on grass.
Over is 3-0-1 in Athletics last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 3-0-1 in Athletics last 4 games following a win.
Over is 3-0-1 in Athletics last 4 home games.
Over is 4-1 in Athletics last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.


Take over 7.5 runs

____________________________________

[kobstopa]

Miami at Chicago


Take total under 181.5 85 75 Heats
Take heats +0.5 in the first half half score: 48 46 heats

updated, one down one 2 go. 2 4 2

[Love The Action]

These refs are stealing our money Kob...if it's wasn't for these refs, you could take at least ten points off the board right now.

[kobstopa]

These refs are stealing our money Kob...if it's wasn't for these refs, you could take at least ten points off the board right now.

I know, i cashed already over 91.5 at the half with last minute bet & heats +0.5. It's the 2nd half that where points are drastically cut down, we are still on track.

I added a 1/4 unit during half, under 183.5/heats +1.5. so plenty of value here.

[Love The Action]

Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm very confident in the play. Just frustrated with the poor officiating. Let's cash it!

[kobstopa]

Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm very confident in the play. Just frustrated with the poor officiating. Let's cash it!

will need a 46 points or less 4th qrt here, this cant be ugly, too free threw. Hold our breath here for 12 mins.

[Love The Action]

Great day..congrats

[kobstopa]

Great day..congrats

good team work, good collaboration,

[kobstopa]

[ATTACH]27927[/ATTACH]

OKC at Dallas
Brace for another big game & history to repeat itself at Dallas downtown, Dirk will get his 30 points, while KD with a 36 points efforts. The Mavs is 12 ATS cover during playoff and will certain to once more cover the line at home. We can expect a defensive mind set coming to this game but once the crowd erupted, emotional fuel the plays and points will start to rack up inline with level of confident, it's no looking back, this is when the defensive gap would start to slip. But it doesn't matter this is western conference basketball, catch offensive shooting rhythm, knock it down & let your foe plays to catch up. We can expect a balance of attack and scoring load by both teams.


Dallas (-5.5)
Total Over 200.5


today official: B. Spooner T. Washington G. Willard, all three are some what favorable under
Total record: 195-204.5 O/U: 8-10,10-13, 11-10

break even

[kobstopa]

____________________________________
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Starting Pitchers
Pittsburgh: McDonald (2-3, 6.20 ERA)
Cincinnati: Cueto (2-0, 0.00 ERA)

Over is 7-1 in Cuetos last 8 starts vs. PIT.
CIN are 7-2 in Cuetos last 9 starts vs. PIT.Reds are 4-0 in their last 4
when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Reds are 8-1 in their last 9 games following a loss.
Reds are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Reds are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Reds are 7-1 in their last 8 home games.


Take Cincinnati /over 7.5 runs

____________________________________
Tampa Bay at Toronto

Starting Pitchers
Tampa Bay: Davis (4-3, 3.47 ERA)
Toronto: Romero (3-4, 3.35 ERA)

Rays are 14-3 in their last 17 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rays are 12-3 in their last 15 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rays are 6-1 in Davis' last 7 road starts.
Rays are 5-1 in Davis' last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
Rays are 5-1 in Davis' last 6 starts.

Blue Jays are 3-7 in Romeros last 10 starts with 5 days of rest.
Blue Jays are 2-5 in Romeros last 7 starts.
Blue Jays are 1-4 in Romeros last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.


Take Tampa to win

____________________________________
LA Angels (22-22) at Seattle (18-24)
Haren should shut Seattle down.

Starting Pitchers
Los Angeles: Haren (4-2, 1.93 ERA)
Seattle: Fister (2-4, 3.22 ERA)

Take LAA to win


____________________________________

[joeytunes]

liking the over in dallas...screw that ref shit

[kobstopa]

liking the over in dallas...screw that ref shit

good luck i think so too

[kobstopa]

add
OKC at Dallas
Dallas -2.5 at the half


the Mavs played stupid & over confident basketball. I hope they learned from it the hard way again.

[alon7777777]

GL kobstopa like your plays

[kobstopa]

GL kobstopa like your plays

thank you & you too

[kobstopa]

[ATTACH]27927[/ATTACH]

OKC at Dallas
Brace for another big game & history to repeat itself at Dallas downtown, Dirk will get his 30 points, while KD with a 36 points efforts. The Mavs is 12 ATS cover during playoff and will certain to once more cover the line at home. We can expect a defensive mind set coming to this game but once the crowd erupted, emotional fuel the plays and points will start to rack up inline with level of confident, it's no looking back, this is when the defensive gap would start to slip. But it doesn't matter this is western conference basketball, catch offensive shooting rhythm, knock it down & let your foe plays to catch up. We can expect a balance of attack and scoring load by both teams.


Dallas (-5.5)
Total Over 200.5


today official: B. Spooner T. Washington G. Willard, all three are some what favorable under
Total record: 195-204.5 O/U: 8-10,10-13, 11-10

break even

a hugh victory for OKC, it won't be easy for the Mavs to win in G3 but they can try in G4. Now I think this will be a good set up for under total in game 3. I think the line between 190 to 196, but if under 188 then over total is a good play. till then we have a look out for more to come.

[kobstopa]

_______delete

[kobstopa]

Inter-league Games
_______________________________
Houston (15-29) at Toronto (22-21)
tough match up for Houston, Astro is on a slide 4 games road trip, currently 6-16 away and try to make it the very next day at red hot Blue Jays, sound like a mix of alcohol and firearms. Jose Bautista vs Carlos Lee, each should smack a home or two.

Starting Pitchers
Houston: Rodriguez (0-2, 6.26 ERA)
Toronto: Reyes (0-3, 4.75 ERA)

TOR are 7-1 in their last 8 overall.
TOR are 24-6 in their last 30 Fri. games.
Over is 9-3 in TOR last 12 Fri. games.

Take Toronto -1.5
Take over 9.5 runs

_______________________________
Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona: Kennedy is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA his last six.

Starting Pitchers
Minnesota: Duensing (2-3, 4.61 ERA)
Arizona: Kennedy (4-1, 3.05 ERA)

Take Under 8.5 Runs

_______________________________
Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers
Chicago: Davis (0-1, 1.80 ERA)
Boston: Lester (5-1, 3.28 ERA)

Take Over 8.5 Runs or optional - (Boston /Over 8.5 Runs)
Cubs 5 Red Sox 15 Final
_______________________________

[Love The Action]

Nice play on the over yesterday. I like the under in game 3 & just put 10x at under 202.

I also like the mavs and bulls in both game 3's. How about you? Bol...

[MrXYZ]

Hi Kob, I notice you don't get much attention on this forum. I follow your NBA plays from time to time, thanks for sharing as I've learnt heaps from guys like you who take the tine to post their hard work so we can all learn (& profit). Being at the stage where half my plays are tails & the other half are the results of my own analysis, it's much appreciated.

I had OKC/DAL game 2 going over & though it wasn't a no brainer, had the higher probability of hitting. Game 3 is 201 at my book, under might be the play this time.

[kobstopa]

Nice play on the over yesterday. I like the under in game 3 & just put 10x at under 202.

I also like the mavs and bulls in both game 3's. How about you? Bol...

I'm leaning toward under, 4 days ago with my est line at 197 & capp at 192.
In game 3 it wont be easy for these teams to win, especially at heats where haslem will rally emotional home crowd with a standing ovation with his return; bulls' pockets KK vs Heats pockets AA, they need to get lucky, don't forget also bulls had a bad road record against tier one teams but let's hope it doesn't count in playoff.
Their chance to win on road I say is better in game 4 then 3. Gl

[kobstopa]

Hi Kob, I notice you don't get much attention on this forum. I follow your NBA plays from time to time, thanks for sharing as I've learnt heaps from guys like you who take the tine to post their hard work so we can all learn (& profit). Being at the stage where half my plays are tails & the other half are the results of my own analysis, it's much appreciated.

I had OKC/DAL game 2 going over & though it wasn't a no brainer, had the higher probability of hitting. Game 3 is 201 at my book, under might be the play this time.

Howdy,
It's easy now, we had plenty of people miss the over picks. It's good that you should always incorporate with your own analysis & seeing thing from different angles where possible, but at the same time be philosophical enough not to over analyze over a simple & straight forward choice.

I think game 3 under total is the play, cause Dal plays a more tight defense on the road & more desperate in a hostile non-home court envir + okc like to play d at home, you'll see a few 40 points quarters here and there in 2nd half.

Also it makes sense to go with over total play in the first half, as the pace was/is faster at the start when they all come out & fire up with energy, still feel out & adjusting, higher FG % etc.

Good luck with your play

[kobstopa]

Dallas at OKC
Renewal of defensive efforts is underway by both teams, we can expect FG % return to 43% or less, whilst Westbrook benched in game 2 could lead to a disruptive issue for OKC, but return home with a level 1-1 still make them in driver's seat in this series. They are physical and deep enough interior to hold out the Mavs at home in game 3.

KD will step up and maintain the lead in scoring department, he had shown he can deliver a knock out in critical moment despite difficult look at the basket from outside or high screen. Harden is questionable with head injuries, but they will reach deep to another bench player to step up if needed.

Take OKC -1.5 at the half
Take OKC -2.5
Total under 201.5